Wednesday, August 01, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Wave in Atlantic at ~13N, 56W. August 1.

I don't normally send out something unless the system is at least a
tropical depression or tropical storm, but after a number of replies to
the entry on TS Chantal asking about this wave, here is a short report.
This is mostly for those in the US Virgin Islands, Windward Islands etc
and those with connections down there at the moment.

This wave has been struggling to develop for many days now, but there is
some rotation with the convective activity - more than yesterday. Also
since yesterday, this system started to take a slightly more
north-westward path. It is over warm water, greater than 28 degs. and
will remain over warm water as it moves forward. The wind shear is
slight at the moment, but it is heading into a region of increasing
shear. One thing that is keeping it at bay is that it is in a region
with a lot of dry air to the north and northwest. Actually in general,
there has been a lot of dry air over the North Atlantic this year, and
although there are waves with a lot of circulation they just haven't
been able to develop.

The National Hurricane Center might send a plane in to investigate later
today if it looks like developing. Even if it doesn't develop any
further, it looks like it will bring some much needed rain to the VI in
a couple of days.

I'll send out another blurb (technical term :) ) if things change.

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.

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