Tuesday, August 14, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Dean: August 14, Update B

Woohoo... let the fun begin. Now this is what I would consider the real
start to the season (o.k. so T.S. Barry was here on June 1 and wasn't a
bad little storm either).

TD4 was officially upgraded to TS Dean. The NHC have shifted his
location slightly farther south - I agree with this move. This also
means that the forecast track has shifted southwards, and for now I also
agree more with this track than their previous track. I still don't
expect this storm to intensify too much more today, and he's not
forecast to reach hurricane strength for a few days yet which sounds
reasonable to me. The convection is still to the west (and also to the
south) of the circulation because there is still some wind shear, and
there hasn't been any change in the water temperature he is moving over.

The high pressure system I mentioned yesterday is still in place, which
is keeping the storm on its westward track (and actually was why it
moved a bit farther south) - he will stay on this westward track (maybe
moving a little north or south from time to time) for the next few days.
It's too soon to say how strong he will get or where he will go - the
intensity will depend on the track, and that depends on what point the
high pressure erodes. At the moment, we wait and see.

One thing I want to point out is that the sea surface temperatures in
the Atlantic and the Caribbean are currently near or below average for
this time of year than the long term average. This is a good thing and
should help to keep these storms somewhat subdued.

I'll send another update out tomorrow unless there's a big change in
anything. Have a nice day. :)
(This and previous posts are available at


These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.

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