Hurricane Earl:
My, but Earl is a big boy, isn't he? The NHC seem to have kept him as a cat 4 storm with winds of 135mph (cat 4 range: 131-155mph) even though he lost an eye. I don't think I've seen a cat 4 with no eye before. Personally, I think he decreased in intensity for a few hours there, but is getting back up to cat 4 level now. It looks like there were two reasons for the decrease. First, his southern edge was interacting with both Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. And second, he has been experiencing wind shear from the southwest. You can see a band of clouds streaming off to the northeast in satellite images of Earl.
He is currently at 22.5N, 69.1W, with a central pressure of 940mb and max winds of 135 mph. He's now moving NW at 14mph, and hurricane watches have been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast. The new definition of a hurricane "watch" (for the 2010 season), by the way, is that hurricane conditions are expected within 48 hours - the new bit is that the lead time has been extended. Whether or not his center clips the Cape Hatteras region, other parts of the state will get some windy weather. At the moment hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles from the center, and Tropical Storm winds can be felt up to 200 miles away. And he still has to get to that Gulf Stream. As for convection. Yes. Lots of it - thunder and lightning and possible tornadoes in parts of the storm.
At his current location, water temperatures are over 29 deg C, with 26.5 deg C temperatures in the upper 75-100m of the water column. The vorticity in the atmosphere is quite impressive... the upper troposphere has circulation comparable to a strong Tropical Storm near the surface (where vorticity is usually greatest). So still a major storm and one that has a tenacious hold, and I don't think the wind shear will do much to change that.
From Tom J. on St. Thomas, sent around 5.30pm his time:
"We will not have electrical power for a few days till they clear many downed trees, limbs, on top of some of the wires all over the island.......a few poles are down, several transformers blown...........we got off easy with this storm considering that it went to a cat 4 so fast..........damm lucky."
I assume those in NC are preparing. As I said at some point today, the rest of the states should also be getting ready to be getting prepared... (ok, it's late over here, that sentence makes sense in my head! ;-)).
Tropical Storm Fiona:
It doesn't look like we'll see the Fujiwara Effect any time soon. Earl kept pushing Fiona away today. He probably didn't want to share his chocolate bar. Awww. She is looking quite blobette-like again, and I agree with the plane that went in and could barely find a Tropical Storm. Although there's a fair bit of convection (heavy rain and thundery weather), her circulation seems to be east of that. And although there is some circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere, it is west of the circulation in the middle of the troposphere (all these easts and wests - very confusing, no? ;-)). The bottom line is that they indicate (to me anyway) that some sort of shearing has occured from the north and west at some levels in the atmosphere, and I'd say that was Earl's fault.
She's 'centered' at 16.8N, 58.7W (it's tricky seeing an actual center in the midst of the blobetteness that is Fiona). She's moving WNW at 20mph, and the convection will soon reach the leeward islands. Wind speed is kept at 40mph (just so she can still be called a TS, even if she isn't really one), with a central pressure of 1006 mb. She's also over water of 29 + deg C, with warm water of over 26.5 deg C in the upper 100m. At this rate, she might dissipate once she's reached the islands. Wouldn't that be nice.
And now for something (almost) completely different: (Monty Python)
OK... so I'm travelling to another planet (Atlanta, Georgia) tomorrow. I was hoping that no-one would notice if I didn't write anything this week. Bother. I thought it was a good plan. With hindsight, maybe not the best idea to try it out in September though. Oops. ;-) Anyway, with exasperating Earl out there and with friends and readers in a number of states on the eastern US seaboard, I will activate some form of interplanetary communication at least once a day to chat about whatever is out there. Don't be surprised though if you see random sentences about aliens wandering around looking for a lift (er... elevator). ;-)
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Hurricane Earl & Tropical Storm Fiona: August 31, Update B
Just a short lunchtime update as interesting things are afoot (and aloft) in the Atlantic.
Earl is still a cat 5, but is slowly slowing down in forward speed. He's now moving at 13mph. Meanwhile, Fiona is still a weak Tropical Storm, but is increasing/moving quickly in forward speed along the same path as Earl (now at 24mph). The two are already interacting, but the question is how much, and in what form...
One scenario we might see is called the Fujiwara Effect (or a Fujiwara Interaction). Basically, if we have two rotating cyclones and they get close to each other (with the western one moving slower than the eastern one) then they start to rotate around each other and around a point between the two systems. Eventually they will spiral in to that central point and merge. This is more frequently seen in the Pacific, but once every few years it happens in the Atlantic. The last time seems to be in 1995 between Iris and Karen.
Another option is straightforward absorption - if Fiona gets much closer, Earl may 'absorb' her.
Yet another scenario is that Fiona slows down, and retains her identity.
Her leading edge is approaching the Leeward Islands now so she is very close to Earl. This proximity complicates everything and I don't know quite how this will play out in terms of track or intensity yet. I'll send another update later.
J.
Disclaimer: read the last one cos I'm sending this via phone & can't get hold of it. But basically - these are my opinions, not those of anyone I represent & listen to your emergency managers, NHC & weather service as they have the best/most up-to-date info.
Earl is still a cat 5, but is slowly slowing down in forward speed. He's now moving at 13mph. Meanwhile, Fiona is still a weak Tropical Storm, but is increasing/moving quickly in forward speed along the same path as Earl (now at 24mph). The two are already interacting, but the question is how much, and in what form...
One scenario we might see is called the Fujiwara Effect (or a Fujiwara Interaction). Basically, if we have two rotating cyclones and they get close to each other (with the western one moving slower than the eastern one) then they start to rotate around each other and around a point between the two systems. Eventually they will spiral in to that central point and merge. This is more frequently seen in the Pacific, but once every few years it happens in the Atlantic. The last time seems to be in 1995 between Iris and Karen.
Another option is straightforward absorption - if Fiona gets much closer, Earl may 'absorb' her.
Yet another scenario is that Fiona slows down, and retains her identity.
Her leading edge is approaching the Leeward Islands now so she is very close to Earl. This proximity complicates everything and I don't know quite how this will play out in terms of track or intensity yet. I'll send another update later.
J.
Disclaimer: read the last one cos I'm sending this via phone & can't get hold of it. But basically - these are my opinions, not those of anyone I represent & listen to your emergency managers, NHC & weather service as they have the best/most up-to-date info.
Hurricane Earl, Post-Tropical Storm Danielle, Tropical Storm Fiona: August 31, Update A
Post-Tropical Storm Danielle:
After my last entry, she was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and then downgraded to a 'Post Tropical Storm'. That's god enough for me. This is my last entry on Danielle, who was much better behaved than Earl! :-)
Hurricane Earl:
He's at 19.9N, 66.2W, with winds of 135mph making him a cat 4 (range of cat 4: 131-155mph). He's moving WNW at 14mph, with a low central pressure of 933mb. He has not got to the Gulf Stream yet, so it looks like he might intensify further at that point. The importance of crossing the Gulf Stream is that it is a source of deep warm water. It skirts the US east coast from Florida to North Carolina, then breaks away and flows out into the Atlantic.
But before getting there, there's a chance he'll weaken a bit. His convection isn't as strong as I've seen for some cat 4s, and it's possible that it will get reduced by some small interaction with Hispaniola. There's also a bit of wind shear ahead of him - I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have though, given how strong he is.
At the moment I'd say I think he's going to clip the US coastline - North Carolina. And when I say clip, I mean the eye... which means that even further inland will feel the effects of a strong hurricane. The current forecast path then has him moving along the NE coast towards New York and New England. It's possible that he won't be as severe (i.e. not a cat 4 or 5) by the time he gets to that northern part of the US because he will have interacted with land.
From St. Thomas (Tom J.):
It is 11:30PM HERE AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE STRONG AND GUSTY THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM BLOWING FROM THE NORTH..........THE LEADING EDGE OF EARL SEEMED TO BE THE WORST OF THE GUSTY WINDS BUT DID NOT LAST QUITE AS LONG AS WHEN THE WIND SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH TO BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH............WE ARE TOLD HEAVY RAIN IS OUR REWARD FOR HAVING MISSED A VISIT FROM THE EYE OF EARL.........WITH NO POWER, AND 85 DEGREES F. THINGS ARE QUITE FUNKY HERE IN THE HOUSE WHERE IT IS STILL A BIT UNWISE TO OPEN WINDOWS...........GOOD THING FOR GENERATORS WHICH ARE RUNNING FOR THE HOUSE EVERY FEW HOURS TO CONSERVE GASOLINE..........fIONA IS NEXT..........THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS HEALTHY WITH NO MENTION FROM THE NHL AT THIS HOUR
From experience, I've also often found the south side of a storm to be more damaging than the north, despite theory.
Good luck to those in the VIs! I hope there's time to recover before Fiona comes knocking on your door.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She went from an area of invest directly to Tropical Storm status, with no mention of an official Tropical Depression. Anyway, at least she's officially a storm now. Low wind shear, low level circulation is slowly improving, but nothing in the higher levels at the moment. Convection is slowly improving. Current winds are 40mph, so she's barely a Tropical Storm. She's zooming westward at 23 mph, central pressure 1007mb. Location around 15.5N. 51.8W.
More on all of the above (except Danielle) later... must get into work!
Toodles,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
After my last entry, she was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and then downgraded to a 'Post Tropical Storm'. That's god enough for me. This is my last entry on Danielle, who was much better behaved than Earl! :-)
Hurricane Earl:
He's at 19.9N, 66.2W, with winds of 135mph making him a cat 4 (range of cat 4: 131-155mph). He's moving WNW at 14mph, with a low central pressure of 933mb. He has not got to the Gulf Stream yet, so it looks like he might intensify further at that point. The importance of crossing the Gulf Stream is that it is a source of deep warm water. It skirts the US east coast from Florida to North Carolina, then breaks away and flows out into the Atlantic.
But before getting there, there's a chance he'll weaken a bit. His convection isn't as strong as I've seen for some cat 4s, and it's possible that it will get reduced by some small interaction with Hispaniola. There's also a bit of wind shear ahead of him - I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have though, given how strong he is.
At the moment I'd say I think he's going to clip the US coastline - North Carolina. And when I say clip, I mean the eye... which means that even further inland will feel the effects of a strong hurricane. The current forecast path then has him moving along the NE coast towards New York and New England. It's possible that he won't be as severe (i.e. not a cat 4 or 5) by the time he gets to that northern part of the US because he will have interacted with land.
From St. Thomas (Tom J.):
It is 11:30PM HERE AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE STRONG AND GUSTY THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM BLOWING FROM THE NORTH..........THE LEADING EDGE OF EARL SEEMED TO BE THE WORST OF THE GUSTY WINDS BUT DID NOT LAST QUITE AS LONG AS WHEN THE WIND SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH TO BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH............WE ARE TOLD HEAVY RAIN IS OUR REWARD FOR HAVING MISSED A VISIT FROM THE EYE OF EARL.........WITH NO POWER, AND 85 DEGREES F. THINGS ARE QUITE FUNKY HERE IN THE HOUSE WHERE IT IS STILL A BIT UNWISE TO OPEN WINDOWS...........GOOD THING FOR GENERATORS WHICH ARE RUNNING FOR THE HOUSE EVERY FEW HOURS TO CONSERVE GASOLINE..........fIONA IS NEXT..........THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS HEALTHY WITH NO MENTION FROM THE NHL AT THIS HOUR
From experience, I've also often found the south side of a storm to be more damaging than the north, despite theory.
Good luck to those in the VIs! I hope there's time to recover before Fiona comes knocking on your door.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She went from an area of invest directly to Tropical Storm status, with no mention of an official Tropical Depression. Anyway, at least she's officially a storm now. Low wind shear, low level circulation is slowly improving, but nothing in the higher levels at the moment. Convection is slowly improving. Current winds are 40mph, so she's barely a Tropical Storm. She's zooming westward at 23 mph, central pressure 1007mb. Location around 15.5N. 51.8W.
More on all of the above (except Danielle) later... must get into work!
Toodles,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 30, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Hurricane Earl, and the Atlantic Blobette: August 30, Update B
Hurricane Earl:
Hurricane Earl is officially a strong cat 3 storm with winds of 125 mph (range: 111-130mph), central pressure of 955mb. His center is at about 19.1N, 64.4W, and according to the NHC he's moving WNW at 15mph. His eye isn't as clear as I'd expect from a storm of that magnitude (although it is clearing up as I write this). And he just had a 'wobble' (they do that sometimes) which took him from a WNW track to a W track. He's back to WNW, but there's a chance that his eye is going to pass a little closer to the US VIs (maybe around 60-70 miles).
Reports from St. Thomas (from Tom J.):
About 7am their time (6am EST): "Our electric is out already as trees are down pulling wires with them.....not enough wind to justify no power but hurricanes are never accomodating.........as of 655am we are just seeing bands roll in with some gusty wind and light rain till the band passes........on computer bat so keeping it short.......not sure how long internet connection will last so that will depend on you getting messages..........we heard that the next storm is still on track."
9.38am their time:
"at 9:38am it is mostly just sporadic rain showers with some (not much gusty wind)..............as the storm moves westard the VI is getting nearer to the inner band of Earl which has steady winds which is due here around noon..........should be 50mph or so for a few hours...........being on the south side of the eye is saving us from the pounding of the higher force winds...........we hope to LUCK OUT on this one.........any tracking data on the next system in a few days?.........power has been restored for now but will probably go off when the steady winds hit.........I will try communicating when possible"
About 3.30pm their time (it got to me after an hour or so delay):
"Earl is now 63 miles north of us and there is barely any wind or rain here..........the satellite pictures are scary looking but the worse part of the storm so far has been losing electricity.......so being on the south side of this storm is the key to having a big BBQ with plenty of beer while the monster passes........perhaps if the storm coming up on us is this forboding there will be free Ribs and Coronas for all!"
I've also had a couple of queries about if this will head to North Carolina. I know I told you guys in NC to keep an eye on this one a few days ago and I still think that. It's too soon to say. I think it's a possiblity that NC will get clipped, even though the center of the cone takes him out to sea - you are in the cone. Everyone in the cone should keep an eye on him. He's been tracking very slightly farther west than the forecast track from the beginning. There's a small chance he'll slow down (and have a few extra banana daiquiris), which will change a few things. I'll let you know as soon as I have a better idea.
Hurricane Danielle:
Although the NHC still have her as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 75mph and central pressure of 970mb, I really think she's less than that. She still has a pretty good circulation in the lower troposphere, but in the mid-to-upper levels she's become more like a front. She's moving NE at 16mph. Her center is at 41N, 50W, but she's over water temperatures of 23-24 deg C. Brrr. Too cold to sustain a storm, which requires at least 26.5 deg C. I need to get a cup of tea to warm up just thinking of those temperatures! And there is next to NO convection in this system - just a bunch of rotating clouds with barely enough water to scare a cat! I think she's a Subtropical Storm.
Atlantic Blobette:
This is still looking a little too wonky to be a Tropical Storm, but a Tropical Depression would fit. There is closed circulation and it has improved during the day, and it certainly has way more heavy rain and thunderstorms than Danielle has had for the last day! I estimate the center to be around 15N, 47.6W and it's moving W at 20mph. Water temps are 28 deg C. Still not sure why it's not been upgraded to an 'L' on the NHC map, although it is listed as having a 90% chance and plane and satellite data both indicate that Tropical Storm force winds are detected in a small area of the storm. Maybe they'll go straight to naming it once it's on top of the northern Leeward Islands because those guys already have their hurricane preparations in place and their shutters up so they won't need any advanced warning, right? Sigh.
At the moment it looks like this one will continue west and there's a chance it may pass south of Earl's track. It's not as strong as Earl was at this location (I think), partly maybe because Earl is having a bit of an influence on it.
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Earl is officially a strong cat 3 storm with winds of 125 mph (range: 111-130mph), central pressure of 955mb. His center is at about 19.1N, 64.4W, and according to the NHC he's moving WNW at 15mph. His eye isn't as clear as I'd expect from a storm of that magnitude (although it is clearing up as I write this). And he just had a 'wobble' (they do that sometimes) which took him from a WNW track to a W track. He's back to WNW, but there's a chance that his eye is going to pass a little closer to the US VIs (maybe around 60-70 miles).
Reports from St. Thomas (from Tom J.):
About 7am their time (6am EST): "Our electric is out already as trees are down pulling wires with them.....not enough wind to justify no power but hurricanes are never accomodating.........as of 655am we are just seeing bands roll in with some gusty wind and light rain till the band passes........on computer bat so keeping it short.......not sure how long internet connection will last so that will depend on you getting messages..........we heard that the next storm is still on track."
9.38am their time:
"at 9:38am it is mostly just sporadic rain showers with some (not much gusty wind)..............as the storm moves westard the VI is getting nearer to the inner band of Earl which has steady winds which is due here around noon..........should be 50mph or so for a few hours...........being on the south side of the eye is saving us from the pounding of the higher force winds...........we hope to LUCK OUT on this one.........any tracking data on the next system in a few days?.........power has been restored for now but will probably go off when the steady winds hit.........I will try communicating when possible"
About 3.30pm their time (it got to me after an hour or so delay):
"Earl is now 63 miles north of us and there is barely any wind or rain here..........the satellite pictures are scary looking but the worse part of the storm so far has been losing electricity.......so being on the south side of this storm is the key to having a big BBQ with plenty of beer while the monster passes........perhaps if the storm coming up on us is this forboding there will be free Ribs and Coronas for all!"
I've also had a couple of queries about if this will head to North Carolina. I know I told you guys in NC to keep an eye on this one a few days ago and I still think that. It's too soon to say. I think it's a possiblity that NC will get clipped, even though the center of the cone takes him out to sea - you are in the cone. Everyone in the cone should keep an eye on him. He's been tracking very slightly farther west than the forecast track from the beginning. There's a small chance he'll slow down (and have a few extra banana daiquiris), which will change a few things. I'll let you know as soon as I have a better idea.
Hurricane Danielle:
Although the NHC still have her as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 75mph and central pressure of 970mb, I really think she's less than that. She still has a pretty good circulation in the lower troposphere, but in the mid-to-upper levels she's become more like a front. She's moving NE at 16mph. Her center is at 41N, 50W, but she's over water temperatures of 23-24 deg C. Brrr. Too cold to sustain a storm, which requires at least 26.5 deg C. I need to get a cup of tea to warm up just thinking of those temperatures! And there is next to NO convection in this system - just a bunch of rotating clouds with barely enough water to scare a cat! I think she's a Subtropical Storm.
Atlantic Blobette:
This is still looking a little too wonky to be a Tropical Storm, but a Tropical Depression would fit. There is closed circulation and it has improved during the day, and it certainly has way more heavy rain and thunderstorms than Danielle has had for the last day! I estimate the center to be around 15N, 47.6W and it's moving W at 20mph. Water temps are 28 deg C. Still not sure why it's not been upgraded to an 'L' on the NHC map, although it is listed as having a 90% chance and plane and satellite data both indicate that Tropical Storm force winds are detected in a small area of the storm. Maybe they'll go straight to naming it once it's on top of the northern Leeward Islands because those guys already have their hurricane preparations in place and their shutters up so they won't need any advanced warning, right? Sigh.
At the moment it looks like this one will continue west and there's a chance it may pass south of Earl's track. It's not as strong as Earl was at this location (I think), partly maybe because Earl is having a bit of an influence on it.
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Earl: August 30, Update A
Just a quick note on Earl as he is now a cat 2 storm with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) and is pretty much on top of the northern leeward islands. Central pressure is 969mb, and he's moving WNW at 15mph. Location is about 18.1N, 62W. His eye is to the north, but the convection remains strong in all quadrants, with the greater part to the south and west of the eye because of remnant winds from Danielle from the north and east. If he stays on the forecast track, he'll pass north of the US VIs by about 80-90 miles (I agree with Tom J. in that estimate - see below). However, the forecast also has Earl as a major cat 3 hurricane as he passes north of the VIs, so the convection will still be strong, even at that distance. Currently, Tropical Storm force winds are estimated to be within 175 miles from the center, and hurricane force within 50 miles. Circulation is good over the entire troposphere, although still not as strong as Danielle.
I got this from Tom J. (St. Thomas) yesterday evening (his evening): "we are about buttoned down with a few last minute things to complete in the daylight of morning........if the projected path turns to reality we should be OK with the eye over 90 miles to the north..........I'm ready for some FISH AND CHIPS!!"
I know some of you have friends and families on assorted islands in that corner of the Caribbean. I'll post anything else I hear later today.
You can follow the rainbands and see his eye from the radars on the islands. Here's one from the Meteorological service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba:
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#
Click on either link under St. Maarten (I went with Cappi).
As Earl gets closer to Puerto Rico, you can switch to watching it on the US NWS radar based there: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua
Click on the Long Range Images 'Loop' for the long-range movie, and as it gets closer, the Short Range Images, 'Loop' (next to either Composite or Base) for the short-range movie.
More later, including Danielle and the Atlantic Blobette,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I got this from Tom J. (St. Thomas) yesterday evening (his evening): "we are about buttoned down with a few last minute things to complete in the daylight of morning........if the projected path turns to reality we should be OK with the eye over 90 miles to the north..........I'm ready for some FISH AND CHIPS!!"
I know some of you have friends and families on assorted islands in that corner of the Caribbean. I'll post anything else I hear later today.
You can follow the rainbands and see his eye from the radars on the islands. Here's one from the Meteorological service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba:
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#
Click on either link under St. Maarten (I went with Cappi).
As Earl gets closer to Puerto Rico, you can switch to watching it on the US NWS radar based there: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua
Click on the Long Range Images 'Loop' for the long-range movie, and as it gets closer, the Short Range Images, 'Loop' (next to either Composite or Base) for the short-range movie.
More later, including Danielle and the Atlantic Blobette,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Hurricane Earl, and the Atlantic Blobette: August 29, Update B
Hurricane Earl:
Earl is now a mid-sized cat 1 hurricane with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and a central pressure of 978mb. He's heading WNW at 14mph and his center is at 17.6N, 59.7W. This means that he will pass just (barely) north of the leeward islands. Planes have been flying into the system and will continue so, so the wind speed and pressure will be based on direct in-situ observations. Interestingly, the forecast for the next 20 hours is for Earl to become a major hurricane when he is just north of the Virgin Islands. I don't know if he'll be a cat 3 or higher but I think there's a very good chance he'll be a cat 2. Convection is pretty good, although still mostly to the south at the moment, and it looks like the wind shear will decrease soon. Surface water temperatures are over 30 deg C, with waters as warm as 26.5 degrees down to 100m. Two factors that might keep him in check for a couple of minutes are the very very limited impact that the islands themselves will have on him, and the surrounding dry air (also limited). Hmm... having looked at the pressure fields, I can see the reasoning for the forecast to make him into a cat 3 just north of the islands. It looks like he will slow down in his forward motion, keeping him over that area for some time, which would then allow him to pick up in intensity without making much progress in space. He has already slowed down. I also wouldn't put it past him to move WNW for a short while, and then move W again but maintaining his speed. One thing to watch for is how much he slows in the next 24 hours.
Hurricane Danielle:
She's still hanging on as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 80mph and central pressure of 977mb. I don't think she's really that strong - there's no convection to the south side of the center, and whatever there is to the north is not very deep - maybe some rain, but no thunder. She's moving NNE at a really rapid 29mph, and the center is at 38N, 54.5W. She's not forecast to reach land on this side of the pond (i.e. she's not heading in my direction), but I'll continue with brief updates for another couple of days, in case some fish are reading this and have relatives in her path.
Atlantic Blobette:
The NHC still have this listed as an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. As I said earlier, I think this is already a Tropical Depression. There is definitely a closed circulation with winds less than 39 mph. I would say that it's quite weak on the convection side of things, with just some rain but no thunder, but I'm not calling it a Tropical Storm, just a TD. It's that surrounding dry air that's getting into it. But circulation is strong, so there's a chance it will pick up as it continues to move west (at 20mph).
More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Earl is now a mid-sized cat 1 hurricane with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and a central pressure of 978mb. He's heading WNW at 14mph and his center is at 17.6N, 59.7W. This means that he will pass just (barely) north of the leeward islands. Planes have been flying into the system and will continue so, so the wind speed and pressure will be based on direct in-situ observations. Interestingly, the forecast for the next 20 hours is for Earl to become a major hurricane when he is just north of the Virgin Islands. I don't know if he'll be a cat 3 or higher but I think there's a very good chance he'll be a cat 2. Convection is pretty good, although still mostly to the south at the moment, and it looks like the wind shear will decrease soon. Surface water temperatures are over 30 deg C, with waters as warm as 26.5 degrees down to 100m. Two factors that might keep him in check for a couple of minutes are the very very limited impact that the islands themselves will have on him, and the surrounding dry air (also limited). Hmm... having looked at the pressure fields, I can see the reasoning for the forecast to make him into a cat 3 just north of the islands. It looks like he will slow down in his forward motion, keeping him over that area for some time, which would then allow him to pick up in intensity without making much progress in space. He has already slowed down. I also wouldn't put it past him to move WNW for a short while, and then move W again but maintaining his speed. One thing to watch for is how much he slows in the next 24 hours.
Hurricane Danielle:
She's still hanging on as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 80mph and central pressure of 977mb. I don't think she's really that strong - there's no convection to the south side of the center, and whatever there is to the north is not very deep - maybe some rain, but no thunder. She's moving NNE at a really rapid 29mph, and the center is at 38N, 54.5W. She's not forecast to reach land on this side of the pond (i.e. she's not heading in my direction), but I'll continue with brief updates for another couple of days, in case some fish are reading this and have relatives in her path.
Atlantic Blobette:
The NHC still have this listed as an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. As I said earlier, I think this is already a Tropical Depression. There is definitely a closed circulation with winds less than 39 mph. I would say that it's quite weak on the convection side of things, with just some rain but no thunder, but I'm not calling it a Tropical Storm, just a TD. It's that surrounding dry air that's getting into it. But circulation is strong, so there's a chance it will pick up as it continues to move west (at 20mph).
More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl and the Atlantic Blobette: August 29, Update A
Tropical Storm Earl:
I thought I'd start with Earl, as it's he's the main feature for the next few days. In the last few hours he's started to look more like a hurricane, and the center seems to be around 17.1N, 57.6W. His maximum winds are 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph) so he's a strong Tropical Storm/borderline hurricane. Central pressure is estimated to be 985mb. He continues to move W at a fairly fast 18mph.
Although he's lacking in organization he certainly does have a lot of convection so there will be some heavy thunderstorms around. The convection is mostly to the south and west of his center of circulation at the moment, because of the wind shear effects from Danielle that I mentioned yesterday. His vorticity has increased though and now reaches the upper troposphere. It's at the sort of levels I see with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane, so I expect he will be officially upgraded in the next advisory later this morning.
It looks to me as if he's going to remain on a westward track and hit the Northern Leeward islands (they are already experiencing his outer bands). There's a small chance he'll make that Northwestward turn and just catch everyone on his south side, but if that's going to happen with that wind shear it means that they will experience the worst of the convective activity. But I think there's a better chance he will continue westward for a little while longer (remain on the southern edge of the cone of possible tracks) and just enter the northern Caribbean and then make that northwestward turn, possibly in the vicinity of the US Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. If he does that, the eye will be to the south and they will get the northern side of the storm - interestingly, if wind shear continues, it means that the worst of the weather will remain to their south (in a fully formed hurricane, this is not usually the case). Of course, Danielle is moving NE and further away, therefore the strong wind shear from the north east will diminish with time, giving him an opportunity to develop on all sides. Regardless of exact path, the islands will get some stormy weather. I heard from Tom J. on St. Thomas that their hurricane preparations will be completed today and the palm trees have already begun to sway. The islands in that corner of the Caribbean are under a hurricane watch or warning.
Hurricane Danielle:
Circulation (vorticity) is still strong throughout the troposphere for Danielle, so she'll remain a hurricane for a little longer. She's slightly stronger than Earl at the moment, however she's about to head into an area of strong wind shear which will knock her socks off. She's currently at 34.6N, 55.4W, with winds of 90mph, making her a cat 1 hurricane (range: 74-95mph) and central pressure of 972mb. She's moving NE at 21mph. Not much more to say about this one for now.
Atlantic Blobette:
Circulation (vorticity) for this blobette has not changed since yesterday, and wind shear remains fairly weak. However it is still surrounded by dry air, which may be the inhibiting factor (for now). Convection has weakend a little in the past few hours, but in my opinion this is a Tropical Depression (not a Tropical Storm yet) and has been since yesterday. The center is somewhere in the region of 13.5N, 36.2W. Again, I don't know what the delay is in upgrading it.
It's your lucky day (!?!?) ... you'll get two updates today!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I thought I'd start with Earl, as it's he's the main feature for the next few days. In the last few hours he's started to look more like a hurricane, and the center seems to be around 17.1N, 57.6W. His maximum winds are 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph) so he's a strong Tropical Storm/borderline hurricane. Central pressure is estimated to be 985mb. He continues to move W at a fairly fast 18mph.
Although he's lacking in organization he certainly does have a lot of convection so there will be some heavy thunderstorms around. The convection is mostly to the south and west of his center of circulation at the moment, because of the wind shear effects from Danielle that I mentioned yesterday. His vorticity has increased though and now reaches the upper troposphere. It's at the sort of levels I see with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane, so I expect he will be officially upgraded in the next advisory later this morning.
It looks to me as if he's going to remain on a westward track and hit the Northern Leeward islands (they are already experiencing his outer bands). There's a small chance he'll make that Northwestward turn and just catch everyone on his south side, but if that's going to happen with that wind shear it means that they will experience the worst of the convective activity. But I think there's a better chance he will continue westward for a little while longer (remain on the southern edge of the cone of possible tracks) and just enter the northern Caribbean and then make that northwestward turn, possibly in the vicinity of the US Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. If he does that, the eye will be to the south and they will get the northern side of the storm - interestingly, if wind shear continues, it means that the worst of the weather will remain to their south (in a fully formed hurricane, this is not usually the case). Of course, Danielle is moving NE and further away, therefore the strong wind shear from the north east will diminish with time, giving him an opportunity to develop on all sides. Regardless of exact path, the islands will get some stormy weather. I heard from Tom J. on St. Thomas that their hurricane preparations will be completed today and the palm trees have already begun to sway. The islands in that corner of the Caribbean are under a hurricane watch or warning.
Hurricane Danielle:
Circulation (vorticity) is still strong throughout the troposphere for Danielle, so she'll remain a hurricane for a little longer. She's slightly stronger than Earl at the moment, however she's about to head into an area of strong wind shear which will knock her socks off. She's currently at 34.6N, 55.4W, with winds of 90mph, making her a cat 1 hurricane (range: 74-95mph) and central pressure of 972mb. She's moving NE at 21mph. Not much more to say about this one for now.
Atlantic Blobette:
Circulation (vorticity) for this blobette has not changed since yesterday, and wind shear remains fairly weak. However it is still surrounded by dry air, which may be the inhibiting factor (for now). Convection has weakend a little in the past few hours, but in my opinion this is a Tropical Depression (not a Tropical Storm yet) and has been since yesterday. The center is somewhere in the region of 13.5N, 36.2W. Again, I don't know what the delay is in upgrading it.
It's your lucky day (!?!?) ... you'll get two updates today!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl and the Atlantic Blobette: August 28, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
She was making that northward turn as I was writing yesterday - it wasn't the wine or my eyes! Yay! And she didn't hit anyone. What a great storm! She's now on a NNE trajectory and heading away from Bermuda. In the last few hours her eye has started to vanish, a sure sign she's weakening. I also see this in her convection, which is not as strong as it was earlier. Her center is at 30.5N, 59.6W and she's moving NNE at a nice 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105mph now, so she's a cat 2 (range: 96-110mph), and her central pressure is about 970mb.
I've had a few reports from Bermuda throughout the day (from Steve B.). They went something like this:
<this morning sometime> "not a breath"
<5.5 hours later> "still all quiet as a mouse"
<10 minutes after that> "ooh, we have rain"
<2 minutes after that> "false alarm upstairs shower is leaking."
They hardly even got kite-flying weather from the sounds of it, let alone anything else. (Umm... hope the 'rain' damage isn't too bad!)
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl did intensify a bit since yesterday but weakened a tad again earlier today. He remains a Tropical Storm for now. His winds are currently 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of about 999mb. He's moving generally westward at a rather rapid 23mph (actually I'd say he's moving WNW) and his current location is around 16.8N, 54.3W. I'm estimating this location because I think his center is actually fractionally north of the official center location. He is currently forecast to become a cat 1 storm tomorrow and clip the northern Leeward Islands with some of his outer bands.
Convection is picking up now because he is over water temperatures above 29 deg C but also because he's moved over an area where the warm 26.5 deg C water is deeper and extends over the upper 100m of the water column. However, to counteract that he is still surrounded by dry air, and wind shear is picking up. It looks like some of that wind shear is because of his big sister, Danielle! Isn't that interesting? Here we have a battle between the influence of the ocean and that of the atmosphere. I suspect he'll remain as a Tropical Storm for as long as the wind shear is in place. Unfortunately I don't know how long that will stay.
Atlantic Blobette:
It looks to me like this one has decreased in low-level circulation today, but it's not entirely vanished. Convection hasn't changed too much, and it still looks like a blobette. It's moving WNW at 15mph, and the NHC say there's a jolly good chance it'll be a Tropical Depression tonight or tomorrow. I'll wait on saying more about this until it's a TD or TS.
And lest I forget (again), the punchline to the joke from a couple of days ago (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/08/hurricane-danielle-tropical-storm-earl.html) ... it's no longer a string because it's 'a frayed knot' (afraid not). Hee hee hee. Thanks Bill! :-)
That's it for today. Tomorrow, Earl will take center stage although Danielle and the blobette will still be part of the supporting cast.
Toodles,
J.
p.s. my cat is snoring! I don't think I've heard him do that before. Hmm. Wonder if they make those nose anti-snore devices for cats... wonder how badly scratched I'd be if I tried to put one on him.... ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
She was making that northward turn as I was writing yesterday - it wasn't the wine or my eyes! Yay! And she didn't hit anyone. What a great storm! She's now on a NNE trajectory and heading away from Bermuda. In the last few hours her eye has started to vanish, a sure sign she's weakening. I also see this in her convection, which is not as strong as it was earlier. Her center is at 30.5N, 59.6W and she's moving NNE at a nice 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105mph now, so she's a cat 2 (range: 96-110mph), and her central pressure is about 970mb.
I've had a few reports from Bermuda throughout the day (from Steve B.). They went something like this:
<this morning sometime> "not a breath"
<5.5 hours later> "still all quiet as a mouse"
<10 minutes after that> "ooh, we have rain"
<2 minutes after that> "false alarm upstairs shower is leaking."
They hardly even got kite-flying weather from the sounds of it, let alone anything else. (Umm... hope the 'rain' damage isn't too bad!)
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl did intensify a bit since yesterday but weakened a tad again earlier today. He remains a Tropical Storm for now. His winds are currently 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of about 999mb. He's moving generally westward at a rather rapid 23mph (actually I'd say he's moving WNW) and his current location is around 16.8N, 54.3W. I'm estimating this location because I think his center is actually fractionally north of the official center location. He is currently forecast to become a cat 1 storm tomorrow and clip the northern Leeward Islands with some of his outer bands.
Convection is picking up now because he is over water temperatures above 29 deg C but also because he's moved over an area where the warm 26.5 deg C water is deeper and extends over the upper 100m of the water column. However, to counteract that he is still surrounded by dry air, and wind shear is picking up. It looks like some of that wind shear is because of his big sister, Danielle! Isn't that interesting? Here we have a battle between the influence of the ocean and that of the atmosphere. I suspect he'll remain as a Tropical Storm for as long as the wind shear is in place. Unfortunately I don't know how long that will stay.
Atlantic Blobette:
It looks to me like this one has decreased in low-level circulation today, but it's not entirely vanished. Convection hasn't changed too much, and it still looks like a blobette. It's moving WNW at 15mph, and the NHC say there's a jolly good chance it'll be a Tropical Depression tonight or tomorrow. I'll wait on saying more about this until it's a TD or TS.
And lest I forget (again), the punchline to the joke from a couple of days ago (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/08/hurricane-danielle-tropical-storm-earl.html) ... it's no longer a string because it's 'a frayed knot' (afraid not). Hee hee hee. Thanks Bill! :-)
That's it for today. Tomorrow, Earl will take center stage although Danielle and the blobette will still be part of the supporting cast.
Toodles,
J.
p.s. my cat is snoring! I don't think I've heard him do that before. Hmm. Wonder if they make those nose anti-snore devices for cats... wonder how badly scratched I'd be if I tried to put one on him.... ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl & the Atlantic Blobette: August 27, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
She's a lovely looking storm, and of course a big storm! She's been a category 4 (range: 131-155mph) for most of today, with max winds of 135 mph and a central pressure of 942mb. A plane was sent into the system this afternoon so these values are based on actual real-life in-the-storm observations, not just an estimate (if you missed it, see yesterday's update for that chit-chat). She's moving NW at 9mph and is currently located at 27.3N, 60.3W. The eye has a diameter of around 17-23 miles.
Although she's heading in a NW direction and looks like she's aiming for Bermuda, in the next few hours (maybe 12) we should see her start to move more NNW and then northward as she moves clockwise around a high pressure. Looking at the latest satellite images I'm almost certain she's started to make that turn and is moving NNW, but I have had a glass of wine so it could just be my eyes seeing things! As expected, Bermuda will still get a clip and is under a Tropical Storm watch. The outer bands (clouds only) have just started to reach them. Last I heard, this morning all was fine on the island. Not much wind. Preparations underway. All the normal stuff if a cat 4 hurricane is heading in your direction. And you're on an island.
Convection has decreased a bit, but I think that's just a cycle and it will pick back up. Vorticity is very strong throughout the troposphere. Not much wind shear at the moment. Water temperatures over 29 deg C. For now, I don't see anything that will bring the intensity down. If anything, it may increase further. So basically we're waiting for her to take that northward turn! Any time now would be super.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Our next problem child. He's been a bit lazy and hasn't done much today but he might get some work done tomorrow and start to develop further, which is also what is forecasted. His vorticity is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere and I finally see it beginning to improve in the upper half of the troposphere. His current estimated center is around 15.8N, 46W and he is moving rapidly westward at 20mph. Minimum pressure is estimated to be 1003mb, with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's still a bit of a messy blob (a slobby blob), which is why I say the center is an estimate - it's difficult to see exactly where it is.
Wind shear is dying down. But there is still dry air on almost all sides that might reign him in a bit. Water temperatures are now 28 deg C, and he's heading into warmer regions with temperatures above 29 deg C. He might clip the northern Leeward Islands when he gets to that side of the Atlantic. Some of them (St. Martin, St. Barthelemy) are already under a Tropical Storm watch. The forecast has him as a cat 1 hurricane in that general area (north of the islands) by Sunday evening.
Atlantic Blobette:
This has improved in circulation today, and the vorticity in the lower troposphere is rather decent. I can't quite assess the convection properly, because it's still quite far east - at around 10N, 25-30W. Not much more to say on this for today. The next name is Fiona.
A bientot!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
She's a lovely looking storm, and of course a big storm! She's been a category 4 (range: 131-155mph) for most of today, with max winds of 135 mph and a central pressure of 942mb. A plane was sent into the system this afternoon so these values are based on actual real-life in-the-storm observations, not just an estimate (if you missed it, see yesterday's update for that chit-chat). She's moving NW at 9mph and is currently located at 27.3N, 60.3W. The eye has a diameter of around 17-23 miles.
Although she's heading in a NW direction and looks like she's aiming for Bermuda, in the next few hours (maybe 12) we should see her start to move more NNW and then northward as she moves clockwise around a high pressure. Looking at the latest satellite images I'm almost certain she's started to make that turn and is moving NNW, but I have had a glass of wine so it could just be my eyes seeing things! As expected, Bermuda will still get a clip and is under a Tropical Storm watch. The outer bands (clouds only) have just started to reach them. Last I heard, this morning all was fine on the island. Not much wind. Preparations underway. All the normal stuff if a cat 4 hurricane is heading in your direction. And you're on an island.
Convection has decreased a bit, but I think that's just a cycle and it will pick back up. Vorticity is very strong throughout the troposphere. Not much wind shear at the moment. Water temperatures over 29 deg C. For now, I don't see anything that will bring the intensity down. If anything, it may increase further. So basically we're waiting for her to take that northward turn! Any time now would be super.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Our next problem child. He's been a bit lazy and hasn't done much today but he might get some work done tomorrow and start to develop further, which is also what is forecasted. His vorticity is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere and I finally see it beginning to improve in the upper half of the troposphere. His current estimated center is around 15.8N, 46W and he is moving rapidly westward at 20mph. Minimum pressure is estimated to be 1003mb, with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's still a bit of a messy blob (a slobby blob), which is why I say the center is an estimate - it's difficult to see exactly where it is.
Wind shear is dying down. But there is still dry air on almost all sides that might reign him in a bit. Water temperatures are now 28 deg C, and he's heading into warmer regions with temperatures above 29 deg C. He might clip the northern Leeward Islands when he gets to that side of the Atlantic. Some of them (St. Martin, St. Barthelemy) are already under a Tropical Storm watch. The forecast has him as a cat 1 hurricane in that general area (north of the islands) by Sunday evening.
Atlantic Blobette:
This has improved in circulation today, and the vorticity in the lower troposphere is rather decent. I can't quite assess the convection properly, because it's still quite far east - at around 10N, 25-30W. Not much more to say on this for today. The next name is Fiona.
A bientot!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl, and the Atlantic Blobette: August 26, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
Danielle is certainly a lovely looking cat 2 (range: 96-110mph) storm at the moment, with a beautiful clear eye and lots of lovely swirls and curls. She's currently centered at 25.2N, 57W and is moving NW at 15mph. The good news is that since yesterday, she has indeed been moving slightly to the east of the center of the cone so it looks like her center should pass nicely east of Bermuda. But the storm diameter (at the moment) is somewhere around 300 miles, so they may get outerband stuff - hopefully only clouds and a nice breeze... kite-flying weather perhaps? The forecast track has her continuing NW until tomorrow evening, then curving northward and then northeast and out into the Atlantic and away from Bermuda by Saturday.
The forecast also makes her a cat 3 (range: 111-130mph) soon. Currently her official wind speeds are 110mph, so she's essentially a cat 2/cat 3 storm anyway. Cat 3 or higher is classified a major hurricane. As I said a couple of days ago, the vorticity I see in the upper troposphere is something I usually see with a cat 3 storm, and that's what I see at the moment, so I would agree with a potential upgrade. The two things that may help to temper a further increase though are some moderate wind shear (with a small amount of dry air ahead of her) and that the warm 29 deg C water underneath is really only at the surface - beneath the upper few meters of the water column the temperatures are less than 26 deg C.
Her central pressure is estimated to be 968mb. <Science Alert!> Karen M. asked how they know what the central pressure is in a storm when they don't fly planes through or have other direct observations. The answer is that they don't know the exact central pressure. It's usually an estimate calculated from satellite observations, called the Dvorak Technique (named after Vernon Dvorak). Both visible and infrared satellite imagery is used. For the visible, the assumption is made that storms of a certain intensity (and hence pressure and wind speed) have similar features (e.g. one eye, no nose, no ears, a circular body... Picasso painting anyone? ;-)). Infrared satellite images are used to get the temperature of the clouds in the atmosphere and calculate the intensity from that. By looking at the temperature difference between the clouds in the center of the storm (warm) and those surrounding the center (cool) they can come up with an estimate of the intensity which corresponds to an ideal wind speed (max) and central pressure. So for storms that are far away, both wind speed and central pressure are usually estimates and not exact observations (which means that Danielle may already be a cat 3!). The bigger the temperature difference, the more intense a storm and therefore the lower the central pressure. Planes have flown through storms and made direct observations to improve the values wind speed and central pressure corresponding to the intensity calculated from the Dvorak Technique, so these values of pressure and wind speed are usually in the right ballpark, even with storms that are far away. Of course there are all sorts of caveats to this and it's not an exact science. Some variations include needing to take into account the size of the storm, the ocean basin it is in etc. But I won't go into all that now. That's essentially the central pressure business in a nutshell, without going into too much technical detail - I can if you want though, just let me know :-). There is a lot of information out on the internet on the Dvorak Technique if you want to find out the more technical information for yourself. <End of Science Alert!>
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's currently at 15.2N, 38.8W moving W at 18mph. His wind speed is estimated to be 45mph, making him a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Water temperatures are a nice 27-28 deg C, so certainly warm enough to sustain him. But poor fellow, he's been suffering from a bout of wind shear and dry air, and at the moment he's looking a bit ragged with not much in the way of convection. However, the vorticity is very good in the lower half of the troposphere, so once he gets over these problems he should pick up intensity. Maybe tomorrow. His central pressure is actually 1003mb - this time I think they based it on an observation from a buoy he passed over (or close to). Seems reasonable to me. He'll continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning NW and following Danielle. I have seen some models forecast Earl becoming a major hurricane as well. I'm not convinced of this yet, and won't be until that vorticity improves in the upper half of the troposphere.
Atlantic Blobette:
So this blobette is actually mostly beyond my crystal ball (i.e. not on my maps and charts and stuff, where 'stuff' is technical jargon for 'more maps and charts'), but it's on the NHC site with a 20% probability of developing into a storm in the next 2 days. The reason I mention it is because of the experimental long-term forecast models. I think I mentioned earlier this year that I'd be watching to see how they performed. So far, they are looking promising - at least one predicted Danielle 10 days before she became a storm. It also predicted Earl, and it also thinks this blobette will develop in a day or two. I thought I'd mention it now so we can all watch and see. The blobette is currently way out yonder, near the Cape Verde Islands. There is a little bit of lower-troposphere vorticity, but earlier today there was a lot of convection.
And finally:
A joke for Steve B. on Bermuda (and others of course) from Bill H. (thanks):
(clue: last two words are a verbal pun - I'll write it out tomorrow) :-)
Until tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Danielle is certainly a lovely looking cat 2 (range: 96-110mph) storm at the moment, with a beautiful clear eye and lots of lovely swirls and curls. She's currently centered at 25.2N, 57W and is moving NW at 15mph. The good news is that since yesterday, she has indeed been moving slightly to the east of the center of the cone so it looks like her center should pass nicely east of Bermuda. But the storm diameter (at the moment) is somewhere around 300 miles, so they may get outerband stuff - hopefully only clouds and a nice breeze... kite-flying weather perhaps? The forecast track has her continuing NW until tomorrow evening, then curving northward and then northeast and out into the Atlantic and away from Bermuda by Saturday.
The forecast also makes her a cat 3 (range: 111-130mph) soon. Currently her official wind speeds are 110mph, so she's essentially a cat 2/cat 3 storm anyway. Cat 3 or higher is classified a major hurricane. As I said a couple of days ago, the vorticity I see in the upper troposphere is something I usually see with a cat 3 storm, and that's what I see at the moment, so I would agree with a potential upgrade. The two things that may help to temper a further increase though are some moderate wind shear (with a small amount of dry air ahead of her) and that the warm 29 deg C water underneath is really only at the surface - beneath the upper few meters of the water column the temperatures are less than 26 deg C.
Her central pressure is estimated to be 968mb. <Science Alert!> Karen M. asked how they know what the central pressure is in a storm when they don't fly planes through or have other direct observations. The answer is that they don't know the exact central pressure. It's usually an estimate calculated from satellite observations, called the Dvorak Technique (named after Vernon Dvorak). Both visible and infrared satellite imagery is used. For the visible, the assumption is made that storms of a certain intensity (and hence pressure and wind speed) have similar features (e.g. one eye, no nose, no ears, a circular body... Picasso painting anyone? ;-)). Infrared satellite images are used to get the temperature of the clouds in the atmosphere and calculate the intensity from that. By looking at the temperature difference between the clouds in the center of the storm (warm) and those surrounding the center (cool) they can come up with an estimate of the intensity which corresponds to an ideal wind speed (max) and central pressure. So for storms that are far away, both wind speed and central pressure are usually estimates and not exact observations (which means that Danielle may already be a cat 3!). The bigger the temperature difference, the more intense a storm and therefore the lower the central pressure. Planes have flown through storms and made direct observations to improve the values wind speed and central pressure corresponding to the intensity calculated from the Dvorak Technique, so these values of pressure and wind speed are usually in the right ballpark, even with storms that are far away. Of course there are all sorts of caveats to this and it's not an exact science. Some variations include needing to take into account the size of the storm, the ocean basin it is in etc. But I won't go into all that now. That's essentially the central pressure business in a nutshell, without going into too much technical detail - I can if you want though, just let me know :-). There is a lot of information out on the internet on the Dvorak Technique if you want to find out the more technical information for yourself. <End of Science Alert!>
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's currently at 15.2N, 38.8W moving W at 18mph. His wind speed is estimated to be 45mph, making him a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Water temperatures are a nice 27-28 deg C, so certainly warm enough to sustain him. But poor fellow, he's been suffering from a bout of wind shear and dry air, and at the moment he's looking a bit ragged with not much in the way of convection. However, the vorticity is very good in the lower half of the troposphere, so once he gets over these problems he should pick up intensity. Maybe tomorrow. His central pressure is actually 1003mb - this time I think they based it on an observation from a buoy he passed over (or close to). Seems reasonable to me. He'll continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning NW and following Danielle. I have seen some models forecast Earl becoming a major hurricane as well. I'm not convinced of this yet, and won't be until that vorticity improves in the upper half of the troposphere.
Atlantic Blobette:
So this blobette is actually mostly beyond my crystal ball (i.e. not on my maps and charts and stuff, where 'stuff' is technical jargon for 'more maps and charts'), but it's on the NHC site with a 20% probability of developing into a storm in the next 2 days. The reason I mention it is because of the experimental long-term forecast models. I think I mentioned earlier this year that I'd be watching to see how they performed. So far, they are looking promising - at least one predicted Danielle 10 days before she became a storm. It also predicted Earl, and it also thinks this blobette will develop in a day or two. I thought I'd mention it now so we can all watch and see. The blobette is currently way out yonder, near the Cape Verde Islands. There is a little bit of lower-troposphere vorticity, but earlier today there was a lot of convection.
And finally:
A joke for Steve B. on Bermuda (and others of course) from Bill H. (thanks):
A string walks into a bar and asks for a drink. The bartender says: "We don't serve strings." The string goes to a table and musses up his hair. He walks back to the bar and asks for a drink. The bartender says: "Hey, didn't I tell you that we don't serve strings? Are you a string? "
The string says: "No, I'm afraid not."
(clue: last two words are a verbal pun - I'll write it out tomorrow) :-)
Until tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl: August 25, Update A
Oh dear, it's a bit late over here so I'm not going to spend much time on this entry ... which is lucky for the NHC, because I've not been overly impressed with their call about Tropical Storm Earl!
Hurricane Danielle:
After intensifying back to a hurricane yesterday, she's had pretty steady winds of about 85mph for most of the day today making her a solid cat 1 storm (wind range: 74-95mph). She's currently at about 21.4N, 53.1W, with a central pressure estimated to be at 982mb, and she's moving NW at a pretty fast 17mph. She made a more northward turn today (compared to the WNW track she's been on for the past few days). I think she might track a little to the east (or right) of the center of cone for the next few hours (day). The forecast calls for her to be close to or even possibly over Bermuda on Sunday. I'm not sure it'll be a direct hit but more of a clip - the outer bands might pass over them. That's still a few days away, so we'll see. Clearly the stress of preparing is getting to them (not), as I got this from Steve B. on Bermuda today:
Two atoms are drinking at the bar. Suddenly one says to the other, "I've just lost one of my electrons!"
"Are you sure?" asks the other.
"Yes," replied the first atom. "I'm positive."
(hee hee - anyone got a joke to send back?)
Back to our lovely Danielle. She's been experiencing some wind shear, which has helped to maintain her as a cat 1 storm. Also, the vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere decreased today which also contributed to her maintaining cat 1 status. However, I just had a quick look and the upper level vorticity has started to look good again so there's a chance she might strengthen some more tomorrow, despite the wind shear and dry air in front of her. Water temperatures remain warm at around 28-29 deg C. In this case, intensity fluctuations are completely dependent on what's going on in the atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Well. What can I say? Some of you might remember a few years ago when the NHC seemed to consistently wait until a system was almost a Tropical Storm, then upgrade it to a Tropical Depression with the 'forecast' that it would shortly become a Tropical Storm. Remember that? I do, cos I ranted about it back then. Well, here we are again. There is no way this went from being a 'newly formed' Tropical Depression to a fully fledged Tropical Storm within two advisories - it was so clearly a Tropical Depression yesterday, and it sure looked like a Tropical Storm before they upgraded it to a Tropical Depression. Grrr. (Isn't it a good thing that it's late over here and I don't have time for a proper "chat" about this? ;-)). I have no idea why it took them so long to call this one!!
Anyway, our Tropical Storm Earl is here now (well, to be pedantic, he's out there now). His center is in the region of 14.4N, 32.3W and he's moving generally westward at 16mph. Winds are 40mph (officially - I think they might be a little stronger) (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure is 1006mb. At one point today, the convection in this 'pre-Depression' blob was looking almost the same as Danielle at that time. The vorticity (circulation) is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere (technical term for the lowest section of our atmosphere), but unlike Danielle there isn't anything in the higher levels. He's going to stay on that westward track for a couple more days and at the moment I'd say there's a good chance he'll closely follow the track Danielle is on after that.
More news from the 'we-finally-found-the-2010-hurricane-season' Atlantic tomorrow!
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Danielle:
After intensifying back to a hurricane yesterday, she's had pretty steady winds of about 85mph for most of the day today making her a solid cat 1 storm (wind range: 74-95mph). She's currently at about 21.4N, 53.1W, with a central pressure estimated to be at 982mb, and she's moving NW at a pretty fast 17mph. She made a more northward turn today (compared to the WNW track she's been on for the past few days). I think she might track a little to the east (or right) of the center of cone for the next few hours (day). The forecast calls for her to be close to or even possibly over Bermuda on Sunday. I'm not sure it'll be a direct hit but more of a clip - the outer bands might pass over them. That's still a few days away, so we'll see. Clearly the stress of preparing is getting to them (not), as I got this from Steve B. on Bermuda today:
Two atoms are drinking at the bar. Suddenly one says to the other, "I've just lost one of my electrons!"
"Are you sure?" asks the other.
"Yes," replied the first atom. "I'm positive."
(hee hee - anyone got a joke to send back?)
Back to our lovely Danielle. She's been experiencing some wind shear, which has helped to maintain her as a cat 1 storm. Also, the vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere decreased today which also contributed to her maintaining cat 1 status. However, I just had a quick look and the upper level vorticity has started to look good again so there's a chance she might strengthen some more tomorrow, despite the wind shear and dry air in front of her. Water temperatures remain warm at around 28-29 deg C. In this case, intensity fluctuations are completely dependent on what's going on in the atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Well. What can I say? Some of you might remember a few years ago when the NHC seemed to consistently wait until a system was almost a Tropical Storm, then upgrade it to a Tropical Depression with the 'forecast' that it would shortly become a Tropical Storm. Remember that? I do, cos I ranted about it back then. Well, here we are again. There is no way this went from being a 'newly formed' Tropical Depression to a fully fledged Tropical Storm within two advisories - it was so clearly a Tropical Depression yesterday, and it sure looked like a Tropical Storm before they upgraded it to a Tropical Depression. Grrr. (Isn't it a good thing that it's late over here and I don't have time for a proper "chat" about this? ;-)). I have no idea why it took them so long to call this one!!
Anyway, our Tropical Storm Earl is here now (well, to be pedantic, he's out there now). His center is in the region of 14.4N, 32.3W and he's moving generally westward at 16mph. Winds are 40mph (officially - I think they might be a little stronger) (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure is 1006mb. At one point today, the convection in this 'pre-Depression' blob was looking almost the same as Danielle at that time. The vorticity (circulation) is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere (technical term for the lowest section of our atmosphere), but unlike Danielle there isn't anything in the higher levels. He's going to stay on that westward track for a couple more days and at the moment I'd say there's a good chance he'll closely follow the track Danielle is on after that.
More news from the 'we-finally-found-the-2010-hurricane-season' Atlantic tomorrow!
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Tropical Storm Danielle and Atlantic Blob: August 24, Update A
Tropical Storm Danielle:
Hee hee... I knew today was going to be a fun storm-filled day! and I also knew I shouldn't have written that girls are well-behaved because that was just asking for trouble, wasn't it? Well I always was more inclined towards the phrase "well-behaved women rarely make history" (Laurel Thatcher Ulrich). ;-)
Today Danielle threw the hurricane forecasting community a curve-ball and everyone is running around trying to work it out. Don't you love it when that sort of thing happens? She was developing quite nicely and even had moments where we could see a lovely eye earlier today, and then something changed. No-one knows exactly what (yet), but it resulted in her falling apart quite drastically! Isn't it cool that there are still such big mysteries out there waiting to be solved? :-)
Apparently the dry air that I thought yesterday wouldn't have much of an impact was the culprit. Over a handful of hours, it brought her down from a Cat 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph. We've seen dry air destroy storms before, but the unusual thing here was that her center was so well insulated by moist air (or so it seemed) that it didn't seem likely to have this much of a punch. Clearly something went on in the layers within a storm that we can't see with a satellite. Or (and I'm speculating here), maybe it was something to do with her forward motion, which was really really fast for a cat 2 storm. I'll have to do some digging on this. Oh I do like a good real-life mystery. :-)
Before I carry on, her vital statistics from the NHC 5pm advisory: she's at around 16.5N, 48.2W with a central pressure of 993mb. Winds are at about 70 mph (so she's a strong Tropical Storm) and she's moving WNW at 18mph.
Although she's a TS again, there's a very good chance she'll regain strength. Her vorticity is strong throughout the entire troposphere. In fact it's strengthened since yesterday which means that the basic storm structure is good, even if she's struggling with the convection issue a little because of surrounding dry air. This is the sort of structure I'd expect to see with a major cat 3 hurricane. She's over water that's warm enough to sustain her (over 29 deg C) and there is only a little in the way of wind shear. Assuming whatever conditions that caused her to fall apart don't re-appear, I think she'll restrengthen. This is in agreement with the NHC. Having said that, there is still some dry air in front of her, to her north and west. So restrengthening depends a bit on if she can again wrap herself in a blanket of water vapor or whether the dry air will continue to get into the center. I suspect she'll re-strengthen.
As for track, as I said yesterday she had two options - to move towards to west or to slow down. She certainly didn't slow down but has, indeed, been moving on the western side of the center of the cone, so the forecast track has shifted westward and as of today Bermuda is within the cone. I hope you guys are getting ready for a visit! Hopefully you'll just get some light rain and a bit of breezy weather.
Atlantic Blob:
This little blob is still just out of sight for most of my maps. Although I can now see the vorticity properly, I can't see how strong the convection is yet. The circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but nothing in the higher levels. The NHC have had it at a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression for the past couple of advisories! I think it's already a TD, so I don't know what they are waiting for. It doesn't mean it's a named Tropical Storm yet, but it looks like it has closed circulation.
What an interesting day! (if you are a stormaholic like me). Can't wait to see what she'll do tomorrow... oh... er... I'm supposed to be telling you what she'll do tomorrow, aren't I? ;-)
Ciao for now!
J.
p.s. meant to say this a few entries ago, but if you have any questions please let me know. I assume people have been reading this for a while, so I throw in jargon words like 'troposphere' and er 'storm' ;-), having explained them in earlier entries. But if you missed it, please ask.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hee hee... I knew today was going to be a fun storm-filled day! and I also knew I shouldn't have written that girls are well-behaved because that was just asking for trouble, wasn't it? Well I always was more inclined towards the phrase "well-behaved women rarely make history" (Laurel Thatcher Ulrich). ;-)
Today Danielle threw the hurricane forecasting community a curve-ball and everyone is running around trying to work it out. Don't you love it when that sort of thing happens? She was developing quite nicely and even had moments where we could see a lovely eye earlier today, and then something changed. No-one knows exactly what (yet), but it resulted in her falling apart quite drastically! Isn't it cool that there are still such big mysteries out there waiting to be solved? :-)
Apparently the dry air that I thought yesterday wouldn't have much of an impact was the culprit. Over a handful of hours, it brought her down from a Cat 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph. We've seen dry air destroy storms before, but the unusual thing here was that her center was so well insulated by moist air (or so it seemed) that it didn't seem likely to have this much of a punch. Clearly something went on in the layers within a storm that we can't see with a satellite. Or (and I'm speculating here), maybe it was something to do with her forward motion, which was really really fast for a cat 2 storm. I'll have to do some digging on this. Oh I do like a good real-life mystery. :-)
Before I carry on, her vital statistics from the NHC 5pm advisory: she's at around 16.5N, 48.2W with a central pressure of 993mb. Winds are at about 70 mph (so she's a strong Tropical Storm) and she's moving WNW at 18mph.
Although she's a TS again, there's a very good chance she'll regain strength. Her vorticity is strong throughout the entire troposphere. In fact it's strengthened since yesterday which means that the basic storm structure is good, even if she's struggling with the convection issue a little because of surrounding dry air. This is the sort of structure I'd expect to see with a major cat 3 hurricane. She's over water that's warm enough to sustain her (over 29 deg C) and there is only a little in the way of wind shear. Assuming whatever conditions that caused her to fall apart don't re-appear, I think she'll restrengthen. This is in agreement with the NHC. Having said that, there is still some dry air in front of her, to her north and west. So restrengthening depends a bit on if she can again wrap herself in a blanket of water vapor or whether the dry air will continue to get into the center. I suspect she'll re-strengthen.
As for track, as I said yesterday she had two options - to move towards to west or to slow down. She certainly didn't slow down but has, indeed, been moving on the western side of the center of the cone, so the forecast track has shifted westward and as of today Bermuda is within the cone. I hope you guys are getting ready for a visit! Hopefully you'll just get some light rain and a bit of breezy weather.
Atlantic Blob:
This little blob is still just out of sight for most of my maps. Although I can now see the vorticity properly, I can't see how strong the convection is yet. The circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but nothing in the higher levels. The NHC have had it at a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression for the past couple of advisories! I think it's already a TD, so I don't know what they are waiting for. It doesn't mean it's a named Tropical Storm yet, but it looks like it has closed circulation.
What an interesting day! (if you are a stormaholic like me). Can't wait to see what she'll do tomorrow... oh... er... I'm supposed to be telling you what she'll do tomorrow, aren't I? ;-)
Ciao for now!
J.
p.s. meant to say this a few entries ago, but if you have any questions please let me know. I assume people have been reading this for a while, so I throw in jargon words like 'troposphere' and er 'storm' ;-), having explained them in earlier entries. But if you missed it, please ask.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 23, 2010
Hurricane Danielle and another Atlantic Blob: August 23, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
Girls are so well-behaved, aren't they? ;-) Until now (at least) Danielle has been doing as forecast by everyone, which obviously means she must be well-behaved. Oh, and thank you for enquiring, but no, I wasn't feeling ill when I wrote that I agreed with the NHC yesterday... but I might have been confused after experiencing a weekend of warm (!) sunshine (!!) in Manchester, England. ;-)
Danielle developed into a Tropical Storm yesterday (TS wind range: 39-73mph), and has just been upgraded to a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. Category 1 hurricane winds: 74-95mph. Her central pressure is estimated to be 987mb and she's currently centered at around 15.4N, 41.5W. Yesterday she took a slightly northwestward turn, but all day today she's been keeping to the west of the center of the cone, so at the moment she's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph.
Convection remains very strong, as does the vorticity (circulation). The circulation is *really* strong in the lower half of the troposphere. There's still some circulation in the upper half of the troposphere, but it was a bit weaker than yesterday because of a bit of wind shear. However, this looks like it will change and get better organized, so I think this storm will slowly continue to develop. Water temperatures are 28-29 deg C. There is some dry air still to the north but I don't think that will have much impact.
Although the track continues to take her WNW and recurve out in the Atlantic to the eastern side of Bermuda, I think she might stay on the western side of the center of the cone and could clip Bermuda. The other scenario that is possible is that she'll slow down. The reason for both of these is because there's a high pressure system in front of her, which will cause her to move westward or will slow down her forward movement. In the northern hemisphere storms move in a clockwise direction around an area of high pressure or slow down until the pressure fields change - you can think of the slowing down part as a ball (storm) rolling up a hill (high pressure).
Oh, and look, I used some more 'parentheses'! ;-) which is a nice, if somewhat obviously contrived, segueway to a slight correction on my last entry. The plural of 'parenthesis' is parentheses. (Thanks to K.F. for pointing that out). The word is of Greek origin, and I found this saying from 1796: "The art of the parenthesis is one of the greatest secrets of eloquence in Society" (Sebastien-Roch Nicolas De Chamfort). Clearly I have a long way to go before I achieve mastery of eloquence in Society! Still, it gives me something to aim for. ;-)
Altantic Blob:
In another interesting development, a blob came off the coast of Africa today and almost immediately developed a nice circulation. It's just off the eastern edge of most of my maps (and my crystal ball), so I can't say too much more about it other than it looked like it was in better shape than Danielle when she came off the coast, and it has a lot of convection. This is the next African Easterly Wave after Danielle, so we can see the edge of it in some images that show Danielle. Tomorrow it should be more visible and I'll be able to get a better assessment hopefully. The next name is Earl.
Before I sign off, I wanted to follow up on "jejune" from a couple of days ago. I know some of you looked it up, but in case the 'jej' page was missing from your dictionaries, it means dull and not interesting (which is how I was using it). It also means juvenile, immature and childish. So I suppose the new Atlantic Blob could be a jejune system. :-) I got this note from Edward M. (thanks!) about a word that is similar in spelling (I hope you scrabble players out there are making notes!): "jejuni, which is a type of food poisoning you get from untreated water or raw food. Campylobacter jejuni. I'd read about it in a CDC pamphlet 20 years ago ... And it sounds anything but jejune (in the dull sense of the word).". Yup. Best not to get those two confused!
Ok, that's it for today. Tomorrow will be another fun storm-filled day!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Girls are so well-behaved, aren't they? ;-) Until now (at least) Danielle has been doing as forecast by everyone, which obviously means she must be well-behaved. Oh, and thank you for enquiring, but no, I wasn't feeling ill when I wrote that I agreed with the NHC yesterday... but I might have been confused after experiencing a weekend of warm (!) sunshine (!!) in Manchester, England. ;-)
Danielle developed into a Tropical Storm yesterday (TS wind range: 39-73mph), and has just been upgraded to a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. Category 1 hurricane winds: 74-95mph. Her central pressure is estimated to be 987mb and she's currently centered at around 15.4N, 41.5W. Yesterday she took a slightly northwestward turn, but all day today she's been keeping to the west of the center of the cone, so at the moment she's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph.
Convection remains very strong, as does the vorticity (circulation). The circulation is *really* strong in the lower half of the troposphere. There's still some circulation in the upper half of the troposphere, but it was a bit weaker than yesterday because of a bit of wind shear. However, this looks like it will change and get better organized, so I think this storm will slowly continue to develop. Water temperatures are 28-29 deg C. There is some dry air still to the north but I don't think that will have much impact.
Although the track continues to take her WNW and recurve out in the Atlantic to the eastern side of Bermuda, I think she might stay on the western side of the center of the cone and could clip Bermuda. The other scenario that is possible is that she'll slow down. The reason for both of these is because there's a high pressure system in front of her, which will cause her to move westward or will slow down her forward movement. In the northern hemisphere storms move in a clockwise direction around an area of high pressure or slow down until the pressure fields change - you can think of the slowing down part as a ball (storm) rolling up a hill (high pressure).
Oh, and look, I used some more 'parentheses'! ;-) which is a nice, if somewhat obviously contrived, segueway to a slight correction on my last entry. The plural of 'parenthesis' is parentheses. (Thanks to K.F. for pointing that out). The word is of Greek origin, and I found this saying from 1796: "The art of the parenthesis is one of the greatest secrets of eloquence in Society" (Sebastien-Roch Nicolas De Chamfort). Clearly I have a long way to go before I achieve mastery of eloquence in Society! Still, it gives me something to aim for. ;-)
Altantic Blob:
In another interesting development, a blob came off the coast of Africa today and almost immediately developed a nice circulation. It's just off the eastern edge of most of my maps (and my crystal ball), so I can't say too much more about it other than it looked like it was in better shape than Danielle when she came off the coast, and it has a lot of convection. This is the next African Easterly Wave after Danielle, so we can see the edge of it in some images that show Danielle. Tomorrow it should be more visible and I'll be able to get a better assessment hopefully. The next name is Earl.
Before I sign off, I wanted to follow up on "jejune" from a couple of days ago. I know some of you looked it up, but in case the 'jej' page was missing from your dictionaries, it means dull and not interesting (which is how I was using it). It also means juvenile, immature and childish. So I suppose the new Atlantic Blob could be a jejune system. :-) I got this note from Edward M. (thanks!) about a word that is similar in spelling (I hope you scrabble players out there are making notes!): "jejuni, which is a type of food poisoning you get from untreated water or raw food. Campylobacter jejuni. I'd read about it in a CDC pamphlet 20 years ago ... And it sounds anything but jejune (in the dull sense of the word).". Yup. Best not to get those two confused!
Ok, that's it for today. Tomorrow will be another fun storm-filled day!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Tropical Depression 6: August 22, Update A
Here we go. A real storm. Yay! (Maybe.) (For now anyway.) (And if it stays in the Atlantic.) (I'd like to apologise for the writer of this entry for using too many parenthesis. The writer has been sacked.) (We now) (have a) (new writer.) (Who has also just been sacked and we're going back to the original). (A la classic Monty Python. ;-)).
Yesterday our Atlantic Blobette was upgraded to a Tropical Depression, meaning it had a closed circulation and winds of less than 39 mph. The forecast has it upgrading to a Tropical Storm later today (Danielle), and I don't see anything that will stop that progression.
It's currently somewhere around 11.8N, 33.1W, moving WNW at 8mph. Central pressure is 1008mb and wind speed is 35mph. I think it will continue on a general WNW path for now.
Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to sustain a storm, at 28-30 deg C, with waters of 26.5 deg C in the upper 50m of the water column. Wind shear is on the lower end of the spectrum and looks like it will remain low for the next few days. There is some dry air, mixed with Saharan Dust, north of the system, but it's far away enough from the center that I don't think it will inhibit convection continuing to develop slowly. The one thing about this Depression that I haven't seen in the others we've had this year is that the vorticity (circulation) is already quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, but also extends up to the top of the troposphere (albeit weakly). If this continues to hold steady or improve, this has a good chance of being a hurricane.
Now I hope you are sitting for this as it will come as a bit of a shock to my long-time readers ... but I agree with the NHC forecast at the moment for both track and intensity! :-) (don't worry, i'm sure at some point this year I'll recover and become my cantankerous old self ;-)).
Enjoy your Sunday!
More later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Yesterday our Atlantic Blobette was upgraded to a Tropical Depression, meaning it had a closed circulation and winds of less than 39 mph. The forecast has it upgrading to a Tropical Storm later today (Danielle), and I don't see anything that will stop that progression.
It's currently somewhere around 11.8N, 33.1W, moving WNW at 8mph. Central pressure is 1008mb and wind speed is 35mph. I think it will continue on a general WNW path for now.
Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to sustain a storm, at 28-30 deg C, with waters of 26.5 deg C in the upper 50m of the water column. Wind shear is on the lower end of the spectrum and looks like it will remain low for the next few days. There is some dry air, mixed with Saharan Dust, north of the system, but it's far away enough from the center that I don't think it will inhibit convection continuing to develop slowly. The one thing about this Depression that I haven't seen in the others we've had this year is that the vorticity (circulation) is already quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, but also extends up to the top of the troposphere (albeit weakly). If this continues to hold steady or improve, this has a good chance of being a hurricane.
Now I hope you are sitting for this as it will come as a bit of a shock to my long-time readers ... but I agree with the NHC forecast at the moment for both track and intensity! :-) (don't worry, i'm sure at some point this year I'll recover and become my cantankerous old self ;-)).
Enjoy your Sunday!
More later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Friday, August 20, 2010
Atlantic Blobette: August 20, Update A
Just in time for the weekend (typical)... there's a rather large and not well defined blobette way out there, around 10N, 25-30W, in the eastern Atlantic. This one, unlike some of the previous jejune 'storms' we've had, looks like it may develop if it can pull itself together (geographically speaking) instead of being spread out over such a large area. It has some 'eastern promise'! ;-) And finally! I've been waiting to use 'jejune' in a sentence. Oh happy day! :-)
There is some nice vorticity (circulation) in the lowest half of the troposphere (say in the lower 5-7km), and there's quite a bit of convection in the mix already. Wind shear is low and there doesn't appear to be too much dry or dust-filled air in the immediate vicinity, so we'll see how this one progresses. It's very early days at the moment so no point thinking about the track really, other than it's going to be moving generally westward for a few days.
I'll watch it, but won't send another update unless I can weave in another cool word or er... I suppose if something interesting happens to this blobette. So probably tomorrow! ;-)
Ciao for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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There is some nice vorticity (circulation) in the lowest half of the troposphere (say in the lower 5-7km), and there's quite a bit of convection in the mix already. Wind shear is low and there doesn't appear to be too much dry or dust-filled air in the immediate vicinity, so we'll see how this one progresses. It's very early days at the moment so no point thinking about the track really, other than it's going to be moving generally westward for a few days.
I'll watch it, but won't send another update unless I can weave in another cool word or er... I suppose if something interesting happens to this blobette. So probably tomorrow! ;-)
Ciao for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Northern Gulf Blob formerly known as TD5: August 17, Update A
The "center of circulation" of this not-a-Tropical-Depression-blob made "landfall" in the Louisiana/Mississippi area earlier today. As it moved over land, just like any other not-a-Tropical-Depression-blob it lost some of the associated convection, but the circulation remained strong. However, in the last few hours convective activity has increased again and the circulation is still strong in the lowest half of the troposphere. The NHC have removed this as anything of interest, which is fine as this not-a-Tropical-Depression-blob is now inland. I'll still keep an eye on it until the vorticity (circulation) dies down. But this will be my last entry on this unless it makes yet another come-back - maybe off the US east coast or something, just for a change of scenery. ;-)
I think I have a backlog of things to chat about (thanks to assorted conversations), so I'll probably be writing bits between all these storms. Upcoming blurbs will include things like "Oh my, what a busy Hurricane Season we're having!", "A talk about boys...er I mean buoys", and er... I forgot the third topic already, so you might have just lucked out. ;-)
That's all for today though.
Night night and tally ho! ;-)
J.
p.s.... I just remembered the third thing: "Gone Out with the Wind: A story about outflow, convergence and divergence in tropical storms". You guys are in for so much fun! (bwaa haa haa - yes, that is my evil laugh she says, rubbing her hands together in glee).
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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I think I have a backlog of things to chat about (thanks to assorted conversations), so I'll probably be writing bits between all these storms. Upcoming blurbs will include things like "Oh my, what a busy Hurricane Season we're having!", "A talk about boys...er I mean buoys", and er... I forgot the third topic already, so you might have just lucked out. ;-)
That's all for today though.
Night night and tally ho! ;-)
J.
p.s.... I just remembered the third thing: "Gone Out with the Wind: A story about outflow, convergence and divergence in tropical storms". You guys are in for so much fun! (bwaa haa haa - yes, that is my evil laugh she says, rubbing her hands together in glee).
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Northern Gulf Blob formerly known as TD5: August 16, Update A
Huh. I'm pretty sure that by the official definition of 'Tropical Depression', this blob is a Tropical Depression (TD). When I say "official definition", I don't mean *my* official definition which, of course, is always correct (in my world anyway). ;-) I mean the actual official official definition of a Tropical Depression - a closed circulation with winds below 39 mph.
It clearly has a closed circulation, as seen in satellite images and also as found by a plane that was sent to investigate the system this afternoon (from the NHC: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER"). Winds from surface buoy observations in the area are at a maximum of 21 mph. Drawing upon my vast scientific knowledge, I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that 21 is less than 39! ;-) I reckon it's a TD.
The vorticity (circulation) is pretty good in the lowest half of the atmosphere. The convection now extends into Texas, even though the center of circulation is just south of Alabama. It looks like it is moving WNW, towards the Mississippi/Louisiana area.
There are three things that are keeping this blob on the weaker end of the spectrum: it is interacting with land, the warm water is very shallow, and there is some decent wind shear, which means the convection is mostly to the south and west of the center of circulation. So, even though I think this is a TD, I am not sure it will get to Tropical Storm status (winds greater than 39 mph) because of these factors.
If you suffer from sea-sickness, I don't recommend going out on the Gulf any time soon. Waters have been a bit on the 'oh yeah, that's what I had for lunch' side in the Gulf, with reports of 9 ft plus seas (thanks for the note Gene S.). It might be good for you surfers - but I expect your surf-dar already told you that and you are all out there and not reading this anyway! :-) Water levels along the coast aren't too high - about 1ft above normal in the Mississippi area.
That's all I got... until tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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It clearly has a closed circulation, as seen in satellite images and also as found by a plane that was sent to investigate the system this afternoon (from the NHC: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER"). Winds from surface buoy observations in the area are at a maximum of 21 mph. Drawing upon my vast scientific knowledge, I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that 21 is less than 39! ;-) I reckon it's a TD.
The vorticity (circulation) is pretty good in the lowest half of the atmosphere. The convection now extends into Texas, even though the center of circulation is just south of Alabama. It looks like it is moving WNW, towards the Mississippi/Louisiana area.
There are three things that are keeping this blob on the weaker end of the spectrum: it is interacting with land, the warm water is very shallow, and there is some decent wind shear, which means the convection is mostly to the south and west of the center of circulation. So, even though I think this is a TD, I am not sure it will get to Tropical Storm status (winds greater than 39 mph) because of these factors.
If you suffer from sea-sickness, I don't recommend going out on the Gulf any time soon. Waters have been a bit on the 'oh yeah, that's what I had for lunch' side in the Gulf, with reports of 9 ft plus seas (thanks for the note Gene S.). It might be good for you surfers - but I expect your surf-dar already told you that and you are all out there and not reading this anyway! :-) Water levels along the coast aren't too high - about 1ft above normal in the Mississippi area.
That's all I got... until tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sunday, August 15, 2010
The northern Gulf Blob formerly known as Tropical Depression 5: August 15, Update A
You know sometimes there is a glitch in The Matrix? In ancient times it was also known as 'Deja Vu'? Well, we've got one! The phrase "I'm not dead yet" (Monty Python) springs to mind yet again - this time with Tropical Depression 5.
I know, I know, we thought we'd seen the last of this one about four days ago. Well apparently that was just to lull us into a false sense of security. Although it did go over land (southern US states) ... it's back. There's a lot of convection that has flared up as the remnants of this depression moved in a southwestward direction and back towards the Gulf. The convection is currently over Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, with some over Florida and Georgia. Circulation (vorticity) is pretty strong for a storm that's coming *off* the land - it's got a nice structure in the lowest half of the troposphere (up to about 5km above the earth's surface). In the last few hours, the portion of the storm that is over water began to look like a real tropical storm, as opposed to a blob. It has some nice outflow in the southern flanks. (I'll have to explain this outflow business one day, but it be bed time here so that can wait).
Looking at the closest buoys (e.g. from NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, the buoy at Orange Beach, Alabama: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012), the highest wind speeds that I can see at the moment are only around 24 mph, so it's not yet a Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), but I think it could certainly be re-classified as a Tropical Depression. If it is, I'll have a proper look at all the stuff (wind shear etc). For now, this is just a heads up (although if you are in the rainy bits, you might want to stick your head down until you get to a drier spot ;-) ).
I don't think this will get very strong because it is also interacting with land, but if it continues to move offshore then there's a chance for some intensification. However, despite it's current 'weak' state there are some *very* strong thunderstorms in this system - both on and off-shore - which will bring a lot of rain, strong gusts of wind, lightning etc. I hope all of you in in the Gulf (and southern) states have your rain hats, brollies, wellington boots, and canoes ready...
That's it for today from this side of the pond. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I know, I know, we thought we'd seen the last of this one about four days ago. Well apparently that was just to lull us into a false sense of security. Although it did go over land (southern US states) ... it's back. There's a lot of convection that has flared up as the remnants of this depression moved in a southwestward direction and back towards the Gulf. The convection is currently over Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, with some over Florida and Georgia. Circulation (vorticity) is pretty strong for a storm that's coming *off* the land - it's got a nice structure in the lowest half of the troposphere (up to about 5km above the earth's surface). In the last few hours, the portion of the storm that is over water began to look like a real tropical storm, as opposed to a blob. It has some nice outflow in the southern flanks. (I'll have to explain this outflow business one day, but it be bed time here so that can wait).
Looking at the closest buoys (e.g. from NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, the buoy at Orange Beach, Alabama: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012), the highest wind speeds that I can see at the moment are only around 24 mph, so it's not yet a Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), but I think it could certainly be re-classified as a Tropical Depression. If it is, I'll have a proper look at all the stuff (wind shear etc). For now, this is just a heads up (although if you are in the rainy bits, you might want to stick your head down until you get to a drier spot ;-) ).
I don't think this will get very strong because it is also interacting with land, but if it continues to move offshore then there's a chance for some intensification. However, despite it's current 'weak' state there are some *very* strong thunderstorms in this system - both on and off-shore - which will bring a lot of rain, strong gusts of wind, lightning etc. I hope all of you in in the Gulf (and southern) states have your rain hats, brollies, wellington boots, and canoes ready...
That's it for today from this side of the pond. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tropical Depression 5: August 11, Update B
Hee hee... I am computer-less for a day and the tropical depression dissipates. I love it. That's how they should all behave - wouldn't that be great? I'd be on holiday all the time in that case! ;-)
Tropical Depression 5, the Gulf of Mexico Blob, never really got it's act together and remained a big blobby mess. There was (and still is) some convection, as people various states around the Gulf experienced today (and will continue to tonight and tomorrow), but the area of circulation (vorticity) remained too diffuse to be a storm so I'm really pleased that it's been downgraded back to a Low. Water levels are still higher than normal along the coast - like 2ft above normal at Cedar Key and 1ft above normal at Pensacola and Dauphin Island. The NHC issued their last advisory on this at 4pm CDT (5pm EST), with a nominal central location of 28.3N, 87.6W, central pressure of 1009mb, moving NW at 12mph with winds of 30mph.
No more to say on this one folks and all else looks quiet for now. Yay!
Until the next one (umm... i think Sept. 9 seems like a good day for that, don't you?)... be good! ;-)
Toodle pippy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression 5, the Gulf of Mexico Blob, never really got it's act together and remained a big blobby mess. There was (and still is) some convection, as people various states around the Gulf experienced today (and will continue to tonight and tomorrow), but the area of circulation (vorticity) remained too diffuse to be a storm so I'm really pleased that it's been downgraded back to a Low. Water levels are still higher than normal along the coast - like 2ft above normal at Cedar Key and 1ft above normal at Pensacola and Dauphin Island. The NHC issued their last advisory on this at 4pm CDT (5pm EST), with a nominal central location of 28.3N, 87.6W, central pressure of 1009mb, moving NW at 12mph with winds of 30mph.
No more to say on this one folks and all else looks quiet for now. Yay!
Until the next one (umm... i think Sept. 9 seems like a good day for that, don't you?)... be good! ;-)
Toodle pippy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression 5: August 11, Update A
This is, at the moment, a very poor excuse for an official tropical depression! Convection is really minimal (although that might pick up during the day of course), and the circulation is so diffuse that it's more like a front than I usually see in tropical depressions or storms. I don't see this becoming much of a storm.
Officially, as of the 5am advisory, the center is at 26.8N, 85.1W, but it's so poorly formed that the center could be anywhere in that area and as far north as 28N. Central pressure is 1008mb, which is still pretty high. It's moving NW at 10mph, and the wind speed has been kept to 35mph, but I suspect it's less than that. Observations from a USF/College of Marine Science buoy (http://comps.marine.usf.edu/index?view=station&id=C12) located at 27.5N, 83.7W showed 21.7 mph winds about 2-3 hours ago, with an increasing trend in wind speed.
There is little wind shear, which will allow the storm to develop. But counteracting that, it is surrounded by dry air and although sea surface temperatures are a slightly toasty 30+ deg C, the warm water is a very shallow layer. Maybe it'll get up to Tropical Storm status at some point, maybe not.
The water level at Naples leveled out at 1ft above normal, St. Pete is just under a foot above normal but also looks like it leveled out, Cedar Key is still rising, but just under 1 foot, Appalachicola is at just over 1ft, and Pensacola looked like it peaked at 1ft and is holding steady (kinda) at the moment.
The forecast track is still currently towards the Mississippi delta, but to me, it looks like it will make land-fall east of there... maybe even on the Florida Panhandle. It's tricky to tell because it's a messy little blob. The Gulf has definitely had worse fronts pass through!
From J.D. in Pinellas an on-the-ground weather report: "It's been swirly girly in Pinellas County all day. Felt very tropical something growing." Thanks! :-)
This will be a two-update day I reckon. Lucky you! ;-) But first, it's off to the shops for me and then for a lurverly coastal walk (i do like holidays! :-) The sun even came out to play again. Yes, in England. It's been sunny here for months on end... i'm getting quite a tan! ;-)).
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Officially, as of the 5am advisory, the center is at 26.8N, 85.1W, but it's so poorly formed that the center could be anywhere in that area and as far north as 28N. Central pressure is 1008mb, which is still pretty high. It's moving NW at 10mph, and the wind speed has been kept to 35mph, but I suspect it's less than that. Observations from a USF/College of Marine Science buoy (http://comps.marine.usf.edu/index?view=station&id=C12) located at 27.5N, 83.7W showed 21.7 mph winds about 2-3 hours ago, with an increasing trend in wind speed.
There is little wind shear, which will allow the storm to develop. But counteracting that, it is surrounded by dry air and although sea surface temperatures are a slightly toasty 30+ deg C, the warm water is a very shallow layer. Maybe it'll get up to Tropical Storm status at some point, maybe not.
The water level at Naples leveled out at 1ft above normal, St. Pete is just under a foot above normal but also looks like it leveled out, Cedar Key is still rising, but just under 1 foot, Appalachicola is at just over 1ft, and Pensacola looked like it peaked at 1ft and is holding steady (kinda) at the moment.
The forecast track is still currently towards the Mississippi delta, but to me, it looks like it will make land-fall east of there... maybe even on the Florida Panhandle. It's tricky to tell because it's a messy little blob. The Gulf has definitely had worse fronts pass through!
From J.D. in Pinellas an on-the-ground weather report: "It's been swirly girly in Pinellas County all day. Felt very tropical something growing." Thanks! :-)
This will be a two-update day I reckon. Lucky you! ;-) But first, it's off to the shops for me and then for a lurverly coastal walk (i do like holidays! :-) The sun even came out to play again. Yes, in England. It's been sunny here for months on end... i'm getting quite a tan! ;-)).
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Atlantic Blobette and Tropical Depression 5: August 10, Update A
Atlantic Blobette:
Yet again, not much change in this system. It's just there. Hanging out, chatting with the fishes at around 25N, 52W. Some convection (not much), some low level atmospheric circulation (not much). It's just there. Until it does something interesting, this is my last update on this blobette.
Tropical Depression 5:
Yesterday this was the Gulf of Mexico Blob but circulation has improved even though convection has decreased. A plane was sent into the system and identified closed circulation so this has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. The center is at about 26N, 84.1W, with a central pressure of 1007mb. Winds are 35mph. The bulk of the rain and thundery weather is in the southern part of this system and coincides with the area of the deepest warm water (i.e. the Loop Current - see science alert in http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/07/tropical-depression-bonnie-july-23.html for ocean currents info). Even then, the rain is less severe than the stuff that passed across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday (or was it the day before).
Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are high - over 30 deg C. It's moving NW at 6pm, and the forecast track at the moment takes it straight to the mouth of the Mississippi on Thursday... I haven't yet had a chance to see my usual pressure fields etc. Hopefully tomorrow.
One thing to watch out for is rising water levels along the coast of Florida and then eventually parts of the northern Gulf. As winds circulate in a counter-clockwise direction in a tropical storm in the northern hemisphere, they will push water up against the coast. To check water levels, go to http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ (there's a link on the left side of my blog page too), click on 'State Maps' on the left, click on the state you are interested in (e.g. Florida), click on the location there are observations (e.g. Naples) and you'll get a figure that shows the observed water level (red), the predicted water level (blue and based on tides), and the difference (green). So, for example, at the moment water level is 1ft above normal in Naples and is approaching that at Pensacola.
Right... it be waaay past sleepy time where I am!
Until tomorrow, zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Yet again, not much change in this system. It's just there. Hanging out, chatting with the fishes at around 25N, 52W. Some convection (not much), some low level atmospheric circulation (not much). It's just there. Until it does something interesting, this is my last update on this blobette.
Tropical Depression 5:
Yesterday this was the Gulf of Mexico Blob but circulation has improved even though convection has decreased. A plane was sent into the system and identified closed circulation so this has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. The center is at about 26N, 84.1W, with a central pressure of 1007mb. Winds are 35mph. The bulk of the rain and thundery weather is in the southern part of this system and coincides with the area of the deepest warm water (i.e. the Loop Current - see science alert in http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/07/tropical-depression-bonnie-july-23.html for ocean currents info). Even then, the rain is less severe than the stuff that passed across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday (or was it the day before).
Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are high - over 30 deg C. It's moving NW at 6pm, and the forecast track at the moment takes it straight to the mouth of the Mississippi on Thursday... I haven't yet had a chance to see my usual pressure fields etc. Hopefully tomorrow.
One thing to watch out for is rising water levels along the coast of Florida and then eventually parts of the northern Gulf. As winds circulate in a counter-clockwise direction in a tropical storm in the northern hemisphere, they will push water up against the coast. To check water levels, go to http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ (there's a link on the left side of my blog page too), click on 'State Maps' on the left, click on the state you are interested in (e.g. Florida), click on the location there are observations (e.g. Naples) and you'll get a figure that shows the observed water level (red), the predicted water level (blue and based on tides), and the difference (green). So, for example, at the moment water level is 1ft above normal in Naples and is approaching that at Pensacola.
Right... it be waaay past sleepy time where I am!
Until tomorrow, zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 09, 2010
Atlantic Blobette and Gulf of Mexico Blob: August 9, Update A
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much to report since yesterday really. There is still some low level circulation, which you can clearly see for yourselves in the visible satellite images. I wrote about how to access those a couple of days ago - drop me a line if you didn't remember every word I wrote (and why don't you??? ;-) ) or you can't be bothered to look at previous entries (me neither). It's somewhere around 24N, 50W and moving WNW at 10-15 mph, but convection is really low - I think there's maybe 4-5 rain drops in there somewhere. It's surrounded by dry air (dust).
Gulf of Mexico Blob:
This blob was the strong convection over Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday. There's a tad bit of circulation in this system at the moment, centered somewhere over the SW Florida coast (near Naples/Ft. Myers I'm guessing), but there's no convection at that location. The convection extends in a curved line from the northern Gulf coast down towards Cuba and then around and back up to the Bahamas (Florida has her shields set to 80% apparently). It seems unlikely that this will develop into a full blown tropical storm given that it's so close to assorted land masses, but southern Florida is a little umm... different... from other land masses. ;-)
Let's see... ah yes, another very important point I must address. I got a comment doubting Billy Crystal's presence in The Princess Bride. Wielding my super-magical powers (cough...Google...cough), I think he is there as Miracle Max. That was the funny little guy with a wife, and they lived in a tree or something and something then something else... anyway, he's in there, but just wearing a lot of make-up so he's easy to miss. ;-)
That's all for now.
Toodles!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Not too much to report since yesterday really. There is still some low level circulation, which you can clearly see for yourselves in the visible satellite images. I wrote about how to access those a couple of days ago - drop me a line if you didn't remember every word I wrote (and why don't you??? ;-) ) or you can't be bothered to look at previous entries (me neither). It's somewhere around 24N, 50W and moving WNW at 10-15 mph, but convection is really low - I think there's maybe 4-5 rain drops in there somewhere. It's surrounded by dry air (dust).
Gulf of Mexico Blob:
This blob was the strong convection over Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday. There's a tad bit of circulation in this system at the moment, centered somewhere over the SW Florida coast (near Naples/Ft. Myers I'm guessing), but there's no convection at that location. The convection extends in a curved line from the northern Gulf coast down towards Cuba and then around and back up to the Bahamas (Florida has her shields set to 80% apparently). It seems unlikely that this will develop into a full blown tropical storm given that it's so close to assorted land masses, but southern Florida is a little umm... different... from other land masses. ;-)
Let's see... ah yes, another very important point I must address. I got a comment doubting Billy Crystal's presence in The Princess Bride. Wielding my super-magical powers (cough...Google...cough), I think he is there as Miracle Max. That was the funny little guy with a wife, and they lived in a tree or something and something then something else... anyway, he's in there, but just wearing a lot of make-up so he's easy to miss. ;-)
That's all for now.
Toodles!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Tropical Depression Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 8, Update A
Tropical Depression Colin:
The NHC downgraded him to a tropical depression earlier today, and in their 5pm advisory they said that he had dissipated and that was their last advisory on the system. While I agree with the downgrade to tropical depression, I think I need to clarify what they mean by 'dissipated' - which to most people suggests he's vanished, but this is weather-speak jargon. Essentially, it means that he's now just an area of low pressure, so he has still got convection (thunderstorms and rain) but no closed circulation... so for those on Bermuda, in some senses "He's only mostly dead" as Billy Crystal said in The Princess Bride (sent to me by Dede W.) ;-)
It looks to me like he still has some decent circulation in the lowest part of the atmosphere, and as I said, there is still some convection. I've been getting updates from Steve B. on Bermuda who said it was stormy at various points during the day - that would be because of the isolated thunderstorms moving over Bermuda as part of the tropical storm low. Actually, it looks like parts of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba had even more severe thunderstorms today than Bermuda!
For you guys in Bermuda, I'm not sure the rain is over yet. Although the 'center' according to the NHC is at 32.9N, 65.5W, he's not very organized so that's just to give us an idea of location. However the convection is still mostly south of you (moving northwards), and it looks like it is re-building so you might have a "bit more" rain... hope you have your rain-hats and wellie boots ready!
From the NHC: Central pressure is estimated to be 1015mb (not low pressure at all!) and he's moving N at 12 mph with winds of 30mph.
This is probably my last update on TS Colin as well, unless he tries for yet another round!
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much change in status since yesterday in this one... it still has circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is building. It's somewhere around 24N, 46W, moving in a NW direction. There is dry air surrounding this system and some inhibiting wind shear, so the convection is northeast of the center, but it looks like it has closed circulation to me. I think this might be a Tropical Depression already. Maybe tomorrow the NHC will "Make it so!" (Capt. Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek NG). ;-)
Until the morrow,
Ciao!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
The NHC downgraded him to a tropical depression earlier today, and in their 5pm advisory they said that he had dissipated and that was their last advisory on the system. While I agree with the downgrade to tropical depression, I think I need to clarify what they mean by 'dissipated' - which to most people suggests he's vanished, but this is weather-speak jargon. Essentially, it means that he's now just an area of low pressure, so he has still got convection (thunderstorms and rain) but no closed circulation... so for those on Bermuda, in some senses "He's only mostly dead" as Billy Crystal said in The Princess Bride (sent to me by Dede W.) ;-)
It looks to me like he still has some decent circulation in the lowest part of the atmosphere, and as I said, there is still some convection. I've been getting updates from Steve B. on Bermuda who said it was stormy at various points during the day - that would be because of the isolated thunderstorms moving over Bermuda as part of the tropical storm low. Actually, it looks like parts of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba had even more severe thunderstorms today than Bermuda!
For you guys in Bermuda, I'm not sure the rain is over yet. Although the 'center' according to the NHC is at 32.9N, 65.5W, he's not very organized so that's just to give us an idea of location. However the convection is still mostly south of you (moving northwards), and it looks like it is re-building so you might have a "bit more" rain... hope you have your rain-hats and wellie boots ready!
From the NHC: Central pressure is estimated to be 1015mb (not low pressure at all!) and he's moving N at 12 mph with winds of 30mph.
This is probably my last update on TS Colin as well, unless he tries for yet another round!
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much change in status since yesterday in this one... it still has circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is building. It's somewhere around 24N, 46W, moving in a NW direction. There is dry air surrounding this system and some inhibiting wind shear, so the convection is northeast of the center, but it looks like it has closed circulation to me. I think this might be a Tropical Depression already. Maybe tomorrow the NHC will "Make it so!" (Capt. Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek NG). ;-)
Until the morrow,
Ciao!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Tropical Storm Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 7, Update A
Tropical Storm Colin:
Colin has decided that hanging around all day in the same general vicinity (gaining conviction and convection) is hard work and he'd like some rum-based cocktails for refreshment, so he's now making a move towards Bermuda. He is currently centered at about 29.4N, 65.7W, and is moving NNE at 7pm.
He's a very weak Tropical Storm, with winds barely at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure estimated to be 1012mb. Actually, with a pressure that high and winds that low I'd say he's not really a tropical storm but an ex-TS again... however I'll go with the NHC on this one for now. Despite the low wind and general disorganization he did pick up on the convection front, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. That's to be expected because wind shear is low and he's been hovering over waters of 28-29 deg C. Circulation is still strong in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it looks like it's weakening.
A late afternoon note from Steve in Bermuda: the <storm> has arrived. was having a lovely afternoon sketching palm trees. wind is okay but swivling rain. it's a downer.
The forecast track has the center passing close to Bermuda, with the highest chance being to the west of the island, but I think there's a chance he's going to pass to the east. Regardless, he'll be close enough to only need a short straw in his drink (and maybe a few dozen umbrellas ;-)). The difference between going to the west or to the east, even slightly, is important though because of the direction the winds will hit the island and also because the really heavy rain is (at the moment) mostly to the east of the center. The rain and thunderstorms, not the wind, will be the bigger player when he passes by.
More when he's visiting Bermuda tomorrow.
Atlantic Blobette:
Well this one decided to get it's act together in a rush - at least as far as circulation goes. There is now a better defined area of circulation, but it really is in the lowest couple of kilometers of the atmosphere. It's centered somewhere in the (very broad) vicinity of 20N, 40W... which is a nice and northern latitude - already north of the Caribbean. So there's a good chance that if this develops it may stay in the Atlantic (or follow Colin!). Although there is some circulation, the satellite images (see yesterday's blog entry on satellite imagery and how to look for yourselves) don't show much in the way of rain or thunderstorms... just some clouds. It's moving WNW at 15mph.
That's all from this side of the churning waters of the Atlantic for now.
Bye-ee!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Colin has decided that hanging around all day in the same general vicinity (gaining conviction and convection) is hard work and he'd like some rum-based cocktails for refreshment, so he's now making a move towards Bermuda. He is currently centered at about 29.4N, 65.7W, and is moving NNE at 7pm.
He's a very weak Tropical Storm, with winds barely at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure estimated to be 1012mb. Actually, with a pressure that high and winds that low I'd say he's not really a tropical storm but an ex-TS again... however I'll go with the NHC on this one for now. Despite the low wind and general disorganization he did pick up on the convection front, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. That's to be expected because wind shear is low and he's been hovering over waters of 28-29 deg C. Circulation is still strong in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it looks like it's weakening.
A late afternoon note from Steve in Bermuda: the <storm> has arrived. was having a lovely afternoon sketching palm trees. wind is okay but swivling rain. it's a downer.
The forecast track has the center passing close to Bermuda, with the highest chance being to the west of the island, but I think there's a chance he's going to pass to the east. Regardless, he'll be close enough to only need a short straw in his drink (and maybe a few dozen umbrellas ;-)). The difference between going to the west or to the east, even slightly, is important though because of the direction the winds will hit the island and also because the really heavy rain is (at the moment) mostly to the east of the center. The rain and thunderstorms, not the wind, will be the bigger player when he passes by.
More when he's visiting Bermuda tomorrow.
Atlantic Blobette:
Well this one decided to get it's act together in a rush - at least as far as circulation goes. There is now a better defined area of circulation, but it really is in the lowest couple of kilometers of the atmosphere. It's centered somewhere in the (very broad) vicinity of 20N, 40W... which is a nice and northern latitude - already north of the Caribbean. So there's a good chance that if this develops it may stay in the Atlantic (or follow Colin!). Although there is some circulation, the satellite images (see yesterday's blog entry on satellite imagery and how to look for yourselves) don't show much in the way of rain or thunderstorms... just some clouds. It's moving WNW at 15mph.
That's all from this side of the churning waters of the Atlantic for now.
Bye-ee!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Friday, August 06, 2010
TS Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 6, Update B
TS Colin:
Poor Colin... he's barely a Tropical Storm actually - although circulation is good, there is hardly any convection. Come on Colin, if you want to be a Tropical Storm with conviction, you gotta have convection! I got a note (or three) from Steve B. in Bermuda, who said it had started to get breezy about 5 hours ago... surfs up! ;-) It looks like he (Colin, not Steve) will pass to the east of Bermuda. Even if the eye goes directly over it, what little convection there is will be to the east.
Currently he's at 28.3N, 66.6W (!), and moving N at 9mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1009mb.
Satellite Imagery:
If you would like to see him swirling and twirling away in the Atlantic for yourself you can look at satellite images or movies. Go to the NHC site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml and scroll down to where it says 'Atlantic Views'. Under that it says 'GOES-East', and under that it says 'Atlantic Wide Views' or 'Western Atlantic' or 'Caribbean' etc. Under any of these, you can pick an image or a movie (Java or Flash). Visible gives you the visible image in black and white, so at night it's not as clear as during the day. Water Vapor (at the bottom of each list) gives you water vapor. The other one I use most frequently is IR AVN (2nd one down on the list), which is the infrared image with colours added on. These colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud. It gets colder the higher you get in the troposphere, so we can tell from cloud top temperature how strong the convection is. The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures (other than a dark gray), and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. These generally correspond to how much convection is occuring - the redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and yellow areas are mostly clouds, with some rain in the yellow areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (in the red/dark gray areas).
For Colin, I suggest looking at the Western Atlantic set of images. There is also usually a close up of a system that is of interest. These are near the top of this page and are labelled Atlantic Floater 1 (Colin), 2 etc.
Once you have a movie open, there are a series of tabs at the top. You can play with those, but they include things like latitude/longitude grids, sea surface temperature, and the forecast track of the storm. At the bottom is the time the image was taken. Have a play! Then you can follow other storms as they develop. How fun is that? You, too, could spend entire evenings sitting at home watching satellite image movies of storms developing. Just like me. Er... I mean I do other fun things too...really... ;-)
The Atlantic Blobette:
Looking at the Atlantic Wide imagery, you can see this 'little' blobette is still way out there in the Atlantic - somewhere around the 30-40W range, between 10-20N. If you look at the IR AVN images you will notice that although there are a lot of clouds at the moment there aren't many that are yellow, orange or red... they are mostly blue and white, which means it's just cloudy with not a lot of rain or thunderstorms. There's some low level circulation, but it's slap bang in the middle of a massive layer of dust blowing off the Sahara, which is drying out the atmosphere and inhibiting convection. I'll keep an eye on this because 'tis the season (ho ho ho), but for now it's just a bunch of clouds (with very little rain) and not a lot of convection.
That's it from me on the storm front for today. But to change the subject with absolutely no segueway whatsoever, Will L. sent me this amusing article from The Irish Times about tourism. It made me chuckle, so I thought it might make you chuckle too...
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/features/2010/0806/1224276300586.html
Enjoy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Poor Colin... he's barely a Tropical Storm actually - although circulation is good, there is hardly any convection. Come on Colin, if you want to be a Tropical Storm with conviction, you gotta have convection! I got a note (or three) from Steve B. in Bermuda, who said it had started to get breezy about 5 hours ago... surfs up! ;-) It looks like he (Colin, not Steve) will pass to the east of Bermuda. Even if the eye goes directly over it, what little convection there is will be to the east.
Currently he's at 28.3N, 66.6W (!), and moving N at 9mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1009mb.
Satellite Imagery:
If you would like to see him swirling and twirling away in the Atlantic for yourself you can look at satellite images or movies. Go to the NHC site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml and scroll down to where it says 'Atlantic Views'. Under that it says 'GOES-East', and under that it says 'Atlantic Wide Views' or 'Western Atlantic' or 'Caribbean' etc. Under any of these, you can pick an image or a movie (Java or Flash). Visible gives you the visible image in black and white, so at night it's not as clear as during the day. Water Vapor (at the bottom of each list) gives you water vapor. The other one I use most frequently is IR AVN (2nd one down on the list), which is the infrared image with colours added on. These colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud. It gets colder the higher you get in the troposphere, so we can tell from cloud top temperature how strong the convection is. The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures (other than a dark gray), and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. These generally correspond to how much convection is occuring - the redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and yellow areas are mostly clouds, with some rain in the yellow areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (in the red/dark gray areas).
For Colin, I suggest looking at the Western Atlantic set of images. There is also usually a close up of a system that is of interest. These are near the top of this page and are labelled Atlantic Floater 1 (Colin), 2 etc.
Once you have a movie open, there are a series of tabs at the top. You can play with those, but they include things like latitude/longitude grids, sea surface temperature, and the forecast track of the storm. At the bottom is the time the image was taken. Have a play! Then you can follow other storms as they develop. How fun is that? You, too, could spend entire evenings sitting at home watching satellite image movies of storms developing. Just like me. Er... I mean I do other fun things too...really... ;-)
The Atlantic Blobette:
Looking at the Atlantic Wide imagery, you can see this 'little' blobette is still way out there in the Atlantic - somewhere around the 30-40W range, between 10-20N. If you look at the IR AVN images you will notice that although there are a lot of clouds at the moment there aren't many that are yellow, orange or red... they are mostly blue and white, which means it's just cloudy with not a lot of rain or thunderstorms. There's some low level circulation, but it's slap bang in the middle of a massive layer of dust blowing off the Sahara, which is drying out the atmosphere and inhibiting convection. I'll keep an eye on this because 'tis the season (ho ho ho), but for now it's just a bunch of clouds (with very little rain) and not a lot of convection.
That's it from me on the storm front for today. But to change the subject with absolutely no segueway whatsoever, Will L. sent me this amusing article from The Irish Times about tourism. It made me chuckle, so I thought it might make you chuckle too...
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/features/2010/0806/1224276300586.html
Enjoy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Colin: August 6, Update A
The immortal phrase "I'm not dead yet" (Monty Python) springs to mind for some reason. ;-)
So... the Tropical Storm Formerly Known As 'The Tropical Storm Formerly Known As Colin' IS BACK! (I can see why Colin thought he'd try for a remake of Terminator. After all, this is a summer of macho-men movies with The A-Team and that other one with all those 80s and90s 'action' actors in it that I'm obviously not going to see.)
This time he really does look like a Tropical Storm (well he did yesterday and the day before), so I won't mumble or grumble anymore about a wasted name. He was steadily improving in looks for the last couple of days, with pretty strong circulation in the lowest little bit (say lowest 2-3 km) of the troposphere (the name for the lowest 10-16km of our atmosphere)... but that has now extended and the circulation looks strong from about 6-7km down to the surface.
He was upgraded back to a TS yesterday evening, and is currently centered at 26.4N, 67.3W, moving NNW at 14mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1007mb with maximum wind speeds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's not very well put together - the center of circulation is easily seen in satellite images and what little convection there is, is entirely to the east because of wind shear. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be too much in the way of convection so although he is forecast to remain a tropical storm for the next few days (he passes Bermuda tomorrow). Unless he does some body-building exercises I'm not sure I'd classify him as such for much longer.
If there are any tales from Bermuda, I'll let y'all know. They are probably out on a research cruise ship at sea.... ;-)
More later amigos!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
So... the Tropical Storm Formerly Known As 'The Tropical Storm Formerly Known As Colin' IS BACK! (I can see why Colin thought he'd try for a remake of Terminator. After all, this is a summer of macho-men movies with The A-Team and that other one with all those 80s and90s 'action' actors in it that I'm obviously not going to see.)
This time he really does look like a Tropical Storm (well he did yesterday and the day before), so I won't mumble or grumble anymore about a wasted name. He was steadily improving in looks for the last couple of days, with pretty strong circulation in the lowest little bit (say lowest 2-3 km) of the troposphere (the name for the lowest 10-16km of our atmosphere)... but that has now extended and the circulation looks strong from about 6-7km down to the surface.
He was upgraded back to a TS yesterday evening, and is currently centered at 26.4N, 67.3W, moving NNW at 14mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1007mb with maximum wind speeds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's not very well put together - the center of circulation is easily seen in satellite images and what little convection there is, is entirely to the east because of wind shear. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be too much in the way of convection so although he is forecast to remain a tropical storm for the next few days (he passes Bermuda tomorrow). Unless he does some body-building exercises I'm not sure I'd classify him as such for much longer.
If there are any tales from Bermuda, I'll let y'all know. They are probably out on a research cruise ship at sea.... ;-)
More later amigos!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
The Tropical Storm Formerly Known As Colin: August 3, Update A
Blink and you missed it! Tropical Storm Colin is now ex-Tropical Storm Colin. I had all these Colin jokes planned... oh well, I'll have to save them for next time (in 6 years when the name comes round again). :-)
I don't know why they bothered giving him a name because he didn't really look like a tropical storm for much more than two minutes. He remained a dinky little thing for the duration. Too much dry air and dust just didn't let that convection get beyond a certain point, despite the high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. We've had more severe daily thunderstorms! There was some circulation, but it remained confined to the lower part of the troposphere and was already weakening when they declared him a named storm. The forecast track was, indeed, moved southward as I thought it might be in my last update because he was on a more westward trajectory. Now he's back to being a Tropical Depression and what a waste of a named storm! This one shouldn't really count when they do the tally at the end of the year! (mumble grumble).
"He" is currently at about 15.8N, 53.8W, moving WNW at a rapid 35mph (meaning he's not a tropical storm at all, but part of a low frontal system). Central pressure is estimated to be around 1006mb. The winds are still just about tropical storm force at 40 mph (TS lower limit is 39mph), but that's just an estimate based on remote satellite data. Circulation is still weakening.
This is my last entry on this blob, unless he decides to try again for that reality thingy. Next name is Danielle. Ooh... one of my favourite movies has a character called Danielle. :-)
Adieu for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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I don't know why they bothered giving him a name because he didn't really look like a tropical storm for much more than two minutes. He remained a dinky little thing for the duration. Too much dry air and dust just didn't let that convection get beyond a certain point, despite the high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. We've had more severe daily thunderstorms! There was some circulation, but it remained confined to the lower part of the troposphere and was already weakening when they declared him a named storm. The forecast track was, indeed, moved southward as I thought it might be in my last update because he was on a more westward trajectory. Now he's back to being a Tropical Depression and what a waste of a named storm! This one shouldn't really count when they do the tally at the end of the year! (mumble grumble).
"He" is currently at about 15.8N, 53.8W, moving WNW at a rapid 35mph (meaning he's not a tropical storm at all, but part of a low frontal system). Central pressure is estimated to be around 1006mb. The winds are still just about tropical storm force at 40 mph (TS lower limit is 39mph), but that's just an estimate based on remote satellite data. Circulation is still weakening.
This is my last entry on this blob, unless he decides to try again for that reality thingy. Next name is Danielle. Ooh... one of my favourite movies has a character called Danielle. :-)
Adieu for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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