Saturday, August 07, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 7, Update A

Tropical Storm Colin:
Colin has decided that hanging around all day in the same general vicinity (gaining conviction and convection) is hard work and he'd like some rum-based cocktails for refreshment, so he's now making a move towards Bermuda. He is currently centered at about 29.4N, 65.7W, and is moving NNE at 7pm.
He's a very weak Tropical Storm, with winds barely at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure estimated to be 1012mb. Actually, with a pressure that high and winds that low I'd say he's not really a tropical storm but an ex-TS again... however I'll go with the NHC on this one for now. Despite the low wind and general disorganization he did pick up on the convection front, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. That's to be expected because wind shear is low and he's been hovering over waters of 28-29 deg C. Circulation is still strong in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it looks like it's weakening. 
A late afternoon note from Steve in Bermuda: the <storm> has arrived. was having a lovely afternoon sketching palm trees. wind is okay but swivling rain. it's a downer.
The forecast track has the center passing close to Bermuda, with the highest chance being to the west of the island, but I think there's a chance he's going to pass to the east. Regardless, he'll be close enough to only need a short straw in his drink (and maybe a few dozen umbrellas ;-)). The difference between going to the west or to the east, even slightly, is important though because of the direction the winds will hit the island and also because the really heavy rain is (at the moment) mostly to the east of the center. The rain and thunderstorms, not the wind, will be the bigger player when he passes by.  
More when he's visiting Bermuda tomorrow.
Atlantic Blobette:
Well this one decided to get it's act together in a rush - at least as far as circulation goes. There is now a better defined area of circulation, but it really is in the lowest couple of kilometers of the atmosphere. It's centered somewhere in the (very broad) vicinity of 20N, 40W... which is a nice and northern latitude - already north of the Caribbean. So there's a good chance that if this develops it may stay in the Atlantic (or follow Colin!). Although there is some circulation, the satellite images (see yesterday's blog entry on satellite imagery and how to look for yourselves) don't show much in the way of rain or thunderstorms... just some clouds. It's moving WNW at 15mph. 
That's all from this side of the churning waters of the Atlantic for now.
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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