Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Tropical Depression 5: August 11, Update A

This is, at the moment, a very poor excuse for an official tropical depression! Convection is really minimal (although that might pick up during the day of course), and the circulation is so diffuse that it's more like a front than I usually see in tropical depressions or storms. I don't see this becoming much of a storm.
Officially, as of the 5am advisory, the center is at 26.8N, 85.1W, but it's so poorly formed that the center could be anywhere in that area and as far north as 28N. Central pressure is 1008mb, which is still pretty high. It's moving NW at 10mph, and the wind speed has been kept to 35mph, but I suspect it's less than that. Observations from a USF/College of Marine Science buoy  ( located at 27.5N, 83.7W showed 21.7 mph winds about 2-3 hours ago, with an increasing trend in wind speed.
There is little wind shear, which will allow the storm to develop. But counteracting that, it is surrounded by dry air and although sea surface temperatures are a slightly toasty 30+ deg C, the warm water is a very shallow layer. Maybe it'll get up to Tropical Storm status at some point, maybe not.

The water level at Naples leveled out at 1ft above normal, St. Pete is just under a foot above normal but also looks like it leveled out, Cedar Key is still rising, but just under 1 foot, Appalachicola is at just over 1ft, and Pensacola looked like it peaked at 1ft and is holding steady (kinda) at the moment.

The forecast track is still currently towards the Mississippi delta, but to me, it looks like it will make land-fall east of there... maybe even on the Florida Panhandle. It's tricky to tell because it's a messy little blob. The Gulf has definitely had worse fronts pass through!
From J.D. in Pinellas an on-the-ground weather report: "It's been swirly girly in Pinellas County all day. Felt very tropical something growing." Thanks! :-)
This will be a two-update day I reckon. Lucky you! ;-) But first, it's off to the shops for me and then for a lurverly coastal walk (i do like holidays! :-) The sun even came out to play again. Yes, in England. It's been sunny here for months on end... i'm getting quite a tan! ;-)).
Toodle pip!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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