Sunday, August 22, 2010

Tropical Depression 6: August 22, Update A

Here we go. A real storm. Yay! (Maybe.) (For now anyway.) (And if it stays in the Atlantic.) (I'd like to apologise for the writer of this entry for using too many parenthesis. The writer has been sacked.) (We now) (have a) (new writer.) (Who has also just been sacked and we're going back to the original). (A la classic Monty Python. ;-)).
Yesterday our Atlantic Blobette was upgraded to a Tropical Depression, meaning it had a closed circulation and winds of less than 39 mph. The forecast has it upgrading to a Tropical Storm later today (Danielle), and I don't see anything that will stop that progression.
It's currently somewhere around 11.8N, 33.1W, moving WNW at 8mph. Central pressure is 1008mb and wind speed is 35mph. I think it will continue on a general WNW path for now.
Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to sustain a storm, at 28-30 deg C, with waters of 26.5 deg C in the upper 50m of the water column. Wind shear is on the lower end of the spectrum and looks like it will remain low for the next few days. There is some dry air, mixed with Saharan Dust, north of the system, but it's far away enough from the center that I don't think it will inhibit convection continuing to develop slowly. The one thing about this Depression that I haven't seen in the others we've had this year is that the vorticity (circulation) is already quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, but also extends up to the top of the troposphere (albeit weakly). If this continues to hold steady or improve, this has a good chance of being a hurricane.
Now I hope you are sitting for this as it will come as a bit of a shock to my long-time readers ... but I agree with the NHC forecast at the moment for both track and intensity! :-) (don't worry, i'm sure at some point this year I'll recover and become my cantankerous old self ;-)).
Enjoy your Sunday!  
More later!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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