Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Atlantic Blobette and Tropical Depression 5: August 10, Update A

Atlantic Blobette:
Yet again, not much change in this system. It's just there. Hanging out, chatting with the fishes at around 25N, 52W. Some convection (not much), some low level atmospheric circulation (not much). It's just there. Until it does something interesting, this is my last update on this blobette.
Tropical Depression 5:
Yesterday this was the Gulf of Mexico Blob but circulation has improved even though convection has decreased. A plane was sent into the system and identified closed circulation so this has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. The center is at about 26N, 84.1W, with a central pressure of 1007mb. Winds are 35mph. The bulk of the rain and thundery weather is in the southern part of this system and coincides with the area of the deepest warm water (i.e. the Loop Current - see science alert in http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/07/tropical-depression-bonnie-july-23.html for ocean currents info). Even then, the rain is less severe than the stuff that passed across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday (or was it the day before).
Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are high - over 30 deg C. It's moving NW at 6pm, and the forecast track at the moment takes it straight to the mouth of the Mississippi on Thursday... I haven't yet had a chance to see my usual pressure fields etc. Hopefully tomorrow. 
One thing to watch out for is rising water levels along the coast of Florida and then eventually parts of the northern Gulf. As winds circulate in a counter-clockwise direction in a tropical storm in the northern hemisphere, they will push water up against the coast. To check water levels, go to http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ (there's a link on the left side of my blog page too), click on 'State Maps' on the left, click on the state you are interested in (e.g. Florida), click on the location there are observations (e.g. Naples) and you'll get a figure that shows the observed water level (red), the predicted water level (blue and based on tides), and the difference (green). So, for example, at the moment water level is 1ft above normal in Naples and is approaching that at Pensacola.
Right... it be waaay past sleepy time where I am!
Until tomorrow, zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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