Hurricane Laura: August 25, Update A

Not much time for dilly dallying today, so I'll jump right in. 

Hurricane Laura is now at 25.2N, 89.5W, heading WNW at 17mph... scheduled to make landfall in the LA/TX border tomorrow night. 

I can see why the track takes her to that area - the models are following the low pressure that was the former TD Marco. However, I think there is a chance that she may continue WNW for a little longer than expected. We'll know by the morning because by then she should have made a NW turn. 

She currently has winds of 90mph, central pressure 978mb, which makes her a strong cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). She's certainly got a lot of strong convection in her system, as we can see from this infrared satellite imagery:

There is strong vorticity throughout the troposphere which means she is definitely a hurricane. However she doesn't yet have an eye, so she's not a cat 2. 

There is a little wind shear to the northwest side of the system which you can see as the clouds are not as robust and are breaking up. That wind shear looks like it will get stronger the closer she gets to the coast - this is good. I know that currently the NHC have her forecast to be a mid-sized major cat 3 hurricane on landfall with winds of 120mph (cat 3 range: 111 - 129mph), but that wind shear is going to play a role in keeping her a little in check. (By the way, a major hurricane is a cat 3 or higher). 

As for the ocean, although the sea surface is around 30 deg C, only the upper 50m is warmer than 26 deg C. This means that she has enough to feed on, but it's not the same as the boost she would get if she was going over deeper warm water - which is where we usually see the rapid intensification. 

Given these conditions, I'm not sure she's going to be a cat 3 at landfall - I would say she'll be a cat 2 hurricane at landfall. But if she is a cat 3 we will know because she will have a really robust, well developed, and unwavering eye. 

Regardless, of course, this one is a hurricane and she is slightly wider than the length of the LA coast at the moment - so lots of rain, and some windy weather over quite a few places (including inland as she crosses the US)! The storm surge will be on the east side of the storm as water is pushed onshore. To check storm surge as she gets closer, you can go to the tidesandcurrents website and zoom into the area of interest (as described in the Technical Alert from June, here).  

To look at data in the Gulf of Mexico, you can go to the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System network - also described in the Technical Alert in this June post. You can click on the offshore network to find out wind speed... the highest I've seen so far is just over 35mph at one location in the Gulf which is now just under the northwest outer area bands of Laura. 

Good luck and be safe in the LA/TX area! 

Ciao for now,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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