Sunday, August 02, 2020

Tropical Storm Isaias: August 2, Update A

Hey ho, things are looking better today for you Isaias fans out there....

Overnight, as he left the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Isaias actually weakened a little (he's still on the stronger end of the Tropical Storm spectrum). His winds are currently at 65mph, central pressure 995mb (TS range: 39-73mph). Despite A LOT of convection (which we expect because he's over some very warm water)...

... there is no sign of vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere, which means he's not a hurricane. There's very little sign of circulation developing at those lofty heights at the moment, so I agree with the NHC that it's unlikely that he'll get back to full-fledged hurricane level.

We can begin to see the interaction with land (Florida) and wind shear has picked up a bit for now, which we can also see as the clouds continue to stream off to the northeast. 

The other good news is that his center is staying offshore from Florida. He is moving along the eastern side of the Cone of Uncertainty. Although there is a bunch of rain currently being dumped over Florida (and some flooding), that's more-or-less it. 

He's currently at 26.9N, 79.6W, heading NNW at a slowish 8mph. The track has shifted to the east to align with his more eastward center. 
As he moves north, wind shear will decrease a little again, but without that upper level circulation his structure is not quite right for a fully developed hurricane so he'll remain a strong Tropical Storm - there's a chance there will be fluctuations in intensity, possibly bringing him close to hurricane strength again today and into tomorrow, but he'll mostly be a rainy storm with some storm surge (and surfing waves I imagine!). Get your brollies and wellies dusted and ready for use. 

Ciao for now!

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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