Ho hum, another weekend over and tomorrow we should see Tropical Storm Marco making landfall in the northern Gulf. First...
Tropical Storm Laura
She's currently officially at 20.1N, 76.6W, heading WNW at a very fast 21mph, and, alas, is staying on the southern side of Cuba. I think she'll continue to stay to the southern side of that cone of uncertainty, which itself may continue to move a little southward over the next day or so.
The longer-term track takes her across the Gulf of course and into the Louisiana area for landfall on Wednesday. There is an ~100 mile area that they think she could land within on Wednesday, so definitely keep an eye on the entire cone.
As for her intensity, although the NHC has increased this throughout the day from the 45mph from this morning, I still think they officially had this one far too low earlier today. In fact, I'd say she has weakened now to the the official 65mph winds (central pressure 1000mb). This makes her a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). She is moving over/close to Cuba, which is one reason why she's weakened - land interactions - but there is still a vorticity (circulation) signal throughout the entire troposphere. It's a little weaker in the upper levels now compared to the image I posted this morning because there is a bit of wind shear in play as well, but the circulation is still there which indicates that she is a strong Tropical Storm/border-line hurricane now, and was therefore stronger earlier. We can also see the weakening in the satellite imagery compared to earlier as the clouds are not as circular now (from the wind shear on the eastern side of the storm). However, the convection is still very very strong. Just a reminder that the red areas have heavy thunderstorms and tornados.
I think she'll stay more over water than land, alas, as she moves along Cuba, and therefore will stay as a strong Tropical Storm/close to hurricane strength throughout the day tomorrow - the only reason she may not get up to full hurricane level is because of the land interaction. However, she is moving over some very hot water and the upper ~150-175m of the water is warmer than 26 deg C:
Moving right along...
Tropical Storm Marco
He was upgraded to a hurricane earlier today, which I really think shouldn't have happened so I'm glad they brought him back to a Tropical Storm level, which I agree with. He is currently officially at 26.8N, 87.6W, heading NNW at 12mph.
That wind shear is really keeping Marco in check and his clouds haven't stopped streaming merrily off to the northeast all day. We can see when he moved over that colder spot in the middle of the Gulf as the convection eased up earlier today (beginning of the satellite loop below), but it has picked back up now he's away from that area. Northern Florida got quite a few buckets of rain earlier today I see.
It doesn't look to me as though the center is where they think it is - I would say he's a little more to the north and east - but I will go with the NHC because the center was detected by a plane (which is the best data) and is to the southwest edge of the heavy convection. Although the track is supposed to turn to the Northwest soon, the heaviest weather looks like it will be on the eastern side; if you are in MS/AL and the Florida panhandle, I'd say you may get some buckets of rain with potential thundery weather.
I agree with the NHC on the Tropical Storm status. There isn't any circulation in the upper troposphere, there is wind shear, he is going to start interacting with land soon, and although he is over water that is around 30 deg C (which is why there is so much convection), only the upper ~50m is warmer than 26 deg C - nothing like the water that Laura is over!
Of course, please listen to your emergency managers and local authorities because they have the best local information!
Right-oh, off to sleep here in California. I'll be up early to see what these two monkeys got up to overnight! (although it's a work day tomorrow so I may not be posting twice).
Be safe out there!
Ciao for now!
J.
Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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