Tropical Depression 11: August 12, Update A

There's a debate going on in the UK at the moment on whether to open schools or keep the pubs open. It's the UK, the land that produced such intellectual giants such as Austen, Shakespeare, Newton, me, Hawking, Dickens, Tolkien, Lovelace etc... so of course... 

<shrug shoulders> ;-) 

Meanwhile, a short hop to the south west of that sign, Tropical Depression 11 is trying to get organized in the Atlantic. It's currently at 12.5N, 47.1W, heading W at 15mph. 

It's stayed on a little more westward track than the NHC thought yesterday, so the 24-hour path shifted slightly south although there isn't too much change as it approaches the islands. 

It's got some vorticity (circulation) in the lower half of the troposphere but it's fairly weak in the middle-levels, so I agree that this is on the cusp of being a Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph) with winds of 35mph. 

The NHC thought this would be a TS by now, but of course our friend the Saharan Air Layer is putting a little drier on this damp storm:

And we can see from the satellite imagery that the convection in this system has decreased in the last few hours:

 

If he survives the transition through the SAL then there's the possibility of a few drops of rain over the northeastern Caribbean over the weekend. But it won't be very strong because there's also some wind shear between you. 

The next name would be Josephine. A name beginning with 'J'... how bad can that really be anyway? ;-) 

Toodle pip!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------