Laura is the story of the day today - and tomorrow! Phew. What a storm.
She's making landfall now (12am CDT on 27th August) over Cameron parish as a strong cat 4 storm with winds of 150mph, central pressure 938mb (Cat 4 range: 130-156mph):
The area in Louisiana that she is making landfall in is relatively sparsly populated (fortunately). As she moves over land, we can already begin to see her weakening. However, the strong convection and weather covers quite a large area and she will continue with that stormy weather and rain as she moves inland for a bit.
The storm surge just to the west at Sabine Pass in TX showed water levels have reached around 3.5ft above normal:
She is currently at 25.9N, 93.3W, heading NNW at 15mph.
As she heads inland there will be potential flooding - she has a lot of rain. Even though she (or you) may not be near the coast, remember to run from the water and hide from the wind - meaning if you are in an area that is prone to flooding easily, try and move to higher ground (well ahead of the storm!). Water is generally the biggest cause for fatalities in a storm, not the wind. Above all, listen to your local emergency managers.
What we saw today was extreme rapid intensification that exceeded any of the forecasts (NHC/models/mine too!). This is a very active area of cyclone research and has been for a long time. There is much we don't know about the physics for these events, however, as our technologies improve, so does our ability to gather the data and observations needed for science. So, for Laura, I know there are instruments out there right now underwater gathering data for scientists to analyze afterwards. I think there will be a lot to learn from this storm that will hopefully help in improving the forecasts for such rapid intensifications in the future. I will be looking out for the findings!
The forecast is for her to be a cat 2 storm by the middle of the day. The strong wind shear as she approached the coast had very little effect on her because she was just so well developed. But as she moves inland, the effect of land will weaken her and that balance should shift.
More tomorrow!
J.
Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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