Tropical Depression 13: August 19, Update A

Well that was a pleasant interlude between storms, but I'm ready for the next few days... :-)

We have a new Tropical Depression in the Atlantic today... this was the Atlantic blob a few days ago, but was just upgraded today and may actually be the future TS Laura. She's currently at 14.6N, 47.9W heading WNW at a quick 20mph:

I agree with the Tropical Depression designation - she's close to being a Tropical Storm but not quite there yet. But I think they may have the center a little too far north at the moment, which means that track may not be, er, quite on track. 

You can see her clearly swirling in the Atlantic in this satellite image: 

But you can also see that the deep convection is mostly to the north and west of the center of circulation. This is because she is currently in some drier Saharan Air Layer, which is inhibiting the convection from developing. 

However, I agree with the NHC on their next 1-2 day estimate on intensity - she will become a Tropical Storm. I expect her to have cleared the SAL drier air in the next day or so which will allow her to develop. But also, she will move over warmer waters. She's currently over sea surface temperatures of 26.5 deg C, but tomorrow, she'll be moving over waters warmer than 27 deg C. The upper ~80m to 100m of the water column are warmer than 26 deg C, so she has enough to keep her well fed (just like me and my ice cream stock ;-)). 

The forecast track takes her north of the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles and over the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas, before reaching to Florida, and then moving into the Gulf by Monday. A lot can happen between now and then, including deviations that take her over the islands along the northern Caribbean - but regardless of the actual track, all of you on the islands should be ready for some rainfall from the outer bands over the weekend. 

Meanwhile, in the Caribbean there was a little blob. This one is really not very strong - there is some circulation in the very lowest level of the troposphere at the moment, but nothing in the middle levels. And as you can see from the satellite image above, the convection is trying to amount to something. Clearly not as pulled together as TD13. 

And from the atmosphere to the deep sea... in case you want to explore a bit of our world, the Schmidt Ocean Institute has some live dives currently going on into the deeper parts of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. There are some very weird and cool creatures and never before seen sea floor! Here is the link to todays dive, which went down to 1600m beneath the sea surface (that's Dr. Dughal Lyndsay, one of the scientists tuning into the expedition remotely). 

The dives and highlights are all archived for viewing at any time (very good for entertaining kids of all ages!) here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1m5LdKP0m64n8nY3NhK6Zg. 

I'll be back tomorrow!

Ciao,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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