Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Storm Marco: August 23, Update A

Well I woke up this morning and the first thing I did was look in on how our two storms did overnight... so this is a quick note for now as I drink my morning cuppa tea.

Marco is undergoing wind shear, so although there is a lot of convection because he is over warm water, and warm deep water, he's still just below hurricane strength, with 70mph winds and a central pressure 993mb (TS range: 39-73mph). I would say he's perhaps a little weaker than this because there is zero signs of vorticity/circulation in the upper troposphere. He is officially at 24.2N, 87.1W, heading NNW at 13mph.

Laura on the other hand has stayed on a southern track, so actually stayed south of most of the Dominican Republic overnight, which means she was over that dangerously deep warm water! So, although officially they have her as a very weak Tropical Storm with winds of 45mph, central pressure 1005mb, I think that's way too low and she is definitely a cat 1 hurricane. She isn't in an area of strong wind shear and her convection and structure has really improved overnight:

The only reason we see even a small decrease is because she is passing over the southeastern tip of Haiti - including the peninsula that stick out there. I think she'll be a hurricane upon approaching Cuba. Again, if she stays to the south, there is a LOT of very warm water so a light skirting with land won't be enough to keep her from staying a hurricane. Ideally, I'd like her to pass directly over the middle part of Cuba. She is officially at 19.1N, 72.1W, heading WNW at 18mph.

And equally importantly there is very strong vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere now as well as in the middle and lower levels - the map from the upper level - 200mb: 

Nothing at those heights for Marco, but a clearly developed Laura. 

And here's Marco's satellite appearance as well - to show the wind shear whisking those clouds away:

Back to my cup of tea. I'll pop in again later today. Hopefully by then they will have sorted out their forecast for Laura at least.

Toodle pip,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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