Sunday, September 20, 2020

Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storms Wilfred and Beta: September 19, Update A

Lychee martini night here in Los Angeles. :-) So jumping straight in (to the storms... I've already jumped straight into the martinis of course! ;-)... 

Hurricane Teddy 

He's currently at 27.3N, 61.2W, heading NW at 13mph and is still on track to be passing Bermuda - although it looks like he'll be a bit slower and pass by on Monday morning. 

Winds are now 115mph, central pressure is 956mb, which makes him a very weak cat 3 storm (cat 3 range: 111-129mph). He's been declining since yesterday's dry air started to enter the system. He's very much a hurricane still because his circulation is strong throughout the troposphere - although the middle level vorticity is no longer the structure we would expect to see with a storm. But I think he's weaker than the official intensity - I think he may even be weaker than a cat 2 now because as of a few hours ago, there was no longer an eye, so I would say his winds are at the most 90mph: 

He is a big storm though (in aerial extent) and will pass close(ish) to Bermuda so you will get a bit of a breeze and some jolly waves, even if you don't get rain. 

Tropical Storm Wilfred

He's at 14.5N, 40.5W, heading WNW at 16mph. He has some circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere, but it's disjointed in the middle troposphere. I still wouldn't really call him a Tropical Storm. His winds are officially 40mph, central pressure is 1007mb, so he's barely a TS (TS range: 39-73mph) and his convection continues to remain very weak: 

He's anticipated to officially remain a Tropical Storm tomorrow and then become a Tropical Depression by Monday. I think he's already a Tropical Depression, but as he's not going near anyone, it doesn't matter too greatly. I think this will be my last update on Wilfred (unless something goes awry tomorrow). 

Tropical Storm Beta

He's at 26.9N, 92.4W, heading N at a very slow 2mph. 

The center has shifted to the north and east during the day today, which means his track also shifted slightly northward. This is because he really was part of a low pressure front that extended northeastward. A plane that flew through the storm today found that "The strongest winds appear to be located near on old frontal boundary which extends north and east of Beta's center"

The vorticity map today shows that his circulation is becoming better defined in the lowest part of the troposphere, but is still part of a front that extends to the northeast towards AL/FL/GA, so he's still not really a Tropical Storm today either (in my sometimes-not-very-humble opinion ;-)). Here's the map from the lowest level of the troposphere:

And here's the one from the mid-troposphere (500mb):

There is a lot of wind shear, which we can see in the wind shear map - along that low pressure front line:

 And we can see this in the satellite imagery as well:

I think the 'center' may be found a little more to the north and east tomorrow because he really is a front and not a tropical storm, but we'll see. Regardless, most of the weather is obviously streaming off to the northeast. 

And finally, the remains of Paulette still linger - now she has a 60% chance of reforming. However, she is part of a low pressure system that stretches into Europe, so it would be very silly to say she's a TS yet! 

Right, off to sleep now. And of course, after the 4.6 magnitude quake last night, tonight... 


Until tomorrow!


Twitter:  jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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