Friday, September 18, 2020

Hurricane Teddy, Gulf of Mexico Blob: September 17, Update A

Public Service Announcement: Time Travel Alert! (this is a Dr. Who-friendly blog after all). Hurricane Teddy is now a category 4 storm in the Atlantic, but I don't want you to confuse this storm with the cat 4 Hurricane Teddy from 2032. Yes, you read that correctly...  from 2032. 

I found a 'Hypothetical Hurricanes' mock wikipedia-style website (Fandom) and an article on the 2032 Hurricane Teddy that makes landfall in Florida in 2032. The page also says, re Canada, "Teddy never made landfall, but passed close to the coast. 75 mph gusts were recorded near Nova Scotia, and weak storm surge flooded some areas." 

I can barely keep up with the storms of today, let alone the future! :-) Will the real Hurricane Teddy please stand up... 

Hurricane Teddy

He's currently at 20.9N, 54.7W, heading NW at 12mph. The track has shifted to the east of Bermuda, which is groov-i-licious, but they aren't quite out of the Cone of Uncertainty and he's expected to be in the vicinity in around 4 days. And it does look like he'll head to Nova Scotia after that, however, that track is quite uncertain so it's possible that he'll pass close to the coast with winds of 75mph and not make landfall...! (hmm...)

The big news is that he has winds of 140mph, central pressure of 945mb which makes him a mid-sized cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). I finally agree with the NHC on the intensity of this storm. This now makes him a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). He's an impressive storm and has had a good eye for the past few hours with no sign of wavering, which is classic for a cat 3 or higher storm:

There is a little wind shear, which you can see as the clouds are streaming off to the east. However, he's strong enough that this isn't going to do much. Water temperatures are over 28 deg C, with the upper ~75m of the water column being warmer than 26 deg C. The only thing I see that will keep him a little in check (at around this intensity) is that there is some dry air to his west and to the north:

The circulation is really good throughout the troposphere and you can clearly see his strong structure in the vorticity maps. Here's the map from the lowest level of the troposphere at 850mb: 
Here's the vorticity map from the mid-troposphere at 500mb: 
And here's the map from the upper troposphere at 200mb: 

More tomorrow on Teddy! 

Tropical Depression 22

Yesterday he was Gulf of Mexico Blob and tomorrow he will be Tropical Storm Wilfred. But for today, we have TD 22. He's now officially at 22N, 94.2W, heading NW at 3mph - yes, another slow storm! Luckily this one is in the middle of the Gulf and not hanging out near a coastline. 

Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure is 1005mb. From the vorticity maps above, you can see that there is some circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere, however at the mid-level it's not very 'circular' meaning the structure isn't quite right for a Tropical Storm yet - so I agree with the TD designation. He doesn't have much convection yet either, although it looks like he's trying: 

That convection is because he is over a warm water eddy - a smaller area of water where the upper ~100m is warmer than 26 deg C. Competing against this is some wind shear, which we can see with the clouds streaming off to the north. If he develops, it will be slowly because of that relatively strong wind shear. 


And I thought I'd finish with a little note about the first Medicane of the season - Medicane Cassilda (Ianos). A Medicane is a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean and one made landfall in Greece today:

I think it'll be a rainy and blustery sort of day over there! 

That's it for today. I know there's an Atlantic Blobette, which still has a 40% chance of development but I'll keep an eye on that one until something happens.  

Toodle pip!


Twitter: jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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