Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storms Beta and Paulette: September 21, Update A

Ah-ha... 

He should have stuck to writing. ;-) 

Hurricane Teddy

He's on his way towards Canada and passed around 165miles east of Bermuda early this afternoon with winds of 90mph, which made him a mid-to-strong cat 1 storm (cat 1: 74-95mph). He brought some rain to the island, and maybe a bit of a breeze. He's currently at 34.6N, 61.4W, heading N at 26mph.

That really rapid forward speed of 26mph is a sign that he's not really a tropical cyclone but has been caught up in that low pressure front and is really extratropical (or post-tropical). He has been tracking to the east of the Cone of Uncertainty and the track has shifted slightly to the east. I'm not sure how much more to the east his official track will shift, but most of the effects will be to the east, so it'll be a quite a 'breezy' Wednesday with some rain in Nova Scotia. 

Winds are now 100mph, central pressure is 956mb, which makes him a cat 2 storm again. This is because he is going over the Gulf Stream - but more than that, it's because of the low pressure front he is interacting with in the atmosphere. 

His circulation is now no longer that of a tropical storm at any level of the troposphere, but he does have a lot of vorticity from the low pressure front (or trough as it's called). You can see this in the vorticity maps. Here's the lowest level (850mb):

Here's the vorticity map in the mid-troposphere (500mb):

And here's the map from the upper level of the troposphere (200mb):

Definitely part of a longer low pressure front. He doesn't have much convection now either... 

But it's easier to see his clouds on a larger satellite image:

Be safe up there!

Tropical Storm Beta

He's just about 5 miles east of Port O'Connor, TX, and is officially at 28.4N, 96.3W, heading NW at that very slow 3mph... along the coast. We just saw this with Sally, except now it's along the Texas coast. The big difference between the two storms is that his a very weak Tropical Storm, not a hurricane. 

Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 999mb so he is very weak (TS range: 39-73mph). You can see the circulation in the vorticity maps above - there is some in the lowest level but the mid-level doesn't have a good circular structure, so borderline Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression seems about right and winds should decrease even further when he's over land. 

There isn't much convection - just what is being pulled off locally really: 

Hopefully he'll be a good sort of little storm - bringing rain, but not too much, and not too much wind either.  

Tropical Storm Paulette

And she's baaack... Remember Hurricane Paulette? She was the one that went directly over Bermuda a week ago. Well, she turned to the northeast after that, decreased to a blobette again, went over to the Europe side, headed south past the Azores, and has just re-formed south of the Azores. She's now at 33.9N, 25.3W, heading ENE at 16mph. 

Looks like she really wants to go to Europe, but apparently may not get there because of lockdowns. There's not much convection and if you look at the vorticity maps, you can see that there isn't a proper structure to this storm other than in the very lowest level of the troposphere. Winds are officially 60mph, central pressure is 1004mb, which officially makes her a mid-size Tropical Storm, but I think that's partly because of the atmosphere and upper tropospheric level low pressure area. 

I think that's it for today folks!

Ciao for now!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------