Sunday, September 02, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Felix: September 2, Update A

This planet that I'm on doesn't seem to provide me with easy access to
email. Or the news. It's quite a nice stress-free planet really... but
apparently I must be partial to some stress because here I am, on the

O.k., when I said a couple of days ago that this storm wasn't going to do
anything much for a couple of days, I had in my head that he would become
a low-to-moderate sized hurricane today. But Hurricane Felix has been a
very bad boy. In less than 24 hours, he has gone from a cat 1 (74-95 mph
winds) to a CAT 4!! (131-155 mph). This is one of the fastest developing
storms I can remember and the NHC estimate a pressure drop of 3.4 mb/hour.
I have to admit though, he is a very handsome looking storm with a really
nice eye.

He is currently at 13.8N, 72.5W, moving at 20mph (fast). Winds are near
140mph, but they only extend out at hurricane force to 25 miles at the
moment. Tropical storm force winds are out to 115 miles from the eye. I
agree with the track for the next few days - the high to the north is
keeping it south, and at the moment it looks like landfall in the Yucatan
Peninsula. Possibly Belieze.

The bad news (there's good news??!) is that he is now moving to even
warmer waters of 29 deg C or higher, and even worse, he will soon be
passing over an area in which the warm waters are very very deep. The wind
shear will not keep this down, and there is very little interaction with
land now that he is in the Caribbean. So, it looks like he will become a
cat 5 storm.

I will try and check in sometime in the next 24 hours, but overall, I
agree with the NHC official track. Landfall won't be for 2-3 days yet.

More sooner or later...
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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