Jyotika's Tropical Storms Blog: 2008

Sunday, November 30, 2008

November 30: Final Day of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hello my friends... Yes, it's the official end of the 2008 Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Hurray hurray. And Phew. What a season, hey?

To sum up the 2008 season: Officially we had 16 named storms, of which 8
were hurricanes, 5 major (cat 3 or higher). An above-average year (average
is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major) and the folks who play the
'Forecast-Exactly-How-Many-Storms-We'll-Get' roulette game were close to
the mark for a change. I suppose if you stick to the same lottery numbers
every time, eventually you'll be lucky.

I think some of you may have noticed in my fabulous (!), brilliant (?!?),
and witty (??!!) entries this year that I didn't *always* agree with the
official assessment. In my opinion there were about 4 storms that
shouldn't have been named, and one hurricane that could have remained a
Tropical Storm. But despite that, we did have some rather large hurricanes
(remember Big Beautiful Bertha?) - most of which had remarkable aim and
managed to hit Cuba or some other island en route to wherever it ended up.
It was most definitely an active year. I believe the crystal balls for
next year are already being polished. From NOAA the 2009 forecast is 14-18
named storms and 10 hurricanes. I forecast that 12 months from today we'll
know if the NOAA forecast was accurate. :)

As I wrap up this year, I'd like to thank those who helped me... my
fabulous technical support - the computing guys at CMS/USF for the
listserve, and C.H. in Texas for maintaining the blog. I should also thank
the St. Pete Times - after that article, the readership increased a tad...
from an estimated 600-700 to over 2000. Eeek!! I need to thank our
intrepid reporters in the field - it seemed like there was someone who
read this in the path of almost every storm this year - from Bermuda to
the Caribbean to Texas to Canada! It was pretty darn tootin' cool getting
real picture "real-time" reports from you all. I also thank all of you for
continuing to read this drivel ;) ... the hilarious comments I got back
made the whole thing so much more entertaining (for me and your
fellow-readers). Finally, my thanks to my friends, family and colleagues
for their sometimes futile efforts in keeping me sane and helping me
retain a sense of humour... good luck with that ;) And to my producers,
director, and fellow-actors... oh, sorry, wrong thank-you speech.

Have a wonderful 'off-season' (hurricane), best of luck for those whose
'cyclone season' is just beginning! (I got your notes - thank you), happy
holidays, wishing you all a great New Year, keep laughing, keep enjoying
the obscure words etc etc...

It's time for me to hibernate now... that's all for now folks.

TOODLE PIP, ;)
J.

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Disclaimer... blah blah blah.... (see the website blog archives if you
want to read it).
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Sunday, November 09, 2008

Tropical Depression Paloma: November 9 Update A

She rapidly deteriorated after landfall in Cuba because of wind shear plus
land interaction. By this morning there was no convection over Cuba, just
some tropical storm force winds. She pretty much stalled this afternoon
(and remains 'stuck'), fortunately whilst still over land and is now back
to being a depression (still over Cuba) at around 21.2 N, 78W. Winds are
near/less than 35 mph, central pressure 1004mb. By the time she emerges,
she won't amount to anything for the Bahamas.

I haven't heard of any injuries in Cuba, but they had coastal flooding,
power and communication loss of course. This was the fifth hurricane to
hit Cuba this year (I think). Having been in Florida in 2004, I can just
about imagine how fed-up and exhausted they must be!

Grand Cayman also got off very lightly apparently. The worst hit was
Cayman Brac with island-wide damage to buildings - some totally gone.

As she's a depression now I think this is my last entry on Paloma - unless
she picks up again, which doesn't look likely.

That's all for now folks.
Be good!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Hurricane Paloma: November 8 Update B

Paloma made landfall in southern Cuba a short while ago (between 6-6.20pm
EST) as a strong cat 3 storm with estimated winds of 125 mph (cat 3:
111-130 mph). She did begin to deteriorate as she appraoched Cuba and the
eye collapsed well before landfall - a combination of wind shear and land
interaction. That wind value may be a bit of an overestimate - seems
strong for a storm with no eye at all, but she's still a strong storm. She
also picked up speed earlier, and is now moving at about 10mph in a NE
direction - so she will have crossed Cuba by tomorrow afternoon.

Cuba and the wind shear will take its toll, and she should be a TS or weak
cat 1 when she emerges tomorrow. Wind shear is now over 35-46 mph, and
will continue to increase tomorrow. Water temperatures north of Cuba (in
the Bahamas region) are 26-28 deg C, but only the upper 50m (at the most)
have waters warmer than 26 deg C, so there is less for the storm to draw
upon.

That's it for today folks.
Ciao,
J.

Hurricane Paloma: November 8 Update A

!?$$?!?*#!!?@# I expect a few people out there thinking or saying the same
thing about this system - maybe in a different language though. This storm
is *not* living up to its name...Paloma means Dove in spanish (thanks EE).
Mother Nature didn't get any of the memo's apparently.

She's now a mid-sized cat 4 (cat 4 range: 131-155mph) with 140 mph winds
(pressure: 943 mb), and although vertical wind shear is between 23-46 mph,
she's too strong for it alone to have a significant impact. She just
passed Cayman Brac - it was pretty much a direct hit with the eyewall
passing over the island. She's heading towards Cuba, officially moving NE
at 8mph. It looks to me like she's going east of the current center of
cone forecast so she'll make landfall in the southern part of the island
as a Major Hurricane overnight tonight. Her lovely clear eye is at about
20N, 79W.

The combined wind shear and interaction with Cuba will bring her down in
intensity, but the track beyond Cuba is still all over the place... most
models have her making a U-turn (in a no-U-turn zone may I add), and bring
her back to make landfall in Cuba again (possibly getting as far as the
Bahamas). The "cone of uncertainty" beyond Cuba is actually a "circle of
uncertainty". Is there still a part of Cuba that hasn't been hit this
year? I don't have any pressure map information at all at this point so I
can't even begin to comment on the track after Cuba. Maybe that's also the
problem with the models. There's just no data out there for some reason.

The only good thing I can say about this system is that there were at
least two computer models that predicted this sort of intensity...although
they then recomputed and backed off so I don't know if it was predicted
for the correct reasons, but still, it's worth keeping a closer eye on
those for future storms. I, of course, was off target with this one and am
considering a change in career to cheese maker (hmmm... cheese).

More later.
J.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Hurricane Paloma: November 7 Update B

Bother bother bother. She's still intensifying. Bother - those poor
little Cayman Islands! They're barely above sea level as it is. This
won't be pretty.

Now a cat 2, she's looking almost beautiful - a nice eye, currently
centered at about 18.6N, 81.1W. She's a bit ragged looking to the north
where there's some wind shear. Winds are 105 mph (central pressure:
967mb), making her a pretty decent strength cat 2 (cat 2 range:
96-110mph), and the convection has increased again (as suspected, it was
a cycle we saw earlier). The worst of the convection (strong
thunderstorms etc) is already over Grand Cayman, even though she's still
south of the island. She's moving NNE and if she keeps on that heading,
her eye will pass just east of Grand Cayman sometime in the middle of
the night and maybe just west of the remaining Cayman Islands tomorrow
morning.

She has slowed down further to 6mph though. Slowing down is not good. It
gives her time to grow to a cat 3, which, if it's going to happen, will
occur soon (within next 12 hours) - before she reaches Cuba. The wind
shear increases even more tomorrow (or rather she'll move into a higher
wind shear environment to her north), so The Plan is that she'll begin
to weaken before she gets as far north as Cuba (landfall on Sunday) -
(are you listening to The Plan Mother Nature??).

The computer model tracks are now all over the place (compared to
yesterday and today). They take her into Cuba (which we all agree on),
and then get a bit confused north of Cuba - some taking her
west/southwest - back towards er... Cuba ... hmm. That's 4 or 5 days
away yet though. One reason for this confusion is the uncertainty about
whether she will survive the increased wind shear tomorrow and
interaction with Cuba over the weekend and still emerge as a storm - I
don't think she will be much after her first bout with Cuba. The other
problem with the forecasting is that she's slowing down. That was not
expected. I don't have good resolution pressure maps for the Caribbean,
but slowing down indicates that she's bumping up against that high
pressure - she's trying to 'move uphill'. Slowing down, bad. High
resolution pressure maps would have been very nice in this case.

Well that's it for today. I'll send out another update tomorrow probably.

It's been a busy week... time for a glass of wine now methinks.
Adieu,
J.

Hurricane Paloma: November 7 Update A

As expected, she's been steadily intensifying and was officially named a
hurricane last night. With nothing to stop her from intensifying, that's
not a big surprise.

She's heading N at 7mph, towards Grand Cayman. They are forecasting a NE
turn later today/tonight so she'll head to Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac. I think there's still a chance she'll stay northwards longer than
that track suggests, making landfall in Cuba west of the current
location - but all still within that cone of uncertainty. But I'm basing
my thinking on very sparse pressure data so I could be in la-la land
(how would you know the difference anyway, huh? ;) )

Winds are now estimated to be about 85 mph, central pressure 979 mb,
making her a mid-sized cat 1 (cat 1: 74-95mph). It looks like a clear
eye is struggling to form and the center of circulation is easy to spot.
The satellite data for the winds is not yet accessible (to me), so I'll
go along with the NHC's official wind speed. I did have a look at the
wind speed recorded on two buoys in that part of the Caribbean. Neither
are very close to the center but the highest gusts currently being
recorded are 27 mph. Also, convection has decreased since earlier this
morning, which could just be a diurnal variation or it could be that
she's not intensifying any further - too soon to tell (most likely a
diurnal variation). The models that were predicting a Major Hurricane
(cat 3 or higher) at landfall on Cuba have now backed off a bit and are
saying she'll be a cat 2.

Maybe she will get to become a cat 2, we'll see... but conditions are
already changing: the surface water temperatures underneath are a little
cooler - 27-28 deg C mostly, with small patches of 29 deg C and 25-26
deg C. She's also crossed the deepest warm water (upper 125m 26 deg C or
higher) - although it's still pretty deep with the upper 80-100m greater
than 26 deg C. Also, wind shear is beginning to pick up slowly. It now
ranges from 11mph in the south to 35 mph in the northern part of the
storm, and it will continue to increase as she moves northwards today
and tomorrow.

More later gators (and noles and all other sports people... ;) )
J.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma: November 6 Update B

Quick update:

She's been slowly intensifying all day, and now has winds of just below
65 mph (TS: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 994 mb, making her a
mid-strong TS. There's still nothing that will inhibit her
intensification, so she'll be a hurricane by tomorrow. No clear eye yet,
but it's easy to see the center of circulation - which now extends up to
the middle of the troposphere (lowest part of our atmosphere). Signs of
circulation are now also beginning to emerge in the upper levels as well
- which is an indication that this could be a strong storm.

The center was shifted eastward after a hurricane hunter plane went into
the system, and it is now at 16.3N, 81.1W, She'd moving more-or-less
northward at 8mph, and because she's picked up speed it looks like
she'll pass v. close to/over the Caymans tomorrow evening as a
hurricane, with landfall in Cuba now moved up to the middle of the day
on Sunday. Wind shear is not expected to increase until some time over
the weekend, giving her plenty of time to increase in intensity.

By the way, it's still Hurricane Season (for those who conveniently
forgot, or wishfully thought it ended at the beginning of November
;))... this storm is still within the 97% of all tropical storm activity
time frame.

More tomorrow (unless something dramatic happens tonight).
Byeeeeee,
J.

TS Paloma: November 6 Update A

I know, it's difficult to imagine there's a Tropical Storm out there,
when here in Tropical Florida it is a chilly ~75 deg F... brrr... get
those woolly mittens out! ;)

TS Paloma was officially named in the middle of the night. She's now
moving NNW at 7mph, which means she's easily going to remain over water
and is currently centered at about 15.3N, 82.2W. Officially, winds are
40mph (TS: 39- 73 mph), but I expect that to increase during the day
today to at least 45-50mph - still a weak system. Central pressure is
1000mb. Another plane is scheduled to go into the system this
afternoon. Despite the weak winds, there are patches of strong
convection - mostly over water (including the Caymans and Jamaica).

Surface water temperatures are 28-30 deg C and soon she'll be moving
over waters that are over 26 deg C in the upper 100m of the water
column... this will keep her well fed and happy. From an atmospheric
point of view, vertical wind shear is now quite low and looks like it
will remain low for the next day or two. So really, there isn't much to
inhibit her intensification in the next 48 hours and I agree with the
NHC forecast. There's a very good chance she'll become a borderline
TS/weak hurricane as she approaches the Cayman Islands.

Interestingly the most reliable models diverge completely in terms of
intensification after ~two day: some say she will undergo rapid
intensification and continue on towards Cuba as an-almost major/major
(cat 3 or higher) storm, and others think that the wind shear will
increase which will decimate the system in the Caribbean. So the choices
for Cuba are - BIG storm or NO storm... (anyone looking for ideas for a
reality tv/game show?). You can see why it's tricky basing forecasts on
models sometimes. We'll know by Sat. which group is correct. I fall
somewhere in between the two, which is the tactic I think the NHS is
taking as well (but for different reasons).

The forecast track takes the center of the cone just left of the
Caymans, and then curves NE towards the center of Cuba and across to the
southern Bahamas. This might be a little too far right... currently it
looks like there's a chance it will pass north of the center of Cuba and
towards the northern Bahamas (if she survives). But again, that's 3-4
days away so things could change. (Folks in southern Florida should also
just keep a small eye on this system).

<Soapbox alert> Intensity forecasting is a very tricky thing (as it's
based on the track of a storm)... but you may be interested to know I
heard a talk last week that showed some improvement in a hurricane
intensity model - something that would help the NHC at least. I asked
why it wasn't being used as an 'experimental tool' by the NHC. I was
surprised to find out that it is very difficult for anyone outside of
NOAA (NHC is part of NOAA) to get something like that to people in NOAA
(and equally frustrating for people in NOAA who would very much like to
work with people outside NOAA). Now, you would think that for something
like hurricane forecasting where lives are at stake and beaucoup $ are
involved, they would at least make it easy to work together for a common
goal, right? My (very limited) understanding is that it's some sort of
an institutional block, not a person-to-person block. Since then I've
heard the same thing from a number of other people. But, the bottom line
that I wanted to let you know is that there are improvements being made
in hurricane models... they just may take years to emerge from the
dungeons. I hope you can wait. <end Soapbox alert>.

I'll send out another update later.

Toodle pip,
J.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

TD 17: November 5 Update B

No surprises here ... data from the plane showed that the blobette is, indeed, a Tropical Depression with low-level circulation and convection.

It's quite disorganized so I can't see a clear center and I'll go with the official one from the NHC which has it currently at about 14N, 81.8W. It is heading NW at 5mph and is still SE of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The forecast calls for it to become a TS tonight/tomorrow. Currently winds are at 30mph (central pressure 1004mb), and as TS winds are from 39-73mph, that's not too much of a stretch. Satellite winds are already showing wind speeds of 40-45mph.

As it's on that southwestern side of a high pressure system (remember, in the Northern Hemisphere things move clockwise around a high), it will soon curve to the North and then eventually to the NE. The question really is where will that northward turn occur... will it get closer to land, which will help to keep it's intensity down, or will it remain over warm waters and head towards Cuba. The forecast track takes it very close to that corner before curving out tomorrow. I don't have high enough resolution pressure fields to be able to make that call, so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. And of course, what happens beyond Cuba ... well, talking rabbits would have as good an answer as anyone else to that at the moment. ;)

Given the uncertainty in the track, there is large uncertainty in the intensity. Some of the models forecast it to become a Major Hurricane (cat 3 or higher) before landfall in Cuba in about 5 days (because apparently Cuba hasn't had enough of those this year). It's way too soon for me to tell - both the track and intensity - although as I've said before the GFDL model has been doing rather well on the track this year.

I will say it has some pretty strong convection at the moment - mostly over water.

I'll be watching it tomorrow of course - the first thing to look for is how close it gets to that Nicaragua/Honduras border/land area before turning north. Then we'll have a clearer idea. Hopefully.

So... I got *quite* a few responses to my earlier message, like: "You is determinated to edumacate us wit bigest words!!!!!" ;) (sorry I not had time to write back to you all)... You like 'caudicty' huh? I do too so I thought I'd try and save it from the brink of extinction... http://www.waywordradio.org/darwinism-and-the-dictionary-minicast/ (thanks to BM for sending it to me).

Until tomorrow amigos...

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ ------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------

The Blobette: November 5 Update A

At this time, in the caducity of the hurricane season, there is another
blobette out there. It's in the Caribbean, off the coast of
Nicaragua/Honduras. There is some low-level rotation, but not much in
the middle or upper troposphere. There is also some convection. Surface
water temperatures there are currently ~28 deg C, so still warm enough
for some development. But it's just a blob at the moment, not even
officially a Tropical Depression (although I think it should be), so
we'll all just keep one eye on it. It's on the south-western edge of a
high pressure system, so there's a chance it will move over land in
central America, but there's also a chance that it will curve over water
and towards Cuba, allowing it to intensify some more. The next name on
the list (in case we need it) is Paloma. They'll send in a plane to
investigate later today if needed.

And yes, of course I've been biding my time for an opportunity to use
'caducity'. It's so obliging of Mother Nature to have a Blobette in
November. :)

More, but only if this develops.
Ciao,
J.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

TS Omar: October 17 Update B

I can't help it. I have to say this... there's absolutely NO WAY the storm
I saw in the satellite images at about 4pm this afternoon turned into a
hurricane by 5pm, as said in the advisory issued by the NHC. And if it
did, it miraculously rapidly deteriorated again because it's back to being
a Tropical Storm now (max 65 mph winds)... and all done without changing
the estimated central pressure or gaining any convection/rain. Amazing.

You know it's not really forecasting if you write 'ALTHOUGH OMAR HAS
REGAINED CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH...THIS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED" if you already know it's not a hurricane...of course it's
going to be short-lived!

And we were in such good agreement with this system until then (relatively
speaking). Oh well.

As I'm here, a quick update - he's weaker, at 32N, 52.5W, and has even
less convection than before. He still has some circulation so if you put
him in some corn fields he wouldn't water them for you, but you could get
some very nice crop circles...

Right, this time I really won't check what's going on... well not until
tomorrow anyway ;)

Friday, October 17, 2008

TS Omar: October 17 Update A

Our friend Omar is still holding on as a tropical storm. Earlier today
the NHC said he had intensified and had winds of 70mph (TS: 39-73mph),
central pressure 987mb, but in the last few hours it looks like he's
fallen apart again. There are light clouds but no rainfall anywhere near
his center, and very little rain elsewhere in the system. He still has
good circulation so it's easy to see his center on a satellite image,
which is currently located at about 30.5N, 54W. Water temperatures
underneath are much cooler now, around 25-26 deg C, and there is
considerable southwesterly wind shear (from the southwest), so I don't
see him intensifying up to a hurricane really. He's moving NE at
35mph. All is well.

If he does something wonky like... er... making a u-turn, I'll send out
another update. Otherwise I might not bother tomorrow. It's the weekend.
I have wine to drink. And music to listen to - free Florida Orchestra
Concert in the Park in St. Pete for those of you who aren't watching the
Tampa Rays vs. Boston Red Sox. Game. Oh, and of course... Go Rays! (I do
like their beautiful dark blue colors :)).

Toodle-oo :)
J.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Tropical Storm Omar: October 16 Update C

As expected, he's been downgraded to a TS in the 11pm advisory - although
they say he probably became a TS a few hours earlier. Winds are near
70mph, central pressure estimated to be 987mb. I'll go along with that cos
I'm feeling lazy :) Current location near 24N, 58W, he's moving along at a
fast 25 mph in a NE direction into the Atlantic... that's right mister,
you better be running away. He's not looking very tropical at all now.

More tomorrow...
J.

Hurricane Omar: October 16 Update B

It's a sunnier day today. After running through the Anegada Passage (the
water between the VIs and the northern leeward islands) as a cat 3, Omar
is now falling apart very quickly in the Atlantic because of the
combined effects of wind shear and that front, which has dry air behind
it that is being entrained into the system. He is currently centered at
20.2N, 61.3W - easy to see as there is very little convection near his
center of circulation because it's been pushed north and east.
Officially winds are near 85 mph (central pressure 980mb) which makes
him a mid-sized cat 1 (range: 74-95mph). I wouldn't be too surprised if
he's a Tropical Storm by the end of the day. Convection has decreased
overall.

I got this early this morning from St. Thomas:
"We got what we hoped for and we were prepared for the
worst!..........center was indeed well east of St. Croix. We have power
and internet and winds were probably 40-45 tops...piece of cake for St.
Thomas. thanks for all of the great meterological support and
communication interaction, it is nice to have your own private
meterologist."

Aww thanks. :) No worries. Let's hope we don't have to communicate about
storms any more this year (at least).

And also from our reporter on St. Thomas re St. Criox, which was
probably the closest to the eye of all the islands:
"St. Croix....Reports are that a few trees were down, no structural
damage to buildings, and some power lines down. They must have been very
surprised that the center missed them. The big question is how did St.
Martin, Barbuda, Anguilla and St. Barts fare?"

And from the research vessel out there, yesterday they had 12 feet
swells - and that's when they were heading north of Bermuda, before
heading south... I got this yesterday afternoon:
"Still lumpy as prison porridge out here. Still about 4 hours from the
first station, CTD down to 3000m then we head south and a much
comfortable ride. The ship is the RV Atlantic Explorer. It's about 19
miles long and 3 miles wide. A more realistic figure ~160 feet long and
35 feet fat. Dinner was nice. There is another Aussie on this cruise. he
started to eat lunch, turned pale and ran from the galley."

Aah... the adventures of sea-travel. I think those swells were probably
from the front instead of the storm. A CTD is a
Conductivity-Temperature-Depth sensor - it measures the water salinity
and temperature (in case you couldn't tell that part from the name) at
various water depths.

And from the ship today:
"We're at the BATS site now and heading more or less in a straight line
to PR. We're going to duck across to the PR trench and do a deep deep
cast... The seas are behind us now so a pleasant ride. Actually we're
starting to look good for the cruise. Few white caps and a swell 4-5ft
with a pretty long period b/w swell."

(The BATS site doesn't stand for 'location where the bats accumulate',
but for the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Station, which is in the
Atlantic near 31N, 64W).

So it looks like they'll be o.k. Luckily for that Aussie.

Until the next update later,
Ciao
J.

Hurricane Omar: October 16 Update A

Quick update: Omar's eye has just passed clearly east of St. Croix and
looks like it won't hit any of the islands as it is now moving west of the
northern leeward islands. This is the best scenario we could have hoped
for with the strongest winds avoiding land. The VIs remain on the western
side of the storm. The NHC upgraded him to a weak Cat 3 (range: 111-130
mph) in the 11pm advisory, with winds of 115 mph and a central pressure of
967mb. Hurricane force winds of 74 mph or higher extend out 35 miles from
the center. Convection is still strong. He's zooming along in a NE
direction at 20mph now and will be in the Atlantic in about 2-3 hours.

Until tomorrow (or rather later today)... really this time.
J.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Hurricane Omar: October 15 Update B

The storm is now beginnig to cover the VIs. The strongest part of the
convection (thunderstorms, tornadoes etc) has reached the eastern PR, the
US VIs, the British VIs and Anguilla... but the center has not yet reached
the islands - a few more hours to go. The center of circulation is around
17N, 65W.

He's now a cat 2 with winds of ~105 mph (wind range: 96-110mph), central
pressure 971 mb. That's at ground level. So at higher altitidues on these
islands, they are looking at higher winds.

There are two little (very little) bright spots in this:
1. He has picked up forward speed to 17mph because he is moving between
that low pressure front on his left, moving him counterclockwise, and a
high pressure to his right, moving him clockwise (draw that on a piece of
paper and you'll see the two factors).
2. Hurricane force winds are still confined to about 15 miles from the
eye. The eye looks like it'll pass close to St. Croix, but there's still a
chance it could pass between the islands - it's too close for me to
assess.

Not much more to say today. If I hear anything from the islands I'll send
it out in another email because I know a number of family and friends are
checking in. Let's see how things are tomorrow.

Night night,
J.

Hurricane Omar and TD 16: October 16 Update A

Hurricane Omar:

He's a little stronger cat 1 this morning with winds near 80mph (cat 1:
74-95mph), central pressure 984mb. The center of circulation is near
14.9N, 67.5W and he's officially heading NE at 7mph.

The forecast is not looking pretty for the US Virgin Islands at the
moment I'm afraid. The center of the cone track currently takes the eye
directly over St. Criox as a very strong cat 1/weak cat 2 storm.
However, there's a battle raging in the atmosphere regarding his track
between the front and the storm, with the front trying to push eastward
and the storm trying to move northward - hence it's northeast motion.
Who is stronger? Normally I would say that within 24 hours of landfall
the forecast track is good, but in this case given the complication of
the front, the eye could still pass west or east of St. Criox and I
would really not focus on that center of the cone track but keep an eye
(pun :)) on the entire cone which extends from the eastern tip of PR to
the British VIs at least.

The latest report I have from in St. Thomas:
"I will try to stay in touch as long as the power holds up and I do not
fold up from the preparation exhaustion. At 4am I can report that there
has been no rain during the night as the outermost bands are on us. The
NHC has not altered the track of Omar since 5 pm on the
14th...........looks like the center should hit St. Croix and head into
the Atlantic thru the Anegada passage, which is threading the needle.
Anywhere the eye or center hits will most likely be devastated as all of
the islands have height and the winds have erratic effect as they climb
the hills. We will not even discuss the tournados twirling throughout
the entire storm. The ground is so saturated that the wind with this
hurricane will take down a lot of trees. . . in 1995 hurricane Marylyn
did a direct hit on St Thomas and approached with winds barely above
Tropical storm status and we were devasted to the point of the island
looking like a nuclear bomb had gone off, not a leaf on a tree. From a
seasoned (not brave, I am here because I cannot run and believe me, I
would) storm participant my motto is HOPE FOR THE BEST ....PREPARE FOR
THE WORST........(time and weather permitting)."

I think you all know that the higher you are in a storm, the stronger
the winds. As our reporter said, all the islands are mountainous, so
although the winds at the surface are 80mph, making it a cat 1, even if
this storm doesn't intensify further that could still translate to cat 2
winds at altitude. Hurricane force winds extend out 15 miles from the
center still, but the strong convection continues over a much larger
area, as do the tropical storm force winds.

I'll send out another update later on Hurricane Omar.

TD16:
This is still a struggling system, although it continues to dump lots of
rain over central America. It's moving west at 3mph, winds are near
30mph, central presure 1005mb, and the center is somewhere around 16N,
84.2W - just just on the northern edge of Honduras. Actually, the center
could be over land, it's difficult to tell because it is such a
disorganized system. No convection near the center, so they are keeping
it as a TD. It will continue to skirt the northern edge of Honduras as
it moves westward. The rain may cause mudslides. The wind is not too
much, so that won't be the damaging factor here.

Unless this develops, I won't send out another update on this system.

Later then,
J.

Hurricane Omar and TD16: October 14 Update B

Hurricane Omar:
He continued to intensify this afternoon and evening, and with little wind
shear it was indeed a 'little' faster than the official forecast this
morning. At the 11pm advisory he was upgraded to a hurricane. I agree with
this upgrade.

Currently his eye is at 14.3N, 68.1W and is moving NE at 6mph. The eye is
expected to reach the islands on Wednesday night. Officially the maximum
sustained winds are near 75mph (central pressure 979mb), extending out 15
miles from the eye, so he's a very weak cat 1 at the moment (cat 1 range:
74-95 mph). I think he might be a little stronger than that now, but not
a cat 2. The eye, although present, is not very clear.

Even though the wind is not as strong as it could be, the convection is
really strong with this storm – we're talking torrential rain, strong
thunderstorms and all the bells and whistles that come along with that. At
the moment the worst of this activity is over water, but the islands have
had some rain. I got this report from St. Thomas this evening:

"Am waiting for the 8pm from NHC and it is POURING HERE AND NO
ELECTRCITY…par for STT . . . Still a lot of prep to do as our brains do
not want to believe this storm is coming..........bye for now due to no
power."

The front coming down from the north is now over Hispaniola… I'm not sure
how much farther south and east it will dig. The area of strong convection
is fairly broad and should reach Puerto Rico and the VIs in a few hours –
it'll be a very soggy and er.. breezy... ride for that entire area
regardless of exactly where the eye passes.

TD 16:
Although there is still some circulation, convection remains disorganized.
This blobette is struggling against the combined effects of interactions
with land and having the moist air dragged away eastwards along that same
front, towards Omar (helping Omar). Nicaragua has had quite a lot of rain
from this system though, and Honduras, Belize and Mexico look like they've
had some intermittent heavy rain showers. Given how disorganized the
convection is and the factors working against it, it may not make TS
status – although the NHC are saying that if it stays over water then it
may become a TS tomorrow. We'll see how things develop tomorrow.

The center is currently at around 16.2N, 83.8W and it's moving NW at 6mph.
Winds are near 30mph, central pressure 1005mb. Track is still the
Honduras/Belize area.

And look what the NHC posted about keeping this as a TD for now: "THE
SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT…"

I'm happy someone else thinks storms need to have strong convection near
the center as well as the strong winds. I hope they remember this tomorrow
if they decide to upgrade to TS. Can we downgrade old storms retroactively
I wonder. I know they can upgrade retroactively.

Well my friends, that's it for today. Tomorrow should be interesting I
suppose. For those in the VIs and surrounding islands, STAY SAFE (although
you won't be reading this if you don't have power!). And for those going
on the cruise tomorrow, STAY SAFE as well. Let me know what you encounter.

Ciao,
J.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

TS Omar and TD16: October 14 Update A

TS Omar:
As we all expected, he's now a Tropical Storm (and actually looks like
one :) ). The wind shear is decreasing, and the strong convective
activity seems to be centered closer to the center of circulation now,
at around 13.8N, 68.9W. Central pressure is 989mb, and wind speeds are
near 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph) - this is all information from a plane
that is currently in the system and hasn't finished investigating. I
would not be surprised if he's just a bit stronger than that - the
convection is really strong. I don't think he's a hurricane yet though,
because I don't see any hint of an eye. He's currently lumbering along
at 5mph in a Southeast direction.

The forecast still calls for him to head Northeast, just a little later
than previously expected. Later today they expect him to make an
eastward turn, then a northeastward turn. This will take him east of PR
and the VIs. The intensity forecast still says he'll be a hurricane by
Thursday morning shortly after exiting the Caribbean into the Atlantic.
In general I'd agree with his intensification, but the timing is
difficult to assess. It depends on the wind shear. Water temperatures
are still warm enough to help him along - 29-31 deg C - and there's very
little interaction with land.

I still don't have good wind information or pressure field information,
so I'll just use what I have - the satellite imagery and my crystal
ball, and for good measure I'll toss a coin every once in a while. :)

That low pressure front I mentioned yesterday is now passing over the
southern Bahamas and still heading south, so it may remain intact as it
gets into the Caribbean after all. The track depends on where he'll be
when the front gets to him and carries him off - given that the front is
still well defined, the forecast track shift eastward seems reasonable.
As you may remember, in the northern hemisphere storms (and winds) move
clockwise around high pressure systems, and counter-clockwise around
lows... which would be indicated by his east and then northeast forecast
motion.

Update from St. Thomas: " having the center east of us is far better
wind wise than being in the northeast quadrant with bulk of winds west
of us as it passes...........looks like PR will be spared as
well..........the winds are great for cleaning out cobwebs but leave
spidy alone now!"

And for you guys in Bermuda about to embark on the research cruise - if
you could just stay behind the low front, you'll be more or less o.k....
it'll still be windy though. At least you won't gain any weight. ;)

TD 16:
Meanwhile on the other side of the Caribbean ... the blobette in the
western Caribbean is trying to look fierce. But it is very close to
Honduras so it's not very likely to develop into anything more than a
Tropical Storm. The circulation is good, and is centered at 15.6N,
83.2W, and it's heading WNW at 5mph. Winds are near 30mph, central
pressure 1005mb. However, the convection is not as strong as Omar's
despite it being over warmer water temperatures of 30-32 deg C - it's
interacting with land. They are sending in a plane to investigate this
system later today. Satellite winds look like they are about 46 mph, so
I think it's already strong enough to be a Tropical Storm (Paloma is the
next one).

The track takes it generally westward, along the northern coast of
Honduras and into Belize. There's a chance it could make landfall in
Honduras. In either case, this will be more of a rain event than a wind
event. Hopefully not a great rain event either as that can be a mudslide
prone area.

More later,
J.

Monday, October 13, 2008

TD 15 and other Blobs and Blobettes: October 13 Update B

Things no-one expects:
1. The Spanish Inquisition (Monty Python)
2. Jar-Jar Binks (Star Wars/George Lucas)
3. A Tampa Bay pro-baseball team in the play-offs against the Boston Red Sox
4. FOUR blobs and blobettes to pop up in about 24 hours in October when
the hurricane season is, supposedly, in the home stretch.

Fortunately, we are done with blobette Nana. There is another little blob
just to her south, way out there in the Atlantic, but that doesn't look
like it will amount to much either. There is not much circulation, and the
convection is disorganized. So those two I will ignore. Just like that.
Poof. Gone. I wish.

That leaves the Caribbean. My my, what a year they've had. And now they
have TD15 in the eastern Caribbean, and so no-one is left out, a blobette
in the western Caribbean. Of the two, TD15 has the leading edge in terms
of organization (barely).

TD15:
A plane was just in that system and has not yet found tropical storm force
winds, so the NHC are keeping it as a TD. However, TS watches etc have
been posted on the islands and I expect it to become TS Omar tomorrow. In
this, I'm in agreement with the NHC. There is a lot of rain and
thunderstorm activity in this system, predominantly to the east and north
of the center of circulation. The center is stationary at 14.6N, 69.4W.
Winds are still near 35 mph, central pressure has dropped to 1001mb.

As you know from previous storm updates (e.g. Fay), stationary system
tracks are (in my humble opinion) a little trickier than moving storms,
because as the storm sits still, the pressure fields around it continue to
evolve. And, of course the intensity depends on the track. The current
forecast center of cone track takes this system right over Puerto Rico on
Weds. evening as a Tropical Storm, and then makes it a hurricane in the
Atlantic by Thursday.

My data access problems continue. Alas, the wind information is still not
available because they are switching to a new processing machine. Bad
timing indeed.

However, we can look out for certain signs. At the moment the center of
circulation is removed from the main convection because of westerly wind
shear. If those two begin to coalesce before it moves much, then there's a
chance it will become stronger than a TS because wind shear will be
reduced, and it will have plenty of warm water to move over. On the other
hand, if the storm remains disorganized and stays where it is then it will
cool the waters underneath and may weaken a tad.

As for the track, I still don't have good enough information on that
either – at least not from the pressure fields. But we can look for signs
in other places. If you look at the satellite water vapor movie, you'll
see that a low-pressure front moved over central Florida today (and very
nice and cooling it was too) and is indicated by the dry/moist air. I
think the model tracks expect that to move south and 'pick up' the storm –
hence the forecast north-east motion tomorrow and on Wednesday. If the
storm stays stationary, there's a good chance that it won't interact with
the front as previously forecast. At the moment (to me anyway) it doesn't
look like the front will get south enough to meet this stationary little
storm, so I'm not as sure about this NE turn towards PR/VIs. But you can
all keep an eye on that interaction. Tricky. Stationary storms. Very
tricky.

(To see satellite info, instructions are in the satellite image primers:
part one in here
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-edouard-august-4-update-b.html.
and part two in here
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-edouard-august-5-update.html)

I got this note from our reporter on the ground in St. Thomas earlier today:
"We got plenty of rain here yesterday from this TD system....starting at
around a six pack and a half of Coronas (translated that is around 5:30pm)
and continuing into the night.......heavy rain. I cannot believe that this
darned thing is now going to come back at us from the southwest and travel
northeast and be a hurricane.........now I have to scramble to get
ready......."

And speaking of signs, here's one… I got this from our reporter on Bermuda:
"Hiho, we sail to Puerto Rican on Wed. A seven day cruise. Should I make
my will out or will I be safe?"

Oh dear. I suppose that research cruise during Hurricane Bertha was just
too easy...

Western Caribbean Blob:
There's some circulation and some convection, but not as much as in TD15.
Central America: Expect Rain. Actually, almost the entire Caribbean can
expect clouds and rain from one system or t'other this week. I've blabbed
on about blobs enough for now, so I'll write about this tomorrow.

Night night,
J.

Tropical Depressions Nana and 15: October 13 Update A

TD Nana:

As expected, in the wee small hours of the morning she was downgraded to a
Tropical Depression (by the 5am advisory in fact).

In the good old days, unless there happened to be a ship out there, it's
quite likely that she wouldn't even have been noticed. A question I get
asked quite often is how do we know about old storms before we had
satellites or planes? The official records date back to 1851, and are
based on anecdotal information - if there was a ship that got caught in
one (and survived) or if one made landfall in an inhabited place etc. So
obviously the further back in time we go the less certain we are of the
total number of storms in any given year or their tracks or intensities.
This makes it very tricky when we talk of long term trends in hurricanes -
the data doesn't stretch back reliably far enough.

In 1933 for example (pre satellites and pre-planes), the records show
there were 21 named storms in the Atlantic! I bet they were thinking that
the sky was falling... at least the global economy was solid back then
though... er... hmmm...hang on a second... ;)

Back to Nana... she's not got much convection, circulation is easy to see
in the satellite images because she's relatively cloud free, winds are
around 35 mph, and she's moving WNWish at around 8mph around a High
pressure system in the Atlantic, which is where she'll stay. Wind shear is
still strong.

Unless she decides to pull a fast one, this is my last entry on this system.

TD 15:

The Blob that was in the eastern Caribbean has now officially become TD
15. A plane is being sent into the system to investigate. I applaud the
forecaster for making the leap instead of waiting for reconnaisance plane
information. Bravo.

The center is at around 14.8N, 69.6W, and it's moving NW at a rapid (!!)
2mph. As I can stagger (under the influence of alcohol) faster than that,
I would call that pretty much stationary. Central pressure is 1005mb,
winds near 35mph (same as Nana at this point in time).

The forecast calls for this to be a hurricane in a couple of days, and
heading towards the PR - Virgin Islands area on Weds and then out into the
Atlantic. It looks like there are some strong thunderstorms passing
through that area already. Water temperatures are warm enough to sustain
this storm and there's not much dry air, so the inhibiting factor will be
the wind shear.

There is some wind shear from the south west and the convective activity
is, indeed, east and north-east of the center so this is not a very well
organized system yet. Alas, there seems to be a glitch and the full suite
of wind information has not been posted since yesterday - at least not in
the places I usually look. And a double whammy... I don't have high
resolution pressure fields to assess the track either. Bother. Bother.
Bother.

I'll try and find out what's going on (maybe they've finally cut me off?
;) ) and send out another update later.
J.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

TS Nana & The Blob: October 12 Update A

TS Nana:

Hey, guess what...there's another one of those little blobettes out there
in the Atlantic. Yes, one of those "shouldn't really be a named system but
we'll give it one anyway because we've still got about half the alphabet
claiming unemployment". :)

The NHC issued their first advisory on TS Nana at 5pm this afternoon and
they forecast that she'll be downgraded to a Tropical Depression later
tonight. Still, it gives them something to do for the next few hours I
suppose.

The center of circulation is clearly visible because there are only very
light clouds in the area. It is at around 16.5N, 38.5W with winds near
40mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and a central pressure of about 1005mb. There
is some convection, but because of strong westerly (from the west) wind
shear the convection is east of the circulation, near 16.5N, 36W - that's
about 150 miles from the center of circulation! She's moving WNW at 7mph
and looks like she'll stay out in the Atlantic.

With the convection removed from the storm center, I don't think she
should have been named a TS. I think I mentioned this before - in addition
to vorticity (circulation) a tropical system should have convection close
to the center as well.

Water temperatures are warm enough (27-29 deg C) for her to develop, if
the wind shear decreases. But the forecast wind shear is supposed to
continue as it is for the next couple of days.

The Blob:
There's also a Blob in the Caribbean. Convection is pretty good with this
system, and although there is some circulation, it isn't very well defined
at the moment. It looks like PR/VIs etc might have got some rain today...
(and I hear there was an earthquake in that area as well yesterday?).
Water temps are 28-30 deg C. I'll write more on this if it develops
further.

By the way, the next few names are: Omar, Paloma and Rene. That should
cover us up to the 'pre-season forecast' number that someone is
desperately trying to get to I think.

More tomorrow.
Pip-pip... :)
J.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Tropical Storm Marco: October 7 Update A

Blink and you'll miss him. I know size isn't everything, but boy is he
small! Even the NHC took an alliterative turn yesterday and called him
Miniature Marco. They estimate tropical storm force winds extend out a
maximum whopping 15 miles from his center (if that).

There's very little circulation and not much in the way of strong
thunderstorm activity, making him more of a blob right now than a
tropical storm. I'm not even sure that Mexico will get much rain from
this system, even though he just made landfall and his center is inland
at 19.9N, 96.6W. The NHC currently have the wind speed at 65mph (998mb
central pressure), so according to them he is a mid-intensity TS (TS
range: 39-73 mph), but I think that's an overestimate. I don't see winds
higher than 50 mph. He's moving W at 8mph over land and will continue to
weaken as he goes.

Not much more to say about Marco really. He had a short innings and
tried to put up a good show. Speaking of innings and shows (*very*
subtle segue way huh? ;) )... "Go Rays" (I have to say that otherwise
I'll get thrown out of St. Pete, and besides, their stadium is a 10 min
bike ride from here).

As he's over land, this is my last entry on cute little Marco.
Ciao,
J.

Monday, October 06, 2008

Tropical Depression 13: October 6 Update A

I know, you probably have other things on your mind today. Like money.
The election. Why the world is round. Where did the Dolphins really go
when they left Earth (Hitchikers Guide To The Galaxy). And other such
pressing issues of the day.

But just in case you run out of things to chat about, TD 13 formed from
a blob of clouds and stuff (technical term ;)) over the Bay of Campeche
earlier today and is at 19.2N, 94.4W. This blob is moving WNW near
10mph. Winds at the 1pm advisory were near 35 mph, central pressure
about 1007mb. A plane is investigating this at the moment. From the
satellite images, it looks like a Tropical Storm to me. A itsy bitsy one
though. There is some circulation and convection and water temperatures
are around 27-29 deg C down. Satellite winds look like they are about 40
mph.

So if the NHC agree, this will be TS Marco... going towards Mexico. I
think we'll agree with this one, as they also have it forecast to become
a TS before landfall. (Yes, I do agree with them sometimes you know ;) ).

I'll send out another update tomorrow, unless there's some "Breaking
News"... I can't remember the last time we had anything dramatic going
on though.
J.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Tropical Storm Laura: September 30 Update A

I disagree. There, got that out of the way right at the beginning. :)

Once upon a time, they used to say that a Tropical Storm had to have the
most convection near it's center versus at some distance from the center
... I wonder when that idea dropped off the radar? (puns always intended).
Maybe that was in the old days when we didn't have the same technology we
have today. You know, ye olde days... back when the Ipod was first
invented.

Actually, I think having some convection in the first place was a good
indication of stormy weather. But that's just me. Apparently clouds and
light drizzle with blustery winds are enough for some.

Laura got moved from being a Subtropical to a Tropical Storm today,
despite moving northwards over increasingly cooler waters of 24-25 deg C,
and she is about to jump to being Extratropical soon apparently. She has
very little convection and is basically a swirling mass of air centered at
about 42.3N, 48.5W and heading N at 14 mph. Maximum winds are near 60mph
(central pressure 996mb), making her a medium-sized windy storm.

She's staying out in the Atlantic and unless something beyond belief
happens in the next 24 hours (like we lose $1.2 quadrillion or something)
this will be my last entry on "Subtropical Storm Laura".

Toodles,
J.

P.S. In the US a Quadrillion is a thousand trillion (not to be confused
with a quadrillion in the UK/rest of the world). You never know when that
will come in handy.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Subtropical Storm Laura: September 29 Update A

Before Laura, here's a report from our Halifax re "Hurricane" Kyle from yesterday:
"Blustery winds and some rain in Halifax. Much more west of here. We'll head that way today and have a look."

The blobette turned into Subtropical Storm Laura - a compromise between a TS and an Extratropical Storm. It's only since 2002 that subtropical storms were given names from the hurricane name list - which would partly account for why we have had more named storms in the past few years.

At least once a year I get asked what the difference is between Tropical Storms, Subtropical Storms and Extratropical Storms. For those who want to know, I cut and pasted an explanation from previous years below (so at least it looks like I've been very diligent and wrote a lot for this entry ;) ).

She's centered at 37.2N, 47.3W, in the central North Atlantic and she's moving WNW at 8mph. Maximum winds are near 60mph, making her a mid-sized storm (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 993 mb. This WNW motion means she is (and will remain) over cooler waters of 25-26 deg C. She's moving around a high pressure system that is over the eastern Atlantic, so I agree with the official forecast track - she'll move WNW for a while, then N, then NNE etc. A pattern we see with all storms. There is pretty good circulation and a bit of convection, but most of it is just clouds, not to much in the way of thunderstorms (or even rain). The clouds are wrapping around the center, but are not near it - she looks like a big comma at the moment.

A quick overview of storm systems (from http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2007/06/official-start-of-hurricane-season-june.html):
An Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (quelle suprise!) and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also called low pressure systems.They are usually associated with fronts which are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front) or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

A Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics (aren't we good at naming things?) and have warm air at their core. The energy source for these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air. As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although 'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a tropical depression.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both extratropical and tropical systems. For example, imagine an extratropical storm moving over warmer water. Now the storm begins to get some energy from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a subtropical depression. Subtropical Storm Laura was formed from an extratropical low pressure system/front.

I'll try and send out another update tomorrow... but I can't guarantee it. :)
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ ------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Kyle and the Blobette: September 28 Update B

TS Kyle:

Finally, I agree with the NHC. Phew!

In the 11pm advisory, they downgraded Kyle to a Tropical Storm, despite
him having had very little convection for most of the day. In fact, he's
not actually a tropical storm, but an extratropical storm (and should have
been classified as such a while ago). The NHC also say he is not a
tropical cyclone anymore so the 11pm was their last advisory on this
system.

Winds are still in the tropical storm range, estimated to be near 70mph,
and central pressure is 986mb. He is located near 44.8N, 65.9W and is
heading generally N at 26 mph, and will get to New Brunswick in about 2-3
hours.

This is most likely my last update on this system. One in which I very
much disagreed with the official word (in case you hadn't cottoned on by
now) but that's o.k. (other than we have one extra "hurricane" this season
when we shouldn't have - but who pays attention to numbers regarding
seasonal activity anyway, huh?).

The Blobette:
And in keeping with the effort to make sure we have the right number of
storms and hurricanes that were predicted at the start of the season,
Mother Nature is teasing us with another blobette out there (and I suspect
I may be disagreeing with the NHC again soon).

So here we go... For a start, this one is not even a tropical system! as
they so nicely point out in the NHC write-up:
"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN"

This blobette is somewhere around 37N, 46W and is over water temperatures
(25-27 deg C). It has got some rotation, but not much convection right
now. This one is moving westward, and I will concede that it could
develop if it moves southward over warmer waters - in fact, any real
convection in this system is on the southern side where the water is a
little warmer. The current projected path is W or WNW - both of which keep
it over this temperature water or cooler. So, if this does develop, then
it is developing primarily because of atmospheric dynamics, not because of
the underlying ocean effects. It could be an extratropical storm - which
can also have rotation like we see with this system. And, believe it or
not, convection also develops in the extratropics where water temperatures
are cooler. I know. I grew up in the UK. Rain is our normal summertime
weather. And wintertime weather (although for some variety we get snow
then as well) ;).

That's all for today. More fun and games from the extratropics tomorrow...
at this rate I'm going to have to change the name of my blog!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Hurricane Kyle: September 28 Update A

I heard from an intrepid reporter currently in the Halifax, Canada area
and heading towards New Brunswick. Just like Kyle. Oops.

The theme for this storm is: half-baked. He has no convection in the
southern half of the system, it's all to the north and it has decreased in
the last few hours (although there is still some thundery activity there).
I can't quite determine where the center of circulation is because he's
not very well formed at all, due to *very* strong wind shear. The NHC have
it at 40.4N, 67.7W, heading NNE at 24 mph.

They say his winds are near 80mph (estimated central pressure 991mb) with
hurricane force winds extending out 70 miles from his center. I disagree.
At the 5am discussion, this is what the NHC said:

"THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD
COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS
TO ESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT."

1 knot = 1.15mph. So doing that *very* complicated calcuation, I get winds
of just over 74 mph. Although the planes report the finest information in
a storm, they actually still have to estimate what the wind speed is at
the surface because they can't get data from that far down. And as the
resolution of instruments is not very high, I would still maintain this is
a TS.

Then at the 11am discussion, this is what the NHC said:
"EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE
STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA...IN PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z."

12Z was at 8am. Dvorak estimates are based on satellite information to
estimate the wind speed. So a handful of measurements *estimated* from the
planes only *could* have been as high as 75 knots. Looking at buoy
measurements in the area, at the moment those that are closest to the
center are clocking wind speeds of 41 knots (47mph at 41N, 66.5W), 20
knots (23 mph at 40.5N, 69.5W), 18knots (20.7 mph at 42.3N, 66W)

Let's talk about ocean temperatures shall we? He's now over water
temperatures of 23-25 deg C, and about to head into even colder waters of
20-23 deg C. Not a very good source of energy for any storm.

Wind shear - I already mentioned this was strong.

I can't believe they have him classified as a hurricane. I expect them to
downgrade at the next advisory. I'll send out another update later.

Stay safe in Canada...enjoy your vacation ... what's the weather like? ;)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Hurricane Kyle: September 27 Update A

I think some of you can guess what I'm about to say in this update...

The NHC upgraded Kyle to a hurricane at the 5pm advisory and I Totally
Disagree with this!

Based on data from a plane, they say he has winds of near 75 mph (cat 1
range: 74-90 mph) and a central pressure in the 995-999mb range! The
center of circulation is still very much to one side (southwest) of most
of convective activity because there is some very very strong wind shear
from the southwest (vertical wind shear ranging between 23-40 mph!). He is
also over colder water - 25-26 deg C. Really, I'm not at all convinced
about this hurricane designation. And I am not alone... even the NHC (yes,
the same NHC) is not totally convinced:

"THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE
INCREASE IN THE FORWARD MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION."

(this is after a discussion on possibly dodgy wind data/estimates).

I know they are erring on the side of caution because that is their job,
but as you may have heard me say before, I object to labeling storms
incorrectly because they become season statistics - "we had x number of
hurricanes this season blah blah blah" (blah blah blah = technical jargon
in case you were wondering). Harumph.

<end of minor rant> (for now).

His center is somewhere near 35N, 69W and he has really picked up forward
speed (as the NHC kindly mentioned) and is moving approximately northward
at a very rapid 23 mph. It is not very easy to see where his center is
because he is not a very well formed system (yet another indication of his
TS status).

The forecast track calls for him to make landfall as a Tropical Storm in
the northern Maine/Canada region early on Monday morning. This is
more-or-less o.k. - I think there's a chance he will pass a little closer
to the US New England coastline, making landfall in Maine.

We'll see what he (and the NHC) decide to do tomorrow.

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Friday, September 26, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle: September 26 Update A

He's been zooming along a N-NNW trajectory at about 13mph for most of
the day and is currently located near 27.6N, 68.7W. Maximum winds are
near 60 mph, central pressure 1003mb (from a plane), making him a
mid-sized TS (range: 39-73mph). There is wind shear from the west, so
all the convective activity remains on the eastern side - he's a very
lopsided looking storm really.

Bermuda has Tropical Storm warnings in place, but it looks like he will
pass west of the island tomorrow and the winds will be at the weaker end
of that spectrum, so it should really only be a blustery sort of day
tomorrow (said Winnie the Pooh :) ) with possibly some raindrops
(because they are on the eastern side of the storm). Not sure it'll be a
good day for golfing.

The forecast calls for him to become a hurricane by Sunday morning. I'm
not sure this will happen unless wind shear decreases and there is less
dry air in the system. It doesn't look like the shear will decrease too
much. He'll also be over cooler water by then.

If you live in the Boston/Cape Cod area, it looks like it'll be a bit
windy up there early next week.

That's it for today. Have a lovely Friday evening.
(hurray hurray :) )
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle and the Blobette: September 25 (really this time) Update A

Umm yes... well noted for those who mentioned I had the date wrong in
the last update. I knew that. I was just er... testing you. Yeah, that's
right. Just testing. Anyhoo... here's the real Sept. 25 update A. :)

Tropical Storm Kyle:
Finally... after days and days of lurking mischievously in the northern
Caribbean, the Blob is now officially a Tropical Storm Kyle after plane
went into the system and found that elusive closed circulation. His
center is around 23.5N, 68.3W and he is moving generally northward
(maybe a bit NEward) at 8mph. He's a very weak system with maximum
sustained winds near 45 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and a central pressure
of 1001mb. Sea surface temperatures are a lovely 27 - 28 deg C, so
enough to sustain him. The forecast track takes him northward, passing
between Bermuda and the US. I think it might pass a little closer to
Bermuda than the track shows at the moment - but that's a day or so away
yet.

Having said all that, he doesn't look like much at all on the satellite
images. Yes, there is closed circulation, but that's been there for days
(in my opinion he should have been named a Tropical Depression a while
ago), and the center is easily visible because there is a lot of dry air
- so you can see it and the surround wisps of clouds. All the convective
activity (which is quite strong) is confined to the northeast quadrant
of the storm. If the center and the convective activity eventually get
their act together then he'd have a chance to develop, but until that
happens, I don't see him getting much stronger. In fact, there's less
going on here than there is in the Blobette...and speaking of....

The Blobette:
Let's get the important stuff out of the way first. Thanks to all the
responses to my update yesterday.
First, for those in the thick of things, here's part of a note I got
from our reporter in Wilmington (NC) this morning ... (isn't it nice to
have more strategically placed reporters than the BBC World Service ;) )

"Windy all night long with some rain, though not the "up to 1 inch" that
I heard we might get. Through this evening the Weather Channel has
increased the possible rain to "up to 2 inches". We'll see. It was
actually so windy last night that the cover on our quail pin blew off.
Poor birdies. They were hunkered down in a corner this morning. <Name
removed to protect the innocent> replaced the cover - he wore a rain
jacket on the off chance that a rain drop would hit him. <Comment
removed to protect the innocent ;) >"

And did you know that "it takes about 4 quail eggs to equal 1 chicken
egg" ? ... the things you learn with these updates! (thanks J.D. :) )

And from A. F. we have a Haiku (who knew there were so many poets out
there?):
Blobette and Her Blob
One Tragic--Other a Slob
How People Will Sob

So, er.. back to business... about the Blobette (remember, the real
reason we are here?): It's centered about 100 miles SE of the SC/NC
border, and is moving WNW at 10 mph. It is much better looking than
Kyle, and as with him, you can clearly see the circulation in the low,
wispy clouds but there's not as much convection - maybe just a bit of
rain (keep that rain jacket handy). Lots of dry air. Very unlikely to
develop much.

Guess you'll be getting another update tomorrow (unless something
amazing happens this evening).
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

The Blobette and the Blob: September 25 Update A

Now that we are approaching the last couple of months of the 'Atlantic
hurricane season' we can expect storms to sprout up in the western
Atlantic/ Caribbean/ Gulf. And indeed, there have been some interesting
sparks. I've been watching and waiting all day to see what would happen
... not much development tropically, although the economy is still
experiencing some stormy weather, and we do have another 6 or so weeks
before the peak of the political season. :)

The Blobette:
There's an area of circulation that grew a wee bit today, off the east
coast of the US. If you are anywhere from Florida to N. Carolina and it's
been a bit blustery, this Blobette is connected. Although the circulation
is centered SE of Wilmington (North Carolina - for those who were
wondering) at around 32.5N, 74.7W , it is part of a broader region of
vorticity (circulation) that spans most of the SE US coast. There was some
convection in the system this morning but during the day it has been
entraining dry air, so really all we have is some windy weather. There is
a chance this could change as the system is centered close to the Gulf
Stream, but that dry air is quite prevalent at the moment. It looks like
the center is moving WNW (ish) and into cooler water. They are sending in
planes quite frequently (or so it seems) to make sure it doesn't do
something sneaky like develop when no-one is watching (because we know
that never happens). With such vigilance, I think I'll just sit back, have
a cup of tea and keep an eye on it for now (just the one eye mind you). I
hope you surfers are having a jolly good time out there :)

The Blob:
Whilst I'm here I might as well give you an update on the Blob that was
dumping rain on the VIs/PR/Hispaniola region in the northern Caribbean a
couple of days ago. This has weakened - there is still some low-level
vorticity (circulation) in the atmosphere and some winds, but convection
has decreased considerably... and it looks like a er well... a Blob
actually :). It is now north of the islands and appears to be drifting
into the Atlantic.

"For never was a story of more slobs
Than this of the Blobette and her Blob"

Hmm... not *quite* Shakespeare. I'll just go and work on that line a bit
more shall I?

If there's any development I'll send out an update.
Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Monday, September 22, 2008

The Blob: September 22 Update A

Just under 10 days with nary a blob or blobette in sight! I almost
forgot we were still in hurricane season. :)

So, as you may have heard, there's a blob out there. It's been dumping a
lot of rain on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico - lots of flash
floods. This is part of a note I got from our soggy reporter in St.
Thomas yesterday evening: "As of 10pm there is no wind but plenty of
slow rain all last two days with heavy rain hitting here around 8pm this
night and still coming...........we will be flooded out all over the
island no doubt.....St. Thomas will no doubt suffer flash flooding as
will Puerto Rico which causes massive erosion into the
sea...........system is really slow moving right now........send mask
and snorkel!!"

Mask and snorkel is in the post.

I agreed with the NHC analysis of no circulation with this system until
yesterday. Today it looks like there is some very low atmosphere
circulation northwest of the main rainfall region. The heaviest
convective activity is just south of PR/VIs, although they are still
getting quite a few buckets of rainfall. There is some wind shear from
the northwest, which is why the convection is not in the same location
as the vorticity, which is the technical term for circulation.

From the pressure fields it is too soon to be able to tell where this
will go, however the computer models at the moment show that it will
head north and stay in the Atlantic, away from the eastern US.

It is not yet officially a Tropical Depression. However, with the
developing circulation and convection, and winds (from satellite)
already over 30 knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph) or 34.5mph, I think it might
actually already be a Tropical Depression. Water temperatures in that
area are over 29 deg C, so certainly warm enough to maintain heavy
convection.

The next named storm by the way is Kyle. I'll send out an update when it
becomes a TD (or TS).

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Tropical Storm Ike: September 13 Update B

He's been deteriorating all day, and is now a weak Tropical Storm with
winds close to 40 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 980 mb. He
is still barely in Texas with his center at 33.3N, 94.8W, but he is
moving, as forecast, NNE at 21 mph and will be in Arkansas as a Tropical
Depression in a few hours. There is some rain with this system still, and
the possibility of tornadoes in that area.

I have heard of a lot of damage, but so far not many deaths from this
storm, which, is much better than expected. There is a 15-16 ft seawall
around parts of Galveston which helped, but my Galveston expert (thanks
C.M.) tells me it is only on the eastern side of the island. The western
side is, essentially, a sand-bar. I heard a rumour earlier that that is
the end at which most of the Search and Rescue efforts are on-going. I
also read that about 17 buildings in Galveston have been completely
destroyed, and I'm sure you've all seen photos of the damage across the
entire region, including Houston.

Big Bad Ike (about 900 miles in diameter at one point) caused a lot of
damage (I'm refraining from any jokes here here because I'm *trying* to be
tasteful... for a change), not only in the US but to our neighbours in the
Caribbean - Cuba and Haiti especially. I'm glad he's done although we'll
be hearing about him for days to come. If you have family and friends
caught up in this, I hope they are all safe and well. I do expect the
powers that be to pull Ike from the rota of names as well.

This is my last update on Ike (I can hear you cheering you know). The last
break in updates was after Fay. I can barely remember that one whole
entire day of nothing - and yet it was only August 24!

On slightly a different note, I got told off last year by some of you for
not telling you when I'll be on the telly. So, in case I get found out
again (apparently some of you watch tv?!?), I'm on this Monday - Fox 13,
12.30-1pm, Cathy Fountain show, talking about Ike (this is why I know you
will be hearing about him for days to come). I highly recommend you unplug
your tv sets during that time to prevent them from spontaneously
combusting.

Next update will be if something else develops, or if there's something of
interest that you might be... well... interested in I suppose :).

Toodle pip for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------