Thursday, September 25, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle and the Blobette: September 25 (really this time) Update A

Umm yes... well noted for those who mentioned I had the date wrong in
the last update. I knew that. I was just er... testing you. Yeah, that's
right. Just testing. Anyhoo... here's the real Sept. 25 update A. :)

Tropical Storm Kyle:
Finally... after days and days of lurking mischievously in the northern
Caribbean, the Blob is now officially a Tropical Storm Kyle after plane
went into the system and found that elusive closed circulation. His
center is around 23.5N, 68.3W and he is moving generally northward
(maybe a bit NEward) at 8mph. He's a very weak system with maximum
sustained winds near 45 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and a central pressure
of 1001mb. Sea surface temperatures are a lovely 27 - 28 deg C, so
enough to sustain him. The forecast track takes him northward, passing
between Bermuda and the US. I think it might pass a little closer to
Bermuda than the track shows at the moment - but that's a day or so away

Having said all that, he doesn't look like much at all on the satellite
images. Yes, there is closed circulation, but that's been there for days
(in my opinion he should have been named a Tropical Depression a while
ago), and the center is easily visible because there is a lot of dry air
- so you can see it and the surround wisps of clouds. All the convective
activity (which is quite strong) is confined to the northeast quadrant
of the storm. If the center and the convective activity eventually get
their act together then he'd have a chance to develop, but until that
happens, I don't see him getting much stronger. In fact, there's less
going on here than there is in the Blobette...and speaking of....

The Blobette:
Let's get the important stuff out of the way first. Thanks to all the
responses to my update yesterday.
First, for those in the thick of things, here's part of a note I got
from our reporter in Wilmington (NC) this morning ... (isn't it nice to
have more strategically placed reporters than the BBC World Service ;) )

"Windy all night long with some rain, though not the "up to 1 inch" that
I heard we might get. Through this evening the Weather Channel has
increased the possible rain to "up to 2 inches". We'll see. It was
actually so windy last night that the cover on our quail pin blew off.
Poor birdies. They were hunkered down in a corner this morning. <Name
removed to protect the innocent> replaced the cover - he wore a rain
jacket on the off chance that a rain drop would hit him. <Comment
removed to protect the innocent ;) >"

And did you know that "it takes about 4 quail eggs to equal 1 chicken
egg" ? ... the things you learn with these updates! (thanks J.D. :) )

And from A. F. we have a Haiku (who knew there were so many poets out
Blobette and Her Blob
One Tragic--Other a Slob
How People Will Sob

So, er.. back to business... about the Blobette (remember, the real
reason we are here?): It's centered about 100 miles SE of the SC/NC
border, and is moving WNW at 10 mph. It is much better looking than
Kyle, and as with him, you can clearly see the circulation in the low,
wispy clouds but there's not as much convection - maybe just a bit of
rain (keep that rain jacket handy). Lots of dry air. Very unlikely to
develop much.

Guess you'll be getting another update tomorrow (unless something
amazing happens this evening).

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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