TS Fay: August 22 Update B

Dear Mother Nature,

I've been enjoying my tour of Florida. Having been here for almost five
days, I've seen most of the state - the only part left really is the Tampa
Bay area but I hear there isn't much of interest there so I'm probably not
going to bother.

The Keys were beautiful, you should visit them sometimes. SW Florida was
also something you would like; I particularly enjoyed seeing the swampy
side of Florida as I traveled around down there, on my way to Lake
Okeechobee. Not much to see there other than a big lake, so I decided not
to spend too much time but moved on to Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy
Space Center. Now that was fascinating! I spent the whole day there and
didn't get bored at all. I could have hung out there for longer, but as
you know, I'm on a tight schedule and I did so want to have a quick look
at the NE coast of Florida, which is very different from the southern part
of the state. The beaches on the Atlantic side are really wild - big big
waves - and I was having such a good time that I stayed there longer than
I intended. It was nice to see the ocean where I was born.

I spent today crossing the state back to the west side, dropping in on
Gainesville on my way - it's mostly a college town, and do you know if
it's still the biggest party school in the country? Don't worry, I only
stopped for a coffee.

I'm now heading west towards Appalachicola but instead of taking the
circuitous route over land, I took the direct path, cutting over the
north-eastern tip of the Gulf of Mexico. Using my GPS, I can tell you I'm
at about 29.7N, 84.2W. The waters here are a lovely warm 29 deg C, and
with little wind shear the trip is really quite pleasant. I'm close enough
to see Tallahasse but I'm not going to visit it properly or stop because I
want to get to Appalachicola by the morning, so I've picked up my pace a
bit and am now moving at 8mph. There's not too much to stop and see here
anyway, although I must say the warm water is rejuvinating after my
travels over land all day and I'm swirling with winds of 50 mph now.

Here's a map to show you the area my Tropical Storm force winds have
covered so far:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/024715.shtml?swath#contents

Over the weekend I intend to check out the rest of the north-west coast of
Florida - maybe take another dip or two into the Gulf on the way, and then
move on to visit the southern coasts of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana before I head inland. At least that's my plan for now, but it's
all subject to change - you know me! :)

I hope all is well at home.
Your loving daughter,
Fay

P.S. Wish you were here, the weather is lovely.

---------------------------------------------------------
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 22 Update A

The NHC forecast was good as she is now moving in a generally westward
direction. Ah well - maybe parts of Georgia is getting a bit of rain at
least? I know we are down here in St. Pete.

Contrary to what they said at the 5pm advisory, the 11pm discussion said:
FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

So overnight she picked up speed (and by that I mean she went from aound 0
to 6 mph in a number of hours - impressive huh?).

Official word is that her center is at 29.6N (slightly north of where she
was yesterday), 82.4W, putting her close to Gainesville, and 50 miles NE
of Cedar Key - so she stayed on target for that area from my update from a
few days ago, go figure. She's moving west-ish at 6mph.

Her overland path has resulted in a decrease in intensity (this time!),
which was as expected by everyone. Her winds are now 45 mph, making her a
very weak TS (winds: 39-73 mph). At the whopping pace she's moving at she
may not be a TS by the end of the day.

The track has her skirting the panhandle coastline in her continuing
boustrophedon-like tour of Florida, so there's room for a bit of
intensification, but not much (unless she moves south of that path and
entirely over warm water of course). (And I just thought I'd use *that*
word again because who knows when I'll get a chance to next and it's such
a great word - and it makes me chuckle!) :)

If there's any change I'll send out another update later, otherwise
tomorrow...
Bye for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 21 Update B

Since we last met, my computer caught fire. Bet you weren't expecting that
as an opening line. As I was writing the update this morning I was
wondering where that electrical burning smell was coming from and what
that crackling noise was... you guys are lucky I got that update out! The
machine was shut down right afterwards. I obviously work too hard ;)

Anyway, you're not here to read about burning computers... you are hear to
read about this storm thingy (technical term).

She's finally made a move! Hurray hurray! ... but I'm not convinced it's
the move that the NHC is telling me she made. She still has 60 mph winds
(993 mb central pressure) and is therefore a mid-to-strong TS, and
according to them she's located at 29.4N, 81.4W.

I think there was some sort of geo-referencing problem between the visible
satellite image and the infrared satellite image today, so when the NHC at
2pm said she was making landfall near Flagler Beach, the visible was still
clearly showing her center as being slightly offshore and heading NW! It
was bizzare (just one of those days). I don't think I've seen that offset
between the two satellite images before - they are now back in alignment.
I am going with the visible, which is showing her making landfall now,
just south of the St. Augustine area at around 29.6N, 81.2W. This is north
of the NHC center of the cone (and their landfall location).

The NHC is also telling me that she's moving W at 5 mph - she's moving,
but it looks like she's moving NW to me - I suppose they do have more
accurate information from the plane that went through today, but, well...
we will know in a few hours if it is going W or NW. I know I've been wrong
before... and I know they have. The one thing I can tell you is that we'll
know her track and intensity with 100% certainty by this time next week
<grin>.

What I do agree with is the slow motion of this storm. She's still
embedded in that high, so it will be slow... I'll be sending updates out
for days and days yet. Oh what fun for you all! ;)

Until later... toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 21 Update A

Tenacious Fay (not to be confused with Tenacious D, the satirical
heavy/hard/comedy rock band who should now be thanking me for this
unusual PR) is still plodding along just off the NE FL coastline. She
didn't move too much last night which is the bad news. But the good news
is that she didn't intensify either.

Track: The 11am advisory has her centered at 29.3N, 80.8W, 15 miles ENE
of Daytona Beach. From the satellite imagery it looks like she's
centered at about 29.5N, 80.6W - so a smidgen farther north and east,
and therefore farther offshore. But it's such a small difference and her
center is not very well defined anyway, so we could both be correct.The
NHC are still forecasting a WNW movement to begin soon and her re-entry
to Florida... but this is what they have been saying for over 12 hours
now and instead she's slowly drifting N or NNW and staying over water.
The official center of cone track still brings her across Florida,
exiting just south of the Big Bend area (and north of Cedar Key), and
then re-entering Florida along the panhandle coast. I'm now even less
certain of this than I was in my last update. I've just had a look at
the latest pressure maps and it looks like the weakness in the high is
in the Jacksonville area, so I think she'll continue to drift in that
general direction for a while longer. Beyond that it's high pressure
everywhere, so it's difficult to see where she will go. But all is not
lost. Yesterday I mentioned a low pressure system moving across the US
from the west. This is really her best bet for escaping from this high.
It is also moving slowly, and at the moment I think as we saw in an
earlier storm (or maybe earlier in Fay's life), the models are putting
too much emphasis on the location of this low, which is why they are
tracking west across Florida. I think she will continue NNW-ish along
the coast for a bit, then turn properly onto land somewhere in the St.
Augustine/Jax/Georgia border area, and then track NW across GA.

Intensity: Her winds are at 60mph still, and central pressure is holding
steady at 994 mb. The good news is that it looks like she's centered
over the only patch of cooler water along that coast, just west of the
Gulf Stream. Temperatures are 25-27 deg C. That and her proximity to
land is keeping her steady. Let's hope that continues. Regardless, the
NE FL beaches are probably getting a sustained pounding.

And from the central-east coast yesterday: Satellite Beach, near Patrick
AFB, was at about 22 inches of rain & the Indian River was up about 1
1/2 feet.

That's all for now folks,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 20 Update C

Hmm... things are not improving folks. Although earlier I didn't agree she
was over water, she most definitely is now: her location is at 28.9N,
80.5W - about 35 miles SE of Daytona Beach. One indication that she's over
water now, that was absent earlier, is that she has strengthened a bit -
60 mph winds so she's back to being a mid-to-strong storm (TS range: 39-73
mph) and her central pressure is 994 mb.

The FL east coast is a mess - people are being evacuated by boat because
of rising waters from surge and rain. And it's still raining. But I'm sure
you can all get that information and more from other sources. We are in a
state of emergency, aren't we?

She's stalled again, offshore this time - these stalling/very slow storms
really do mess things up as far as track goes. And intensity depends on
track. It's most annoying when they don't behave! Although the NHC track
has moved a little southward (exiting into the Gulf now, closer to but
still north of Cedar Key - eek!), I'm not as sure she will do that as I
was earlier today. It's still one of many possibilites.

Great googlimooglies... have I mentioned what a challenge these slow
storms are? The forecast calls for a slow WNW motion overnight, heading
back into Florida. I can see that happening, but I can also see her
heading NW along the coast, possibly making landfall north of the current
location, maybe in the St. Augustine area, then moving northwestwards into
Georgia. And she might be a cat 1 by the time she makes landfall.

To be honest, given the slowness/stalling nature of this storm, if I were
anywhere in that cone I'd be getting ready (umm...although coastal Georgia
and Jacksonville no longer appear to be in the cone). Unless she starts
turning WNW, I'm not ruling out the possibility of her heading into
Georgia as a hurricane at this point.

They will send in another plane later. I wouldn't be suprised if she does
become a hurricane. In addition to low wind shear, she's stuck over the
warm Florida Current/Gulf Stream waters. Although she's been partially
covering these waters for more than a day now, the water is still so warm
there (27-29 deg C) because it warm with depth. So anything she churns up
is warm as well.

I hope for some clarity by the morning - and also for her be moving WNW.
Actually I'll settle for her moving in any direction she can find a path
at this point, so she can move on from the east coast. I know I said days
ago that she's going to the north/central east FL coast, but I didn't mean
for her to get stuck there!

Stay safe out there,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 20 Update B

I suppose it does take a good day to check out everything at Kennedy
Space Center, and that's what Fay has been doing. She's more-or-less
stalled all day - same wind speed (50mph), same location... and rain and
more rain over the east coast. I got this note from Melbourne: "We have
had 17 inches of rain and still it is raining. Slowed a bit and the
water is receding from nearly flooding my office building (1950's two
story house)." ... umm... sorry to tell you this but the NHC says
isolated places could get up to 30 inches of rain. I hope your umbrellas
are still working!

Intensity: She's not raining as heavily as she was yesterday, but there
are pockets over land as she is pulling moisture from that pesky Florida
Current/Gulf Stream just off the east coast. Fortunately most of the
really heavy rain and thunderstorms are off-shore, over the warm waters
out there. Probably not the best day to go fishing off the north/central
east coast.

Track: She's been stuck in place because she is well and truly
surrounded by high pressure and cannot 'climb' over it. She's chugging
slowly northward at 2 mph right along the coast now - a toddler could
almost er... toddle... faster than she's moving. She is still close to
Cape Canaveral. The NHC have a central location of 28.8N, 80.5W, 30
miles NNE of Cape Canaveral. I would say it's a fraction south and west
of that from the satellite images - and therefore still barely on land -
but her center is quite broad so its a close call.

The problem with a stalled system is that the atmosphere around the
immediate vicinity changes, even if they are stuck, so once they start
to move things can be quite different. There is a low pressure moving in
from the west that will hopefully 'break through' the high pressure and
I agree with the NW-to-WNW turn later tonight/early tomorrow. She'll
move very slowly though.

The official track center of the cone keeps her on land all the way
after she's turned NW, but I am still thinking somewhere between Tampa
Bay and the Big Bend. How about somewhere just north or near Cedar Key
on the west coast of Florida? It's within the cone and I hear that's a
nice place to visit as well...

If things change tonight I'll send out another note, otherwise tomorrow.
Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 20 Update A

I know the folks on the central/northern east coast of Florida won't
agree (thanks for the photos), but this is a fascinating system.

Track: She's still just about over Florida and continues to move much
slower than expected at a grand 3mph in a northward direction. She's
located at around 28.6N, 80.6W - right over the Melbourne/Cape Canaveral
area which is where I expected her to head towards. As I said yesterday,
the reason she's so slow is because she is encountering a high pressure
system. I have just looked at the latest pressure fields... and there
is, indeed, high pressure on almost all sides of her. The only small
avenue of movement she can take based on these is actually NW and back
over to the west side of Florida. The official forecast still has her
moving offshore a bit. I'm not sure she will make it that far east. I
think she'll try and continue northwards along the coast for a while
longer, and then move NW - this is more-or-less in agreement with the
official track and well within the cone. The less she interacts with the
warm eastern waters, the lower her intensity. At the moment, the
weakness in this high is somewhere between Tampa Bay and the Big Bend.
If that is the direction she takes, it means she will exit over the Gulf
...unless something changes - and we know *that* never happens! She will
get weaker though as she moves NW over land... although at the moment
the center of the NHC cone keeps her over land as she moves NW and that
might be a tad too north. We'll see.

Intensity: She's currently got 50mph winds (995 mb), making her a
smallish Tropical Storm, although there is still quite considerable rain
to her north (and south) - it looks like Melbourne is getting a pretty
good car wash! They have reduced her forecast intensity and no longer
have her becoming a cat 1, even if she escapes into the Atlantic for a bit.

To sum up, TS Fay looks like she's taking a boustrophedon-like tour of
Florida: the Keys, the Everglades, Kennedy Space Center, possibly aiming
for Disney next ... or maybe Tallahassee to check out the Capitol...
(That's the first time I've ever used boustrophedon in a sentence by the
way - thank you for the opportunity :)).

I'll send out another update later.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 19 Update C correction...

... oops, I meant she's currently 30 miles SSW of Melbourne. East, West...
left, right... only minor details. I'm sure you all knew what I meant
anyway. :)

TS Fay: August 19 Update C

I must say I quite liked the 2-hourly updates from the NHC... although
they are going back to the usual 3 hourly now.

I agree with them, she has weakened quite a bit since this afternoon.
There is no convection to speak of on her southern side, and what's left
in the other quadrants is geatly decreased. Her winds are now 50 mph and
central pressure in 990mb, making her a mid-sized TS (TS winds: 39-73
mph).

She is currently at 27.7N, 80.7W and was moving NNE at 6mph and heading
towards Melbourne. However, in the past few hours she has been loitering,
which is turning out to be a good thing because it is helping to dissipate
this system (someone finally told her how she's supposed to behave over
land!). The NHC expect her to begin moving NNE at 5mph tonight - she's
about 30 miles SSE of Melbourne.

This stalling/v. slow motion is an indication there is high pressure in
her path - like a ball that's just encountered an uphill incline. So I
wonder if this is the high they were predicting would be in place on
Thursday that would result in the storm recurving. If it is, then it's
beginning it's impact a little ahead of schedule and the track may change.
I will get the latest pressure fields tomorrow and can assess things
better then.

Her reduction in intensity could also impact the intensity forecast. They
currently have her becoming a cat 1 on Weds evening, when she's over the
Atlantic, and the forecast calls for her to make landfall back in
northeastern Florida as a cat 1 on Thursday. Intensity is dependent on the
track as well of course.

Let's see what happens - in my book a mischieviously loitering/stalling
storm always complicates things. After all, Fay has acted so by the book
so far, right?

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 19 Update B

Well she's an interesting one... probably not words you want to read when
a storm is traversing the state, but scientifically she's very
interesting.

Since making landfall, the convection has been decreasing - both in terms
of intensity and in terms of areal extent. There are still possibilities
of strong thunderstorms and tornadoes - especially on her eastern side as
people along the east coast already know. See postscript at the bottom!

However, despite the reduction in convection, she is now better organized
than any point in her life and actually looks like she's trying to develop
an eye - over land! (clearly she didn't read "The Dummies Guide on How to
be a Hurricane" - but apparently we all did ... otherwise we would have
seen this coming - the NHC and models also expected her to decrease as she
crossed land). The NHC put out an advisory at 1pm (an hour ahead of normal
schedule) and just issued another one at 3pm - both somewhat irregular.
Her wind speed is now 65 mph (TS winds: 39-73 mph), so she's a strong TS
and hurricane strength gusts have been observed. Her central pressure is
986 mb - still fairly low pressure.

She is primarily picking up moisture from the Florida Current/Gulf Stream
that runs along the eastern edge of Florida. I don't think Lake Okeechobee
is really big enough or deep enough to provide this sort of energy. We
know that storms that cross the Everglades don't decrease in intensity as
much as storms crossing other parts of Florida because of the water/swamp,
and she was in that area too. Atmospheric dynamics must also be at play in
this. There is very little wind shear and dry air is not a factor. But
again, as we saw earlier this year, there is something else at work here.

As for the track, I still don't see why they have her recurving back, but
there have been times before (very few of course ;)) when I've not seen
what the models forecast in the actual observations. The forecast models
say that the high will re-build westward which will force her to curve
back. This is quite possible, but I don't have any way of confirming it
yet.

My best guess from the observations of the pressure at the moment are that
she will actually exit Florida south of the current track (which has her
exiting at Cape Canaveral - the track has shifted south between the 1pm
and 3pm advisories), possibly in the Melbourne area (or even farther
south) and then head out to the Atlantic - all within the cone though.
Currently her center is at 27.1 N, 81.1 W - crossing the NW edge of Lake
Okeechobee.

Also, I would just be getting ready anyway to be on the safe side if you
live in Georgia and S. Carolina. If there's recurving to be done, we're
still looking at Thurs. for third landfall and things can change.
I agree with the re-intensification once she's over the Atlantic again.

As for Tampa Bay - winds picked up a bit. Not much rain over my head at
the moment, but other parts of the bay may have had some.

If you wish to look at the radar for yourself click here:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

This is the Tampa Bay NWS radar - long range loop, so it may take a few
seconds to load up. Or, you can go to:

http://radar.weather.gov/

Click on a dot on the map for the radar of choice and that will give you a
still image. On the left side, under short range images, there's a link
that says 'loop', click on that for a movie.

Remember, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll make
something up ;)

Continue to stay safe and listen to the EOC/NWS/NHC folks. I'll send out
another update later.
J.

P.S. OH!! I got my first comment on the blog site! (I think it's the first
one)! (this calls for many exclamation marks!!!). For those of you who get
this via the list, the comment said they are getting pelted in Vero Beach
and the Melbourne Doppler picked up a Tornado approaching Jupiter Island
at 10a.

It will get worse over there as she gets closer... and now even more so if
she's getting stronger.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 19 Update A

O.k... so you knew I wasn't really going to sleep in, didn't you? Not with
a storm out there!

Fay made landfall around 5am ish on the SW FL coast at Cape Romano, just
south of Naples. She didn't intensify and is still a mid-to-strong TS with
winds of 60mph, even though her central pressure is 988mb. She does have a
lot of convective activity so this will be a rain event for Florida, and
closer to the center there looks like there are some very strong
thunderstorms and the occasional tornado.

Track: She made the NNE turn over night and is currently moving NNE at
9mph. The forecast has her crossing the state and exiting into the
Atlantic in the Cape Canavaral area, and then recurving back to make a
third Florida landfall (apparently she's really got it in for Florida).
I'll get the latest pressure maps at around 10.30 hopefully and will send
out an update some time later today, but at the moment I pretty much agree
with the crossing the state portion. I haven't yet seen why they have her
recurving back. In any case, she'll be much weaker by then.

Intensity: The NHC also has her remaining a TS across the entire state.
This I'm not so sure about. I know she's going to pass close to Lake
Okechobee, a large water body, but I'm not sure that will be enough to
sustain this intensity. Every hurricane that has crossed this state - even
those that cross quickly and take a shorter path - lose intensity and are
usually one or two categories less by the time the exit the other side.

Storm Surge: The forecast calls for water levels to be 3-5 feet above
normal in SW Florida in locations where the winds are blowing in-land. At
the moment Naples is showing about 1 foot above normal, and may rise a bit
more. They also say 2-4 feet above normal in the Keys - the observations
there show a max of about 1 foot and the water levels are now dropping.
There aren't any forecsts on water levels for the east coast yet, but
where there are obs on the east coast, water levels are not yet over 1
foot above normal. Those are the ones I expect to rise if at all.

For those of you who live in the Tampa Bay area and are not here and have
contacted me to ask what is going on... at the moment we have cloud cover.
I expect rain, possibly heavy rain, in a few hours as she moves NNE and
therefore a bit closer, but that's about it. I think we've had worse daily
thunderstorms. I'll add more later today (I don't expect to lose power at
all, but if I do... oh well, I've got ice cream that *must* be eaten :) ).
Pinellas lifted its mandatory evacuation orders for mobile home and zone A
residents, but schools are still closed.

Finally, yes I know there's another blob out there in the Atlantic. It's
trying to get strong but hasn't quite suceeded. If it does, the track
won't be too far removed from the one Fay took - at least as far as the
Caribbean is concerned. I won't mention this blob again unless he
develops. The next name will be Gustav. Phew... another fairly easy one to
spell.

Stay safe my peeps! :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update D

Last one of the day… ("thank goodness!" I hear you say)

Track: she is on target to make her second FL landfall in the Naples area
tomorrow morning and the NHC has adjusted their track a little southward
and eastward in line with this. She is moving northward at 9 mph. The
track after that is what I expected – moving over land and then exiting in
the central/north east Florida region. I will look at the latest pressure
fields in the morning and see is a change in that thinking or if there is
better indication of where she will exit – however she will be weaker by
then anyway.

Intensity: she is still a mid-to-strong TS with winds of 60 mph. If she is
going to intensify, she has only a bit more room over Florida Bay, but she
although she has spotted areas of very strong convection, overall she is
looking more ragged now and landfall as a Tropical Storm is quite a good
possibility.

Storm surge: those on the west side of the storm will not experience much
storm surge because the winds blow in a counter-clockwise direction around
a low-pressure system in the northern hemisphere – in fact, you will see a
reduction in the normal water levels. However, the areas on the east side
of the storm will get some storm surge. You can look at the water levels
from the tides online website – the information for this is in previous
entries:
(August 4)
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-eduardo-august-4-update.html
and
(July 22)
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/ts-cristobal-and-hurricane-dolly-july.html

Currently no-one in Florida has had a surge greater than 1 foot above
normal levels.

That's all for today. The real fun here begins tomorrow… I think I'll
sleep in ;)

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update C

She's crossed the Keys, and the NHC center of circulation does now look
like the correct one as the radars and real-time information from the
stations down there showed a dip in the winds in the lower Keys, near
Key West. So she's currently over Florida Bay and this is her last
chance to build up in strength and it looks like she's going to try.
Although the convection and organization has improved near and just
north-west of her center of circulation which is over very warm waters
of 31 deg C or higher, the official wind speed is kept to 60 mph (TS:
39-73 mph) despite a drop in her central pressure to 998mb.

Dry air is still being entrained into the system but I'm not sure it's
enough and she might be a low-level be a cat 1 on (second) landfall or
at least a strong TS. The NHC at the 5pm advisory have downgraded her
forecast intensity at landfall to a TS. Within 24 hours of landfall, I
find that the official track is usually quite good, so it looks like
Fort Myers or possibly south will be where she's heading (Naples
perhaps?). They still have her on a NNW track , moving at 12 mph (so
she's also slowed a bit) and overnight I'm looking for an official
Northward and then NNE-ward turn into Florida - that's the thing we want
to look out for.

That's it for now, I'll send out another update later after the 11pm
advisory I think. In this county (Pinellas) the EOC has ordered schools
to close tomorrow, and mandatory evacuations of mobile homes and zone A
residents beginning at 6am tomorrow. This means that the USF St. Pete
campus will be closed. A day off... what shall I do? :)

Despite all my thoughts here, the EOC, NWS and NHC are the people with
the most information at their fingertips so please do not ignore their
advice.

Until later amigos,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update B

Track: The high continued to erode eastward and is now in the Atlantic, which means Fay can turn northward (I think she may already have done) and then northeastward. I'm more-or-less staying with my previous track: so upper upper Keys (!), over the central axis/land of Florida for a bit, and then out somewhere on the eastern side - central/northern. If the high continues to erode, she may just clip south-eastern Florida and head out into the Atlantic from there, which would be the best scenario possible. I see in the 11am advisory that her track is fractionally east than earlier today. I expect them to continue scooching it in that direction. They have her center now over the Straits at 23.6N, 81.5W moving NNW at 13 mph. I'm really not convinced this is correct, although I can see the circulation they are looking at as well. I think it might be somewhere closer to 23.8 N, 81W - but she's disorganized enough for there to be some doubt. Since yesterday (or possibly earlier, I can't remember now...it's all a blur...no, not from too much alcohol in case you were wondering! ;) ) they've been forecasting her to slow down in forward motion, I'm still waiting for that and it hasn't materialized. I don't see it happening, especially with the high eroding eastward and having cleared a path for her.

Intensity: Her winds are still 60 mph (central pressure 1003 mb), and she'll most likely be a cat 1 as she crosses the Straits. It depends also on how fast she moves across. Not much else to say that I haven't already said.

TS force winds are 39-73 mph (in case you somehow missed that in almost every other update I've sent out :) ). Real-time data from the Keys shows: Sombrero Key is recording winds of 21 knots = 24.15 mph, Molasses Reef has winds of 28 knots = 32.3 mph, Sand Key has winds of 33 knots = 37.95 mph.

As she gets closer, if you want to look at data from marine coastal and off-shore stations, there's a map on the Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System (FLCOOS) page: www.marine.usf.edu/flcoos/data.php. Click on the balloon of interest, and there should be a link in there to the data itself. (don't click the purple balloons yet because the links aren't in place for those). There are also some good links beneath the map.

Apparently everyone and their pet cat, dog and goldfish is on the National Hurricane Center website at the moment... everyone except for me as I can't get on from high volume. Or maybe they've finally decided to cut me off ;). TJ, thanks for sending me their latest update... and the previous update "track image" link was sent to me by CK and SH, so thanks there too.

We're seeing the outer cloud bands as north as Tampa Bay now. South and east of us I can see the weather is worse.

It's a 3 or 4 update sort of day...so more later.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update A

Ever had one of those lovely weekends when you get away from it all and
then come back and ease back into the swing of things? No? Me neither... ;)

I've been a little (just a little though) concerned for a few days now
that the center of circulation is not quite where the NHC says - this
has been such a weak system that it has been difficult to pinpoint the
exact center and they know that too, despite planes going into the
system to investigate. Part of the problem has been that there is
circulation at different levels of the atmosphere, and they don't all
overlap exactly as you see in a classic image of a hurricane. This is
often the case with weak storms and is part of the disorganization in
the system. Another part of the problem is that the heaviest convection
is to the east of the center (and now to the north as well). She's just
exiting Cuba now and already interacting with the Straits and therefore
gaining strength. As she gets stronger her center will emerge. At the
moment it really looks east of the track they have her on and if that's
the case. either they had it in the wrong location, or she's taking a
more northward track than they forecast - both are likely in my opinion.
Her official center is somewhere around 23.3N, 81.2W. I think she's
perhaps closer to 23.3N, 80.9W. As I expected, the computer models that
were heading north and west have shifted south and east.

Track: The last advisory had her on a NNW heading at 12 mph. The high
pressure system that had her moving westward for most of the past few
days began eroding yesterday, so she began to make that NW turn... and
from what I see it has eroded further which allows her to move a little
more northward now. I will get the latest pressure fields in a couple of
hours, so I'll see how much it's really eroded, but she is moving
clockwise around that high pressure. Currently the western edge of that
high extends over the southern tip of Florida - the next fields will
show me if it's holding steady there or eroding even farther eastwards.
So from the pressure fields at the moment, it looks like landfall in the
upper Keys and then up over central Florida, exiting somewhere on the
eastern side - possibly northeastern Florida. We should have a better
idea today (obviously). I trust everyone is getting ready or is ready? I
know that folks here are making plans.

Actually, using the best technology at my fingertips, the track she'll
take is here: http://xkcd.com/453/

Intensity: She'll be crossing the warm waters in the Straits of Florida
- over 31 deg C. The warm waters of 26 deg C extend down to about 75-80
m, which is deep, but not as deep as it was south of Cuba. Wind shear
is low, and remains low ahead of her. So I can see her intensifying
today, and agree with the NHC on hurricane strength on landfall. As of
the 8am advisory, her max. wind speed was 60 mph which makes her a
mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph).

More after the 11am advisory... now I'd better go and get some water... ;)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 17 Update A

Remind me not to go somewhere with limited internet access when there's a
storm heading towards me! (and you of course :) ).

TS Fay has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (Tropical Storm range:
39-73mph) and her appearance in the satellite images is still ragged, so
she's not very strong at all yet. Her convection pretty much fell apart
earlier today, but is slowly reorganizing again. However, the convection
is still mostly to her south and east and the west is a bit drier.
Fortunately the interaction she did have with Cuba won out over the very
warm waters she has been traveling over and has kept her intensity low.

Although she's a wee tropical storm at the moment, she is a large system
and it looks like the southern tip of Florida and the Bahamas are seeing
the outer bands – in some places with heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, it looks like the northern part of Florida is experiencing the
low pressure front that I mentioned (was it only yesterday?) coming across
from the north-west. Given that the leading edge of the front is in
northern Florida, it looks like there's a strong possibility that this
storm will curve into the western part of Florida, but where? I know the
models are all over the place, but those that show the panhandle or west I
think may be too strongly following the low to the north, so they will
perhaps curve east further south by tomorrow. I'll have a better idea in
the morning.

The atmospheric pressure fields do show that the high pressure to her
north weakening, and so I would also agree with the NHC that she will make
a turn to the NW within the next few hours taking her over Cuba in the
next 24 hours. This means that she'll be interacting with land further,
and it should reduce her intensity further – in fact if the turn occurs
soon, she might take a pretty big hit crossing Cuba. There is room for
intensification over the Straits of Florida where the water temperatures
are over 30 deg C, but the warm waters are not as deep as they are south
of Cuba.

Her center is somewhere around 21N, 80.2 W and at the 5pm advisory she was
moving in a WNW direction at 15mph. Central pressure is 1003 mb.
That's all for now my friends, as I'm out of computer contact for the rest
of the day. But, like Fay, I'm heading towards Florida and will have
proper access to everything tomorrow. Remember, everyone should be
prepared anyway and heed your National Weather Service/NHC/ Emergency
Management folks.

Until tomorrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update B

Her center is located at 19.3N, 75.8 W and she's continuing to move
westward at 14 mph. For now she's still a very weak Tropical Storm with
winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 1005mb (TS range: 39-73 mph). The
strongest activity in her system is in the southeast quadrant at the
moment – the other quadrants looks fairly weak in terms of convection as
well. There is good circulation in lower half of the troposphere, and
there are signs of circulation developing (v. slowly) in the upper
troposphere.

Now, about her westward track. This does keep her mostly over water
instead of land and over the warmest waters I mentioned earlier. Combined
with weak wind shear, she has room to get stronger as she moves between
Cuba and Jamaica. Not only is the sea surface water warmer than 30 deg C
there, but the 26 deg C water extends down over 100m.

The high pressure is holding steady, and so my guess is she's not going to
deviate much from her westward track for another day at least, which keeps
her south and west of the current forecast track, but it also means she
has time to get stronger.

Let's see how she does overnight. Gotta run now kids…

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update A

Well the good news is that she's still not a very big system with winds of
45 mph. The not-so groovy news is that she survived Hispaniola and is
still not a bad looking little thing.

The NHC at 5am could not find her exact center of circulation, despite a
plane going in - which is an indication that she was a little ragged this
morning. THe 8am advisory says its at 18.8N, 72.8W. I can't tell for sure,
but there's a strong area of convection centered somewhere nearere 18N,
73.8W which is right over warm waters. Regardless, her intensity will
depend on how long she is over the waters around Cuba/Jamaica, which are
the warmest in the Caribbean at over 30 deg C. The longer she interacts
with land (Cuba), the better things will be.

Alas, I still don't have a high enough resolution pressure field to be
able to make a good call on the track. She is currently moving westward at
14 mph, following the southern edge of a high pressure system that extends
from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The question is when
will this erode enough to allow her to curve NW and then NE - that' why
the cone includes Florida as well. The farther west she goes, the more
likely the curve will result in the storm heading into the Gulf of course.

Interestingly, the high is supposed to erode because a low pressure system
is moving eastwards from the western US, and as I write this, I am in New
Mexico and currently sitting directly under this low pressure! This gives
you an inkling of the distances, complications, and other factors involved
in forecasting these storms - forecasts need to be accurate of features
that are thousands of miles away.

No, I have not 'run away' and didn't tell you :) - I'll be back in Florida
before she crosses Cuba. I can only imagine what the media response is to
this though.

Here are the answers to my literary quiz yesterday:
Brave New World (Huxley) - an excellent book.
All's Well That End's Well (Shakespeare) - an excellent play.

and as a bonus, someone sent me this as well:
Very Well Developed (Hefner)

Although I've not read much Hefner myself, I hear that his magazines are
bought for the excellent journalism and interesting articles. :)

I'll send out another update later.
Have fun,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Fay: August 15 Update B

As of the 5pm advisory, the blobette officially became a Tropical Storm!
They finally took the plunge. Phew. It's a brave new world.

Her center is at 18.5N, 69.4W over the Dominican Republic. As she's not
very well developed now (go figure), it's a little tricky for me to see
where her center is - the NHC data is from a plane. I will go with it,
although it does look a little east and north of that location, in which
case she is just now coming ashore onto the DR.

She's got winds of about 40 mph, so she's barely a TS and her interaction
with the mountainous island will knock some of the wind out of her (pun
alert :) ). Convection is strong, which is what we saw yesterday as well,
making her more of a rain event than a wind event. The only problem with
this are the possibility of landslides.

Her intensity obviously is now going to be dictated by how long she is
over land so she may be very ragged by the time she's crossed the DR &
Haiti. I don't have fine enough pressure fields to be able to comment on
her track in a few days - it could indeed head towards Florida. But she
may not be much to talk of by then, especially if she also has to deal
with Cuba.

I heard from St. Thomas - all's well. The heaviest stormy/rainy weather
passed just to their south. They are still not too happy with the NHC
comminications yesterday... but all's well that end's well.

I have intermittent internet access over the weekend, but I'll try and
check in once a day.

Quiz of the day: how many literary references did I use in this update? :)

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette: August 15 Update A

This "no_tropical_cyclone_not_even_a_Tropical_Depression" system is
beating the heck out of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at the moment
with some strong convection, and is heading for Hispaniola. The convection
is massive - usually the sort of cloud tops seen with a decent hurricane,
but there is no eye. I read that the reason why they didn't call it a TD
yesterday was because although the plane was showing TD/TS level winds, it
couldn't find an area of closed circulation at the surface... and the
sparse data they have now also doesn't show closed circulation,apparently.
*That* is what they are waiting to find. From where I am sitting, it looks
closed to me, and not only that, but it looks like it's now in the entire
lower troposphere and extending upwards... but I don't have the very fine
information that they have at their fingertips. Satellite winds now show
some areas with tropical storm winds (TS range:39-73 mph).

For those of you who know this jargon: there's good low level convergence
and high level divergence now as well. I will have to explain it to
everyone else at a later date... (apologies).

It's so odd... usually the NHC errs on the side of caution, but in this
case it's like there's been a switch in policy or something. Anyway, when
you emerge from this on St. Thomas, send me a note and let me know how you
fared this night.

Now, the track is, as I thought yesterday looks like it will be a little
farther south than they had... which means it will interact a bit more
directly with Haiti/DR and although PR is having very little effect on
this blobette, one can hope that the mountains ahead of the system will do
something. There is also a region of slightly higher windshear on the
western side of Hispaniola, and maybe that will also help.

I'll try and send another update out later today.
Gotta run...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------