Monday, August 18, 2008

TS Fay: August 18 Update B

Track: The high continued to erode eastward and is now in the Atlantic, which means Fay can turn northward (I think she may already have done) and then northeastward. I'm more-or-less staying with my previous track: so upper upper Keys (!), over the central axis/land of Florida for a bit, and then out somewhere on the eastern side - central/northern. If the high continues to erode, she may just clip south-eastern Florida and head out into the Atlantic from there, which would be the best scenario possible. I see in the 11am advisory that her track is fractionally east than earlier today. I expect them to continue scooching it in that direction. They have her center now over the Straits at 23.6N, 81.5W moving NNW at 13 mph. I'm really not convinced this is correct, although I can see the circulation they are looking at as well. I think it might be somewhere closer to 23.8 N, 81W - but she's disorganized enough for there to be some doubt. Since yesterday (or possibly earlier, I can't remember's all a, not from too much alcohol in case you were wondering! ;) ) they've been forecasting her to slow down in forward motion, I'm still waiting for that and it hasn't materialized. I don't see it happening, especially with the high eroding eastward and having cleared a path for her.

Intensity: Her winds are still 60 mph (central pressure 1003 mb), and she'll most likely be a cat 1 as she crosses the Straits. It depends also on how fast she moves across. Not much else to say that I haven't already said.

TS force winds are 39-73 mph (in case you somehow missed that in almost every other update I've sent out :) ). Real-time data from the Keys shows: Sombrero Key is recording winds of 21 knots = 24.15 mph, Molasses Reef has winds of 28 knots = 32.3 mph, Sand Key has winds of 33 knots = 37.95 mph.

As she gets closer, if you want to look at data from marine coastal and off-shore stations, there's a map on the Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System (FLCOOS) page: Click on the balloon of interest, and there should be a link in there to the data itself. (don't click the purple balloons yet because the links aren't in place for those). There are also some good links beneath the map.

Apparently everyone and their pet cat, dog and goldfish is on the National Hurricane Center website at the moment... everyone except for me as I can't get on from high volume. Or maybe they've finally decided to cut me off ;). TJ, thanks for sending me their latest update... and the previous update "track image" link was sent to me by CK and SH, so thanks there too.

We're seeing the outer cloud bands as north as Tampa Bay now. South and east of us I can see the weather is worse.

It's a 3 or 4 update sort of more later.


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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