Thursday, August 21, 2008

TS Fay: August 20 Update C

Hmm... things are not improving folks. Although earlier I didn't agree she
was over water, she most definitely is now: her location is at 28.9N,
80.5W - about 35 miles SE of Daytona Beach. One indication that she's over
water now, that was absent earlier, is that she has strengthened a bit -
60 mph winds so she's back to being a mid-to-strong storm (TS range: 39-73
mph) and her central pressure is 994 mb.

The FL east coast is a mess - people are being evacuated by boat because
of rising waters from surge and rain. And it's still raining. But I'm sure
you can all get that information and more from other sources. We are in a
state of emergency, aren't we?

She's stalled again, offshore this time - these stalling/very slow storms
really do mess things up as far as track goes. And intensity depends on
track. It's most annoying when they don't behave! Although the NHC track
has moved a little southward (exiting into the Gulf now, closer to but
still north of Cedar Key - eek!), I'm not as sure she will do that as I
was earlier today. It's still one of many possibilites.

Great googlimooglies... have I mentioned what a challenge these slow
storms are? The forecast calls for a slow WNW motion overnight, heading
back into Florida. I can see that happening, but I can also see her
heading NW along the coast, possibly making landfall north of the current
location, maybe in the St. Augustine area, then moving northwestwards into
Georgia. And she might be a cat 1 by the time she makes landfall.

To be honest, given the slowness/stalling nature of this storm, if I were
anywhere in that cone I'd be getting ready (umm...although coastal Georgia
and Jacksonville no longer appear to be in the cone). Unless she starts
turning WNW, I'm not ruling out the possibility of her heading into
Georgia as a hurricane at this point.

They will send in another plane later. I wouldn't be suprised if she does
become a hurricane. In addition to low wind shear, she's stuck over the
warm Florida Current/Gulf Stream waters. Although she's been partially
covering these waters for more than a day now, the water is still so warm
there (27-29 deg C) because it warm with depth. So anything she churns up
is warm as well.

I hope for some clarity by the morning - and also for her be moving WNW.
Actually I'll settle for her moving in any direction she can find a path
at this point, so she can move on from the east coast. I know I said days
ago that she's going to the north/central east FL coast, but I didn't mean
for her to get stuck there!

Stay safe out there,

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: