Thursday, August 21, 2008

TS Fay: August 21 Update B

Since we last met, my computer caught fire. Bet you weren't expecting that
as an opening line. As I was writing the update this morning I was
wondering where that electrical burning smell was coming from and what
that crackling noise was... you guys are lucky I got that update out! The
machine was shut down right afterwards. I obviously work too hard ;)

Anyway, you're not here to read about burning computers... you are hear to
read about this storm thingy (technical term).

She's finally made a move! Hurray hurray! ... but I'm not convinced it's
the move that the NHC is telling me she made. She still has 60 mph winds
(993 mb central pressure) and is therefore a mid-to-strong TS, and
according to them she's located at 29.4N, 81.4W.

I think there was some sort of geo-referencing problem between the visible
satellite image and the infrared satellite image today, so when the NHC at
2pm said she was making landfall near Flagler Beach, the visible was still
clearly showing her center as being slightly offshore and heading NW! It
was bizzare (just one of those days). I don't think I've seen that offset
between the two satellite images before - they are now back in alignment.
I am going with the visible, which is showing her making landfall now,
just south of the St. Augustine area at around 29.6N, 81.2W. This is north
of the NHC center of the cone (and their landfall location).

The NHC is also telling me that she's moving W at 5 mph - she's moving,
but it looks like she's moving NW to me - I suppose they do have more
accurate information from the plane that went through today, but, well...
we will know in a few hours if it is going W or NW. I know I've been wrong
before... and I know they have. The one thing I can tell you is that we'll
know her track and intensity with 100% certainty by this time next week

What I do agree with is the slow motion of this storm. She's still
embedded in that high, so it will be slow... I'll be sending updates out
for days and days yet. Oh what fun for you all! ;)

Until later... toodle pip,

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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