Friday, August 15, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay: August 15 Update B

As of the 5pm advisory, the blobette officially became a Tropical Storm!
They finally took the plunge. Phew. It's a brave new world.

Her center is at 18.5N, 69.4W over the Dominican Republic. As she's not
very well developed now (go figure), it's a little tricky for me to see
where her center is - the NHC data is from a plane. I will go with it,
although it does look a little east and north of that location, in which
case she is just now coming ashore onto the DR.

She's got winds of about 40 mph, so she's barely a TS and her interaction
with the mountainous island will knock some of the wind out of her (pun
alert :) ). Convection is strong, which is what we saw yesterday as well,
making her more of a rain event than a wind event. The only problem with
this are the possibility of landslides.

Her intensity obviously is now going to be dictated by how long she is
over land so she may be very ragged by the time she's crossed the DR &
Haiti. I don't have fine enough pressure fields to be able to comment on
her track in a few days - it could indeed head towards Florida. But she
may not be much to talk of by then, especially if she also has to deal
with Cuba.

I heard from St. Thomas - all's well. The heaviest stormy/rainy weather
passed just to their south. They are still not too happy with the NHC
comminications yesterday... but all's well that end's well.

I have intermittent internet access over the weekend, but I'll try and
check in once a day.

Quiz of the day: how many literary references did I use in this update? :)

Toodle pip!

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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