Saturday, August 16, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update B

Her center is located at 19.3N, 75.8 W and she's continuing to move
westward at 14 mph. For now she's still a very weak Tropical Storm with
winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 1005mb (TS range: 39-73 mph). The
strongest activity in her system is in the southeast quadrant at the
moment – the other quadrants looks fairly weak in terms of convection as
well. There is good circulation in lower half of the troposphere, and
there are signs of circulation developing (v. slowly) in the upper

Now, about her westward track. This does keep her mostly over water
instead of land and over the warmest waters I mentioned earlier. Combined
with weak wind shear, she has room to get stronger as she moves between
Cuba and Jamaica. Not only is the sea surface water warmer than 30 deg C
there, but the 26 deg C water extends down over 100m.

The high pressure is holding steady, and so my guess is she's not going to
deviate much from her westward track for another day at least, which keeps
her south and west of the current forecast track, but it also means she
has time to get stronger.

Let's see how she does overnight. Gotta run now kids…

Ciao for now,

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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