Monday, August 18, 2008

TS Fay: August 18 Update D

Last one of the day… ("thank goodness!" I hear you say)

Track: she is on target to make her second FL landfall in the Naples area
tomorrow morning and the NHC has adjusted their track a little southward
and eastward in line with this. She is moving northward at 9 mph. The
track after that is what I expected – moving over land and then exiting in
the central/north east Florida region. I will look at the latest pressure
fields in the morning and see is a change in that thinking or if there is
better indication of where she will exit – however she will be weaker by
then anyway.

Intensity: she is still a mid-to-strong TS with winds of 60 mph. If she is
going to intensify, she has only a bit more room over Florida Bay, but she
although she has spotted areas of very strong convection, overall she is
looking more ragged now and landfall as a Tropical Storm is quite a good

Storm surge: those on the west side of the storm will not experience much
storm surge because the winds blow in a counter-clockwise direction around
a low-pressure system in the northern hemisphere – in fact, you will see a
reduction in the normal water levels. However, the areas on the east side
of the storm will get some storm surge. You can look at the water levels
from the tides online website – the information for this is in previous
(August 4)
(July 22)

Currently no-one in Florida has had a surge greater than 1 foot above
normal levels.

That's all for today. The real fun here begins tomorrow… I think I'll
sleep in ;)

Night night,

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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