Wednesday, August 20, 2008

TS Fay: August 20 Update B

I suppose it does take a good day to check out everything at Kennedy
Space Center, and that's what Fay has been doing. She's more-or-less
stalled all day - same wind speed (50mph), same location... and rain and
more rain over the east coast. I got this note from Melbourne: "We have
had 17 inches of rain and still it is raining. Slowed a bit and the
water is receding from nearly flooding my office building (1950's two
story house)." ... umm... sorry to tell you this but the NHC says
isolated places could get up to 30 inches of rain. I hope your umbrellas
are still working!

Intensity: She's not raining as heavily as she was yesterday, but there
are pockets over land as she is pulling moisture from that pesky Florida
Current/Gulf Stream just off the east coast. Fortunately most of the
really heavy rain and thunderstorms are off-shore, over the warm waters
out there. Probably not the best day to go fishing off the north/central
east coast.

Track: She's been stuck in place because she is well and truly
surrounded by high pressure and cannot 'climb' over it. She's chugging
slowly northward at 2 mph right along the coast now - a toddler could
almost er... toddle... faster than she's moving. She is still close to
Cape Canaveral. The NHC have a central location of 28.8N, 80.5W, 30
miles NNE of Cape Canaveral. I would say it's a fraction south and west
of that from the satellite images - and therefore still barely on land -
but her center is quite broad so its a close call.

The problem with a stalled system is that the atmosphere around the
immediate vicinity changes, even if they are stuck, so once they start
to move things can be quite different. There is a low pressure moving in
from the west that will hopefully 'break through' the high pressure and
I agree with the NW-to-WNW turn later tonight/early tomorrow. She'll
move very slowly though.

The official track center of the cone keeps her on land all the way
after she's turned NW, but I am still thinking somewhere between Tampa
Bay and the Big Bend. How about somewhere just north or near Cedar Key
on the west coast of Florida? It's within the cone and I hear that's a
nice place to visit as well...

If things change tonight I'll send out another note, otherwise tomorrow.

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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