Monday, August 18, 2008

TS Fay: August 18 Update C

She's crossed the Keys, and the NHC center of circulation does now look
like the correct one as the radars and real-time information from the
stations down there showed a dip in the winds in the lower Keys, near
Key West. So she's currently over Florida Bay and this is her last
chance to build up in strength and it looks like she's going to try.
Although the convection and organization has improved near and just
north-west of her center of circulation which is over very warm waters
of 31 deg C or higher, the official wind speed is kept to 60 mph (TS:
39-73 mph) despite a drop in her central pressure to 998mb.

Dry air is still being entrained into the system but I'm not sure it's
enough and she might be a low-level be a cat 1 on (second) landfall or
at least a strong TS. The NHC at the 5pm advisory have downgraded her
forecast intensity at landfall to a TS. Within 24 hours of landfall, I
find that the official track is usually quite good, so it looks like
Fort Myers or possibly south will be where she's heading (Naples
perhaps?). They still have her on a NNW track , moving at 12 mph (so
she's also slowed a bit) and overnight I'm looking for an official
Northward and then NNE-ward turn into Florida - that's the thing we want
to look out for.

That's it for now, I'll send out another update later after the 11pm
advisory I think. In this county (Pinellas) the EOC has ordered schools
to close tomorrow, and mandatory evacuations of mobile homes and zone A
residents beginning at 6am tomorrow. This means that the USF St. Pete
campus will be closed. A day off... what shall I do? :)

Despite all my thoughts here, the EOC, NWS and NHC are the people with
the most information at their fingertips so please do not ignore their

Until later amigos,

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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