Friday, August 21, 2009

Huricane Bill: August 21 Update A

Hmm... Things aren't looking too groovy for Bermuda at the moment. I'm
not convinced about that track, or even the location that the NHC have
just released. They have his center at 28.5N, 66.8W. I see it a little
east of that at 28.5N, 66.2N. Not only that, but Bill's been moving
east of the forecast track for the past few hours. Clearly one of us
is looking at the wrong hurricane Bill that's in the Atlantic. But
check it out for yourself...

Go to:
scroll down to Atlantic Floater 2, labeled Bill. Click on either of
the top two 'Loop' tabs - Visible gives you a visible image, and IR
AVN gives you the infra-red, which shows the amount of convection
going on (red is for the biggest thunderstorms you can possibly
imagine). Once the loop has loaded, at the top click on the lat/lon
tab, and also click on the 'Trop Fcst Pts' tab. You should now be
seeing the storm (with an eye) on a lat/lon grid, and some red
symbols, which indicate the current forecast track. That'll show if
it's on the forecast track or not. They move the forecast points with
every update, so best to wait a few hours after the most recent
update. Also, at the bottom of the page you can stop the loop at any
point. Stopping on the latest image will allow you to estimate the

Bill lost some steam earlier today (and his eye) because of wind shear
and dry air. But he'smoving into a region of lower shear, and warmer
water temperatures. Current temps are 29-30 deg C, around the Bermuda
area, they are 30+ deg C. So although they officially have himas a cat
2, with winds of 110 mph, I think they are a few hours too late on
that call. He looked like a cat 2 earlier, but is more like a cat 3
now. His official pressure (as cat 2) is 957 mb, which is a tad lower
than his pressure earlier, when he was officially a cat 3. Hmmm.
Something fishy there don't ya think?

His center is approx. 290 miles SSW of Bermuda. He's moving NW at 18
mph (officially), although as I said, I think it's approaching NNW.
Hurricane force winds are 115 miles from the center, tropical storm
force winds are 290 miles from the center. I'll let you connect those

I heard from SB in Bermuda about 4 hours ago: "very cloudy and winds
about 20 knts. am heading down to get some groceries. Might flash
down to south shore to see if there are any kodak moments. It's grey.
people have been telling me it'll miss but still not sure. might veer
north east slightly from current projected course. looks like the
Passing Wind will do a roaring trade tonight.". ... er... He's not
being rude at the end there. I believe the Passing Wind is a local

Stay safe my Bermudian friends! Write if you can.

That's it for now folks. Time to turn the heating on ... Brrr. :)

Toodle pip,

p.s. Internet probs continue, this time with my email access. Sending
this from an account I set up *just* for you guys who are on the
listdserve. Because you are special. Now fingers crossed the message
doesn't get deleted when I hit send! It took me ages to write!

P.p.s. Despite my not quite agreeing with the NHC at the moment,
PLEASE pay attention to them, your emergency managers and the Weather
Service! They do have the mostest, bestest, data on these systems. And
some of them even have a great sense of humor. ;)


Rachel said...

Thanks for saying what I have been feeling...damn storm could not stay West!

Jyo said...

I don't think it'll be a direct hit, just that it will pass closer than the center of the cone track currently indicates. You guys are on the worst side, where all the activity is so it won't be smooth sailing anyway. If you can, let us know how things are! Good luck. Be safe.