Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Tropical Depression 2 and the blobs: August 11 Update A

I think the NHC were waiting for me to leave before they got all their
coloring crayons out to doodle on the Atlantic map. :)

Our big blobette in the eastern Atlantic is now officially a Tropical
Depression, the second of the season.

It's located at about 15N, 29W and is moving generally west to
west-northwest at about 13 mph, with winds at 30mph and a central pressure
of 1006 mb. The pressure fields indicate it will continue generally
westward (maybe a little west-southwest) for the next day or so and then
it looks like it'll begin to head northwest before turning westward again,
but things can change.

Circulation in the lower troposphere is still good (troposphere: lowest
part of the atmosphere. See
for more on troposphere). There's a little bit of wind shear and although
there is some circulation in the middle troposphere as well, it is
slightly offset, which is to be expected with such a weak system
experiencing slight shear.

Convection was strong overnight but weakened a little this morning - most
likely just a cycle. Water temperatures are around 27 deg C, so certainly
warm enough to sustain a system assuming nothing else affects development.

Blob 1:
Located at around 15N, 50W. I am not too concerned about this at the
moment. It has a wee bit of convection, and a wee bit of low-level
circulation and that's all. ('wee bit' is, of course, quantifiable as it
falls between 'scosh' and 'bit' ;) ).

Blob 2:
Located over the Windward Islands, at about 13N, 61W, this has some
convection and next-to-no circulation. Again, nothing to be concerned over
(unless you are trying to play golf on the Islands, in which case take an
umbrella :)).

That's all for now folks.

p.s. It's sunny here... a perfect British summer day!!

Blog entries archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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