Thursday, August 27, 2009

TS Danny & Atlantic Blobette: August 27 Update A

TS Danny:
He's a bit of a tricky one. The NHC have moved his center all over the
place today, partly because it went missing for a few hours this morning.
Oops. It is back of course, and clearly west of the convective activity.
They have it at about 27.5N, 73.5W, moving W at 2mph. 'Moving' being an
overstatement of course, as a child could cycle faster than him! He has
pretty much come to a stop, because he is surrounded by high pressure on
all sides. You can imagine him as a ball that rolled into a dip in the
ground - surrounded by higher ground and nowhere to move. Poor fellow.
Until there's something to change that pressure field, he'll stay stuck.
As I said yesterday, slow systems are a little more difficult to forecast
in terms of their track. Because as they are taking their time, the
steering pressure patterns around them can change. We've seen this many
times in the past. I'm still more-or-less in agreement with the NHC, that
he will turn NW and the N In the next day or so, because there is a front
(i.e. Line of low pressure) coming off the east coast of the US that will
create a path for him.

Central pressure is 1008 mb, and winds are 50 mph, making him a weakish
storm still. Wind shear from the west/northwest isn't helping him to
develop, despite water temps over 29 deg C. Of course the other problem
with slow storms is they have that bit more time to intensify. I still
don't think he'll be a major one though (major is cat 3 or higher).

Basically, watch him until he's safely gone past you at this point would
be my advice.

Blobette: a blobette moved off Africa with lots of convection. Today the
circulation started to improve a bit, so it's one to keep an eye on. It's
waay out there... Just southwest of the Cape Verde islands at about 11N,
33W. Should it develop further, and the dry air doesn't squelch it, the
next name on the old list-o is Erika.

By the way, in case you don't know, these names are listed on the NHC
webpage. From the main page, scroll down the left side until you see
'Storm Names'. The names are rotated every 6 years, and are only withdrawn
(and replaced) if it was a particulary atrocious storm. So, for example,
we'll never see a Hurricane Katrina again.

I'll try and get a quick note out tomorrow sometime, otherwise Sat it'll
be. Time for a nap before the morning. This "working" lark can be quite
tiring, can't it? ;)


ps. It was sunny here ALL Day!! I put my shades on for the first time in
three weeks. After I'd dusted them down if course.


No comments: