Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Td ana & hurricane bill: august 18 update a

Aaagh...Internet access problems. Lucky I got me one of those handheld
devices with some access!

Td ana: still lots of convection over Cuba & the Bahamas. Still some
circulation. Hopefully that's all that's left in this system.

Hurricane bill: a cat 2, he's still a handsome looking storm. Currently
centered at about 16.6n 52.2w, moving Wnw at 16mph, with central pressure
of 962mb. The track a few days out has shifted slightly west. Tomorrow
will be the day to look for the forecast ne turn. The Nhc have been pretty
good at the 24hr forecast over the past couple of seasons. However, even
if he isn't making a beeline in that direction, those of you in the
carribbean islands need to be ready for some weather. Bill's a big boy.
His *center* is 635 miles east of the leeward islands, but hurricane force
winds extend out 45 miles, and tropical storm force winds are out to 175
miles. And he hasn't finished growing yet.

The last advisory at 5pm had his winds at 110mph, making him a cat 2
storm. I think he's a cat 3 (cat 3 range: 111-130mph). At those speeds a
few mph is within the error margin, and his circulation is pretty darn
tootin strong. Convection is also strong, with strongest action to the
south and east, away from dry air. They are forecasting a cat 4.

I'm giving the nhc an award for most obvious statement of the day:
"interests in the leeward islands should monitor the progress of bill" :)
no, really?

I heard from someone in Bermuda... They are planning a post-hurricane
cruise. Reminds me of the good old 'big beautiful bertha' days from last
year. :)

as you can tell, I haven't figured out how to type in capitals on this
device. Thank goodness for auto-correct. Ho hum.

Until tomorrow.
Tally ho!

P.s. Sorry for typos! (unless they are funny). I can't read or correct
what I've written

P.p.s. I also can't access my usual disclaimer but it's something about
ignoring everything I write and listening to the nhc, your emergency
managers, the weather service. And if I was hypothetically there, I'd tell
you if I was hypothetically going to run away.

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