Wednesday, August 26, 2009

TS Danny and ex-blob Bill: August 26 Update A

I don't know why the NHC didn't label the Tropical Depression that turned
into TS Danny. If I had my druthers (which, admittedly, I rarely do these
days ;)), I would have done that overnight. A Tropical Depression, by the
way, is a system that has closed circulation with winds less than 38 mph.
He had pretty good circulation yesterday evening, as I wrote in the last
update and I think in the NHC 2am advisory they said he had close to
gale-force winds (39-54ish mph). I guess they were waiting for more data
... or having another cup of coffee. :)

Anyhoo... you guys er... I mean *we* have TS Danny out there. :) He's not
a very strong storm. Wind shear and dry air means his convection is east
of the center, which you can see in the visible satellite loops. Currently
he's at about 25.2N 71.2W. Winds are around 45mph (TS range: 39-73 mph).
Central pressure 1009 mb. He is moving WNW at 12 mph. He'll continue in
that direction for another day or so. There's a front moving east, and is
currently over Florida. This will interact with Danny, and should result
in a NW/N turn. So I agree to some extent with the current track forecast,
in that he will turn. But he has slowed down since this morning, and the
slower a storm moves, the trickier it becomes to forecast the track, and
so the question is where he'll skirt the east coast, if at all.

Water temps are currently 29 deg C. We also need to watch out for where he
turns relative to the Gulf Stream. Water temps there are over 30 deg C,
and are also warm with depth in the ocean. That will play into how intense
he gets in addition to wind shear. Unlikely to be a major hurricane

No need for me to tell you to keep an eye on him. Looks like the surfers
will be on the east coast again this weekend! :)

Oh yeah... and how can I forget about Bill? He was pretty harmless. We all
got a bit of rain and wind, but nothing really unusual (for the UK). The
Sun even popped out this evening. I almost blinked at the wrong moment and
missed it. ;)

Toodle pip,

<Insert Disclaimer>

1 comment:

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