Monday, August 17, 2009

TD Ana, Hurricane Bill, TD Claudette: August 17 Update A

Well I survived my first day on the job, and am now relaxing with my first
glass of wine for 5 days, and 'Jeeves and Wooster' is on the telly. :)

TD Ana:
Ana's a determined little system and still has considerable circulation in
the lower atmosphere. Not only that, but she's picked up more convection
since yesterday, which looks very blobette-like at the moment, making it
very tricky to see her center of circulation. Even the NHC is having
difficulty. We'll know more in their next update because I think a plane
was sent in to investigate. There's a chance it is south of their current
estimated location of about 17.6N, 67.3W. Regardless, there are some heavy
storms over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Winds are near 35 mph,
central pressure is 1008mb.

If she follows the *forecast* track the NHC have, she'll pass over
Hispaniola as a TD, and continue towards ... the west Florida shelf and
Tampa Bay area. Of course she will. Typical. Huh. However, that's the
official forecast. I think the reason the track is in that direction is
because of Claudette. I also think that the track might move to the east,
and depending on where her center is, she might fall apart as she crosses
Hispaniola anyway. I also think that the center might be a tad south of
the estimated location, and in that case, there's also a chance for this
system to remain south of Hispaniola. Still keep an eye on her.

A report from our intrepid on-the ground St. Thomas reporter, TJ, on Ana
as she went past that area earlier: "no real wind within our area right
now...plenty of hard rain squalls lasting 20min and longer...wind
seems to come with the rain and then is being reported as
55mile south of St. Croix ...basically a welcomed rain storm without all
of the destructive wind"

Hurricane Bill:
He's looking good. I'll give him that. Center of circulation is clearly at
14.6N, 46.4N and he's zooming along WNW at 16mph. Current wind speed is
about 90mph, central pressure 977mb, making him a cat 1 storm (cat 1
range: 74-95 mph). I agree with the NHC, he'll be a cat 2 by the end of
the day (cat 2: 96-110mph) - if he's not already - and may even be a cat 3
by tomorrow morning. Circulation is strong over the entire troposphere,
wind shear is very low, he's over water temperatures of 28-29 deg C, and
as if all those factors weren't enough, the center is well protected from
dry air by heavy convection. At the moment I don't see anything to stop
him from increasing in strength.

The track: the forecast track is still to the NW, north of the VIs and
towards Bermuda, which would be great as there's a chance he'll miss you
guys in Bermuda as well as those of you in the VIs. I'm still a little
dubious about this though. He might stay on a more westerly track than
forecast, so everyone on any of the islands should be ready even if you
aren't in the cone. That pressure field is still to the south, although
he's getting large enough that it may not be a big component in his track
after tomorrow.

TD Claudette:
As you know already, she made landfall in the Ft. Walton Beach area as a
weak TS in the middle of the night. I don't think storm surge reached 3ft
anywhere. This is my last entry on this system.

Again, thanks to everyone for the lovely emails and comments over the past
few days. I'll get back to you all individually at some point (perhaps
when there aren't any storms out there!).

Toodle pip until the morrow,

Blog entries archived at:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If,
hypothetically, I was there and I was, hypothetically, going to "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'd let you know.

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