[Jyo_hurricane] The Tropical Remains of the Day: October 1, Update A

TD Karen has been downgraded to a low with no more NHC advisories. TS
Melissa is a TD but is so weak that the NHC has also stopped advisories.
There is still some circulation with both systems, so I will check up on
them once in a while, but this is my last entry on both.

The wind shear was really strong - too much for them to cope with. I'm
sure you've been on the edge of your seats wondering what I wanted to say
about wind shear... so here you go...

Maybe you have heard that in an El Nino year we have fewer Atlantic storms
because the wind shear is strong, and conversely, in a La Nina year we
have more storms because the wind shear is weak? An El Nino year is when
the waters in the central/eastern Pacific are warmer than usual, with
associated changes in the overlying atmosphere. A La Nina is when the
waters are colder than usual. The temperature change usually peaks in the
winter months.

I do not agree that there is such a strong connection between El Nino/La
Nina and the hurricane season - there is *some* connection, but not as
much as some folks would like everyone to believe.

Last year the much-vaunted justification for an "unexpectedly" quiet
season was because of a surpise El Nino that resulted in a strong wind
shear, which supressed the storms. That (in my humble opinion) is
incorrect (and hence not unexpected). The 2006 season was weak for a
number of other reasons.

This year, we heard that the season would be strong partly because of a La
Nina that would result in weaker wind shear. I agree with one part of
this. We are, indeed, in a La Nina. You can check the temperatures in the
Pacific at any time by going to http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/.
If
you click on the figure with the colorful panels, the map will get big
enough to see the details. At the moment, temperatures are -2.5 deg C
below the average in the Pacific - most definitely a La Nina.

So the slight flaw in the wind shear argument is that we are in a La Nina
and the wind shear is pretty strong.

Clearly, there are still a "couple of things" we need to work out about
hurricanes and our present-day climate in general. But for now, it's time
for a glass of wine. Priorities you know. ;)

If you have any questions, about this or some other aspect of hurricanes,
please don't hesitate to ask.

So, until there's something else out there... or it's the last day of the
season - whatever comes first, ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD Karen & TS Melissa: September 29, Update A

TD Karen:

After so many days of being in a strong wind shear environment (over 30 kt
shear), Karen is looking really poorly and just got downgraded to a
Tropical Depression. I would completely agree with that. Her track was a
bit loopy yesterday (but then again, whose isn't? ;) ), but she is now
heading northwestward. I'll still be watching her because there is some
circulation, but won't send anything out unless there's a change
(instensification or otherwise).

TS Melissa:

Formerly TD 14 in the eastern Atlantic, TS Melissa is a weak system and is
heading west-northwestward. She is also in a relatively high wind shear
environment, which is not helping her cause. The forecast track takes her
out to the Atlantic. Like Karen, I won't send anything out on her unless
there is a change, or unless she looks like she is heading towards land.

I was going to give you all something to ponder over concerning the strong
wind shear, but it's the weekend and you probably have lots of other fun
things to do. So I'll save that for a rainy day - but don't forget that
these storms are having difficulty developing because of the strong wind
shear. I'll be mentioning it again soon.

Have fun! :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, the remains of Lorenzo, and TD 14: September 28, Update A

I'll start with the easiest first.

TD 14:
This is a new Tropical Depression, way out in the eastern Atlantic,
close to the Cape Verde Islands. It has some circulation and
convection. It is heading in a northwestward direction into the
Atlantic at the moment. Unless someone tells me they know someone on the
Cape Verde Islands, I won't send anything else on this until I becomes a
named storm. So... er... more on this later today then.

TD Lorenzo, formally known as TS Lorenzo, and briefly known as Hurricane
Lorenzo:
He was moving so slowly that he did have a chance to intensify some more
before making landfall. He was upgraded to a hurricane yesterday
evening, and stayed as such for about 5-6 hours, but rapidly lost steam
(puns always intended :) ) after making landfall at around 1 am this
morning in Mexico. He's now inland and a depression so this is my last
entry on him.

TS Karen:
She's still out in the Atlantic and that very strong westerly wind shear
is successfully keeping her disorganized, so all the convection is to
the east of the circulation. Until a few hours ago there wasn't too much
deep convection to speak of, but since the last NHC advisory the deep
convection has picked up again. This might be a mid-afternoon
strengthening. The NHC forecast has her downgraded to a depression at
the next advisory, but with this convective activity, they might hold
back from that. Either way, she's a weak system at the moment.

They did move her long-term track a little closer to the islands, as
expected. Her movement has been a little doolalee (sp?) today, because
the high pressure that has been steering her in a west-northwestward
direction until now has changed a bit. It stayed strong to the north and
east, but also started building up to the west, so she has had this
little pocket in which she is moving around in a circular manner - she
started at 15.1N, 49.2W a few hours ago, and is now at 15.9N, 49.2W but
looks like she might head back southward a bit - it is difficult to tell
when she will finish this circular sort of motion. There's a chance she
will get out of this and instead of resuming her west-northwestward
track, she will move a bit more north-northwestward (away from land) -
it is tricky to see at the moment, so I might send out another note
later today once she has finished dancing in circles.

That's all for now folks!
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen & TS Lorenzo: September 27, Update A

TS Karen:
She's undergoing some *very* strong wind shear from the west (at least
50 knots in some places) so if you look at a satellite image you can see
a beautiful rotation and center of circulation, but all the convection
is to her east. I don't remember seeing such strong wind shear for any
storm so far this season. She remains a TS, and it looks like that shear
will continue for a day or so. The high pressure has not weakened much
since yesterday, so I expect her to maintain a west-northwest path for
the next few days. This will keep her in the Atlantic, but maybe a bit
closer to the VIs (in 4-5 days) than the current cone suggests. She's
still moving at around 12 mph, and has winds of about 65 mph.

TS Lorenzo:
TD 13 was named earlier this afternoon after a plane went into the
system and found 60 mph winds (TS: 39-73mph; 34-63kt). He is moving at a
mere 3mph in a south-westward direction and is over waters of 29-31 deg
C. He is also very close to land (Mexico) so it is unlikely he will
develop much more than this - but because he is moving so slowly, the
center won't make landfall until early tomorrow morning. He is mostly a
rain event. Probably another system which will be a named tropical
storm for less than 24 hours.

I suppose if we are to have above average years, then these are the
sorts of storms to have!

Toodles for today,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, TD 13, and the Florida Blob: September 26, Update A

This is like a box of chocolates - there's an assortment of things out
there.

Tropical Storm Karen:
As expected, she has strengthened and is now close to hurricane strength
with winds of 70mph (Cat 1: 74-95mph, 64-82kt). The deep convection has
just decreased, but that's just a temporary blip and not a long term
decrease, so we might see Hurricane Karen by the end of today. She is
over waters warmer than 28 deg C, but is in a region of reasonably
strong wind shear so that might help to keep the intensity down for a
while. As for the track, the pressure maps show the high that has been
steering her westwards is a little weaker. I can see the low that is
supposed to erode the high, but the question is will it happen before
she gets close to the Caribbean. Some models say yes, others say maybe
not. For now, I would say she'll stay on a west-northwest path for the
next 24 hours, which is more westward than the official center of cone
forecast. There is still room and time for her to stay in the Atlantic,
but I would still be prepared on the islands (don't put your rain gear
away yet :) ). She's plodding along at 13 mph, and will take another 5-6
days still to get to the Caribbean vicinity.

Tropical Depression 13:
The blobette that was hanging out over the western Gulf did a little
wonder woman swirl (which is going to be really embarrassing for it
later if it gets the manly name, TS Lorenzo) and re-emerged a bit
farther south (still in the western Gulf) as a tropical depression -
close to a tropical storm. The high pressure that it was stuck against
intensified southwards, so this system is still more-or-less stuck and
is drifting southwards at a grand 2 mph - the only reason we know this
is because a Hurricane Hunter plane was in the system this morning to
check if it was a storm, and will go in again this afternoon to check if
it is a TS. It is a very weak system, so it's tricky finding the center
of circulation from the satellite imagery. The models all have it going
south-southwest. It looks like there was a couple of millimeters of
Mexico that didn't get rain from earlier storms this year, so this
system might head in that direction. It's over warm waters and the
longer it stays there, the greater the chances for intensification.
Circulation for this system is in the lower to mid-levels of the
troposphere.

South Florida Blob:
The blobette that did not have much circulation to speak off over
southern Florida yesterday is now over the Straits of Florida region,
and has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the troposphere.
There is more circulation in this system than there is in TD 13. There
is also a nice amount of convection associated with this system but the
center of circulation (southwestern Florida & Straits) is to the west of
the area of convection (southeastern Florida/Straits/Bahamas). It's
worth keeping an eye on this blob, particularly because there is
circulation, and because it is over the deep warm waters of the Loop
Current-Florida Current-Gulf Stream system.

Just as an aside, the official names for the Straits on either side of
Cuba are the "Straits of Florida" and the "Yucatan Straits". I have to
point this out because it drives one of my colleagues bananas when he
hears things like the "Florida Straits". Of course, if you want to see
him go bananas, now you know what to do. :)

There are other things out there, but nothing worth really writing about
at the moment.

Stay tuned... (or not) :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Karen and the Blobettes: September 25, Update A

Does that title sound like a band name? :)

Welcome to the 11th named storm of the season - this is now officially
an 'average' season with 11 named storms, and so far a below-average
season as far as hurricanes go (average number of hurricanes = 6, so
they need to make up another 3 to reach that goal).

As you all know by now, the BIG BLOB from yesterday got upgraded from an
invest to a tropical depression to a tropical storm *really* quickly. No
surprise there (unless you weren't reading my blog, in which case...
Surprise!!!). She has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the
troposphere and heavy convection covering many hundreds of miles.

She is in the central Atlantic, at about 11N, 39W heading in a
west-northwestward direction at 15 mph. The forecast track still keeps
this storm away from land, and curves it northward into the Atlantic. If
I were on the islands though, I would still be prepared for some stormy
weather in a few days (as well as today). The high pressure over the
Atlantic extends into the Caribbean, which suggests a more westward
track for the next 24 hours, in agreement with the NHC track for that
time. At the moment I don't know if the low that the models are
predicting will erode this high (beginning tomorrow) and cause the
system to move northward, but she is at least 4-5 days away from the
Caribbean and my time machine is in the shop at the moment so I can't
see what will happen that far ahead. We'll have a much better idea of
things this time tomorrow as that high is supposed to begin eroding and
the forecast track shows a more northwestward movement instead of
west-northwest.

She's a weak TS with winds of about 40mph (35kt) - barely a TS (34-63
kt, 39-73mph). Although this is the same wind speed as "Jerry" (cough
cough... sorry, something got stuck in my throat), this storm has far
more heavy convection and, unlike Jerry, she will get stronger. She is
over waters of 28 deg C and about to enter waters of 29 deg C (parts of
her are already over these slightly warmer waters). On the north side of
the storm there is some westerly wind shear (westerly meaning winds from
the west). The forecast says that she will barely be a cat 1 hurricane
in 5 days because of anticipated wind shear and upper atmospheric
conditions that prevent her from growing. Doesn't that sound nice?

The Blobettes:

There's a struggling blobette still partying in the Lesser Antilles and
heading towards the VIs. It has some low-level circulation, and some
deep convection. Enjoy the much-needed rain!

There's another struggling blobette just hanging out in the western Gulf
of Mexico with the fish. This one hasn't moved much because it is stuck
against a high pressure system to the north and west, so it is difficult
to see where it will move when it does get going but Texas might be
getting some rain again soon. There is some low-level circulation and
some associated convection - the rainfall in LA is associated with this.

There's a mass of convection off southern Florida and in the Bahamas. No
circulation to speak of, just squally weather.

TS Jerry. I know I said that yesterday was my last entry on this system,
but the NHC are just writing things I can't resist commenting on. Their
final entry was last night (after mine) and they upgraded the system
from a Tropical Depression to a TS again! It makes no sense. It was
11pm so maybe they were tired. This is what they wrote:

"CONSEQUENTLY...JERRY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE
LAST ADVISORY. AS JERRY ACCELERATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KT ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT
DATA...HENCE THE APPARENT UPGRADE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM."

Umm... I don't see how "no longer a tropical cyclone" can be upgraded to
a "tropical storm"? Answers on a postcard please.

Right, that *really* is my final entry on Jerry (until the next one ;) ).

And enough picking on the NHC (for now). I agree to disagree on this
particular storm. Generally, I think they do a good (and difficult) job.

I'll be back.
J.

Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD Jerry and BIG BLOB (and little blob): September 24, Update B

BIG BLOB (Technical Term):
I will start with the blob that is, perhaps, the most worrisome to me at
the moment. Although the NHC have not yet given it an official
designation, I am writing about it so that those in the Caribbean (and
beyond) can keep an eye on it. It is at ~ 11N, 33W on the southern edge of
a high in the Atlantic, and following the edge of the high that path takes
it into the Caribbean and then turning northward into the Atlantic. The
good news (as you know, I'm ever the optimist) is that it is unlikely that
this high will stay the same shape over the next few days: the computer
models are even more land-friendly, and just curve it out into the
Atlantic before it gets to the Caribbean islands. It is currently on a
west-northwestward path.

I mentioned this blob in previous messages as the one in the far eastern
Atlantic. It is now in the central Atlantic with the deep convection
covering about 600 miles in the E-W direction and about 500 miles in the
N-S direction. There is good circulation with this system in the lower and
middle troposphere (the lower layer of the atmosphere, which extends to
about 12-13 km height), and circulation is slowly developing at higher
altitudes.

TD Jerry:
The NHC finally downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry to a Tropical Depression
at the 11am advisory this morning. So it was officially a tropical storm
for 24 hours. This is my last note on this "storm". Hurray hurray. Time to
celebrate! :)

Blobettes (oooh... a new "technical" term ;) ):
There's a much smaller blob (blobette) currently partying in the windward
islands (where else would blobettes party? :)). It is bringing some heavy
convection and only has circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Not much more to say about this for now.

There is also an itsy bitsy blobette in the Gulf, but at the moment it
doesn't look like this will develop much. There is some convection
spreading northward over land (look up if you live anywhere in Louisiana
or Mississippi).

That's all for today folks (I feel like I should be chewing on a carrot
when I write that :) ).
J.

Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Jerry & other important blobs: September 24, Update A

Subtropical Storm Jerry aquired 'tropical characteristics' by the 11pm
advisory last night to become Tropical Storm Jerry. It was at a latitude
of about 37N, and over water temperatures of less than 26 deg C. As you
know, I disagree on naming this one in the first place so I won't even
begin to quibble over this designation. The deep convection continues to
remain minimal, and it did not reach persistent winds greater than 35 kt
(40 mph) all day yesterday (and even now), which is just 1 kt (1mph) above
the boundary between a T. Depression and a T. Storm. We had more deep
convective activity in the eastern Gulf and from Florida to Louisiana
yesterday than there was in this storm combined for the entire day.

Speaking of FL to LA - for a change, everyone but TX got rain yesterday.
:) It was a really impressive spread of activity with no real formation -
I quite enjoyed watching it on the satellite imagery. Looks like more
stuff (technical term) is heading for Louisiana today as well.

The other blobs.

1. There is some circulation at the lower level of the atmosphere just
east of the windward islands, at around 12N, 57W. It has some convection
with it, and is moving westward. It isn't very big so just something to
keep an eye on, especially once it enters the Caribbean.

2. The biggest blob (sounds like a sequel to "The Blob" - which, by the
way, is being remade yet again for release next year for the 50th
anniversary) is still out in the eastern/central Atlantic at ~10N, 30W.
This continues to have some impressive circulation for a system that is
still developing, as well as a large area of convection. At the moment it
looks like it will stay out in the Atlantic though.

More later I'm sure...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Jerry: September 23, Update A

I know some of you are expecting this already... Sunday Rant!

Great as they are, I *completely* disagree with the NHC on the naming of
this storm. I wish I had saved the GOES IR satellite image from earlier
this morning to show you how much this storm has fallen apart between the
5am and 11am advisories. I have saved the 11am image, but need a
comparison image to make the point. I had a quick look around on the web
but can't find an archive of those images. I can't believe they have named
yet another storm this year which does not warrant it. Grrr arrrgh
(cartoon steam coming out of my ears). That takes the total "named storms"
up to 10, of which I think at least 3 (or is it 4 now?) shouldn't have
been named.

The NHC justification in the 11am discussion: "AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM JERRY."

First, 0807 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) was at ~4am Eastern Daylight
Time (EDT) this morning. Their 5am EDT advisory had moved it from a low up
to a subtropical depression, which I agree with. But I guess they didn't
look at the latest images for their 11am advisory. It is amazing what you
can see if you look at the latest information - what a novel idea, hey?
Maybe this would explain why I saw landfall for TD10 about 4 hours before
the offical agreement.

My second comment is that they upgraded this storm because they calculated
winds of 35 kt. Satellite wind speed categorization is not 100% accurate,
which is partly why there is a post-season analysis. Subtropical/tropical
storm winds are 34kt-63kt. Their estimate of wind speed is ~1 knot (!!!)
difference from the TS category - this is within the margin of error.

My final comment is a little more political (because as you all know,
science and politics are the same thing these days). It is good to know
that when the QuickScat satellite goes away, there will be fewer named
storms. Maybe insurance rates will come down then. Maybe I'll finally see
a cow jump over the moon. In case you don't remember, QuickScat was the
excuse at the "center of the storm" earlier this year when Bill Proenza
(head of the NHC for about 5 minutes) was fired. To sum up that fiasco: he
said that information from QuickScat is needed but the NHC staff didn't
agree and said that QuickScat winds aren't as important and their analysis
would not be compromised if this data was not available.

There is even less deep convection in this system at this time than when I
wrote my earlier report.

When the NHC does their post-season analysis, I wonder if they ever
'down-grade' a storm. I know storms have been upgraded. Did I already say
this earlier this year? I've been thinking it for a while.

Grr...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Depression 11 & other blobs: September 23, Update A

Subtropical Depression 11:

There's been a persistent area of circulation way out in the subtropical
Atlantic (36N, 46W) for a few days (nowhere near land, and on a road to
nowhere). Yesterday the convection began to increase so in the early hours
of this morning (5am) it was officially designated Subtropical Depression
11. Although the forecast calls for continued strengthening to a named
"tropical" storm (beginning with the next advisory), at the moment I don't
see that happening. It is over cold water temperatures of 24-25 deg C,
which is below the 26.5C value for storm maintenance. Also, in the last
few hours it looks like the deep convective activity has fallen apart. The
center of circulation is broad and is encased in dry air. This system is
headng in a general north-northeastward direction, so no-one need be
concerned with this (unless you happen to be on a boat out in the middle
of the Atlantic).

Other Blobs:

1. There is a large area of convective activity and general cloudiness
stretching from Central America to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a bit
of circulation near the Yucatan, close to sea level. The circulation was
stronger yesterday but weakend when crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The
only reason I mention it is because it is emerging into the Gulf (west of
the Loop Current) and I'll be keeping an eye on it.

2. There is an area of circulation about 450 miles east of the windward
islands. It is quite far south, at 10N, 55W. It has some convection east
of the center of circulation. If this doesn't move slightly northward or
develop soon, it may not develop at all before it gets too close to the S.
American landmass.

3. The one I'll really be watching closely is the blob that is out in the
eastern Atlantic, now west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is
still quite far away at ~9N, 27W, but there is some good circulation and
heavy convection already associated with this system.

I guess you'll be hearing from me later. That should make it a happy
Sunday for you. :)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD 10: September 22, Update A

Tropical Depression? what tropical depression? According to the NHC, TD 10
made official landfall near Fort Walton Beach (FL) about four hours after
I sent out the previous note. The only revelation I have to report since
yesterday is that what I thought was the Panama City area actually turns
out to be the Fort Walton Beach area. Oops. Sorry panhandle residents -
hey, at least I can locate the US on a map. ;)

So landfall was where I said it looked like it was happening, just four
hours before official landfall (I was clearly caught in a time loop
thingy...now if only I could figure out how to "see" the lottery numbers).

It is/was still a rain event, so I expect there are a lot of soggy leaves
out there.

This is my last entry on TD 10.

On to other things. For those of you who like to look at the satellite
images on a daily basis because it is "fun", there are a number of things
the NHC are keeping an eye on. Some of them don't look like developing to
me, and none of them are formally TDs yet. At least two that I will be
watching include:
1. a broad area of convection (a lot of convection) in the northwestern
Caribbean, which has some circulation. It's sort of moving over the
Yucatan peninsula at the moment.
2. way way out in the eastern Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands is
an area of circulation and convection. It is very broad, but roughly in
the vicinity of 8N, 22W.

I have to go now and concentrate on those winning lottery numbers. Have a
good weekend. ;)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 10: September 21, Update A

TD 10 was formally designated earlier today, but it is still a very
poorly defined system. The upper level low is to the south of the
"center of circulation" - I put that in quotes because it is not easy to
see where that is. From the satellite images, it looks like the center
is already making landfall in the region around or just east of Panama
City in Florida, but as I said it is tricky finding the center. Not that
it matters where the center is because most of the rainfall activity is
away from it, as you can see from any satellite images. This is not a
wind event but a rain-storm event.

Luckily it didn't get too close to the Loop Current at all, so it
remained a minor system. :)

Not much more to say at the moment. It will bring rain along the
northern Gulf coast. Winds at 2pm EST were about 35 mph and it was
moving at 11mph in a northwestward direction.

If there's any change or I have some amazing revelation that I
absolutely have to share with you all, I'll send another note out later.

Otherwise, tomorrow. :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Florida Blob: September 20, Update A

If this system is going to get "interesting" it will most probably happen
later today or tomorrow. For now it is not yet a Tropical Depression and
is a weak system. The NHC will be sending in a plane later today to
investigate the system.

The center of circulation in the upper atmosphere has not moved much and
is still lurking (suspiciously of course - how else can you lurk? ;) )
just off the southwest Florida coast. However, the lower and mid-level
atmospheric circulations are better aligned and are mostly over the water
just off the west coast of Florida. The circulation is still quite large
at the lower levels (so not very organized) compared to the higher level.

The western edge of this system is close to interacting with the deep warm
waters of the Loop Current, which is the Gulf part of the Florida
Current-Gulf Stream system. As the westward (or southwestward) movement
continues, from an ocean point of view the conditions are "happy happy"
for storm development. In the atmosphere things are also looking good for
development - there is low wind shear. But the system is still quite
dispersed and hasn't fully got its act together.

You can see for yourself what the conditions are like over the surface of
the ocean off the west Florida coast because buoys out there are returning
data via satellite. Some of these buoys are part of the University of
South Florida's Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (COMPS).

1. Go to http://comps.marine.usf.edu/

2. On the map, click on #22 or #20 (buoys) and you'll see a table with
information on wind speed, pressure etc.

3. Scroll towards the bottom of the page

4. Click on the 'plots' tab under the 24 hour or 5 day meteorological data
and you can see how the pressure has been slowly dropping over the last
day or so.

These buoys form part of a larger effort to develop a Coastal Ocean
Observing System (COOS) for the US. Not all areas of the US coast have
such observations available in "real-time" and it takes time, money, and
trained folks to install and maintain something like this. A COOS includes
buoys, coastal stations, radars, moving observing platforms, satellite
data and models, all working towards providing more information about the
coastal oceans to address topics like storm surge and hurricane research
or harmful algal blooms (like Red Tide), or to assist in search and rescue
operations (for example - there are many other uses).

I'll send out another missive if things change today.
Have a lovely day :)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] The Florida Blob and the Remains of Ingrid: September 29, Update A

I know some of you are thinking that I've fallen asleep on the job with
such a lot of convection just off the Florida coast and over parts of
Florida. I was debating whether or not to send something out yesterday
evening, but there have been a few questions about it since then, so I
thought I'd let you know what is going on and why there hasn't been an
official classification to this system.

This mass of activity we have over Florida at the moment originated as
part of a front that came down from the north. The circulation
(associated with a low - so counterclockwise circulation) was initially
confined to the upper regions of the troposphere (the lowest layer of
the atmosphere) at about 10-12km above the ground. But since yesterday
afternoon and evening, the circulation has been extending downward, and
there is now circulation at sea level as well. At sea level it is not
as well defined as it is in the upper levels. The upper level
circulation is centered over southwest Florida, the lower level
circulation is a bit farther east. The convection that is off the east
coast is a result of the deep warm waters of the Florida Current/Gulf
Stream system. This system has not moved much in the past 24 hours and
because it is slow to develop and is over land, it is not yet strong
enough to be a Tropical Depression. As you have probably heard on the
weather news, we can expect rain over part of Florida. I prefer rainy
and cloudy weather. My kind of day ... and it was /is fascinating to
watch this develop yesterday and today - right over Florida. Very cool. :)

The other thing that has not moved much in the past 24+ hours is the
remains of Ingrid, which is still loitering off the north-eastern edge
of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic, and is producing as much
convection as she possibly can in the unfavorable environment she is in.
There is still some low level circulation, but the really strong wind
shear environment over the past few days knocked a lot out of the
system. The NHC stopped issuing advisories on this a couple of days ago.
I didn't say anything because there was (is) still some circulation. It
is unlikely that this will re-develop, so this is most likely my last
entry on this system.

More later,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression Ingrid: September 15, Update A

The strong wind shear really took it's toll on TS Ingrid, now a Tropical
Depression. So although she still has some decent circulation, there is
not much convection. But to mis-quote Monty Python: 'She's not dead yet'.
:)

She is still moving over waters warmer than 28 deg C, but is also still in
the region of high wind shear and will remain in that for another couple
of days.

The low that was digging into the high pressure that allowed her some
north-westward movement weakend yesterday and the high pressure
re-developed, which is why she is back to moving a little more westward
today, at 12 mph. But the high is still not very robust, and there is room
today/tonight for a bit more northwestward movement before she bumps up
against the southern edge of the high again. However, there is not much
point in talking about the track because there's not much of a storm at
the moment.

There is a good chance that she will survive the wind shear and
re-intensify in a couple of days. I will send out another note when there
is a change in this storm (either she's gone, or she improved).

Have a lovely weekend,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Ingrid: September 14, Update A

TD 8 became Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Atlantic last night, but this
poor little storm is struggling to stay alive.

Track: The high pressure in the Atlantic that was responsible for
keeping Dean and Felix so far south continued to erode yesterday and
there is now a lower pressure gap in the Atlantic which this storm could
pass through - so I am now more convinced that she might stay in the
Atlantic compared to two days ago. For now, she will continue on the
general west-northwest to northwest path.

Intensity: With such a weak system it was not easy to see the center of
circulation in the satellite images this morning, so I was waiting to
see what the hurricane plane would return. They are out there at the
moment, and have located the center at 15.2N, 50W. She is heading into
a region of even stronger wind shear from the west, and she is
surrounded by dry air, both of which will inhibit intensification.
However, she is also simultaneously reaching warmer water temperatures
of 28 deg C at the surface, but also a bit warmer with depth which will
help to sustain her.

The NHC currently have her going from a TS to a Tropical Depression by
Sunday morning and remaining a TD after that. She is looking a little
weaker now than she did this morning, but it is too soon to say if
that's a diurnal thing to a longer-term decline. Her currently max. wind
speed it 45 mph - a weak system.

If there's any change I'll send out another note later, otherwise tomorrow.

But before you all run away, I have some interesting news. Some clever
and funny guys from the NWS have figured out exactly why Humberto became
a Hurricane so soon before landfall. I'm very impressed. This is their
finding:

"The Spurs Rule for Land-Falling Hurricanes in Texas:
Since The Admiral (David Robinson) put on a Spurs uniform, a hurricane
will strike Texas only in the years when the San Antonio Spurs win the
NBA Championship. Chart:

http://ocglw1.marine.usf.edu/~jyotika/spurs_hurricane_chart.jpg"

Ciao,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Humberto & TD#8: September 13, Update A

TS Humberto:

Sneaky storm Humberto did reach hurricane strength about 1.5-2 hours
before making landfall as a Category 1 storm with max. winds of 85 mph.
If only all hurricanes could be like that. He made landfall at about 2am
and has now been downgraded back to a TS. So I was wrong yesterday when
I thought the land and wind shear would be enough to keep him as a
mid-sized Tropical Storm. The NHC did expect an intensification, but I
think no-one expected that much of an intensification. What this shows
is that us scientist-types still don't know why some storms intensify...
hmmm... the words 'job security' come to mind.

He made landfall in northern TX, close to the TX/LA border and is
heading in-land. He still has a lot of moisture so all those in his path
can expect rain, rain and er... rain. Maybe floods. And did I mention rain?

O.k. enough sillyness. This is my last entry on Humberto.

TD#8:

Although this system has some decent circulation, there is just not a
lot of convection - and it has decreased in the last few hours. The
system is surrounded by dry air which is being entrained. The NHC said
that looking back at the satellite winds from Quickscat, it looks like
TD 8 might have reached Tropical Storm strength for a few hours, but
it's back down to a TD and as they didn't see it at the time (they did
have a busy 24 hours with Humberto) it didn't get named (Ingrid would be
the next one). What would we do without those satellite winds?

The official track has also been shifted a little more to the left, i.e.
the cone at 5 days covers a little more of the Caribbean than it did
yesterday - which I would have agreed with yesterday. But the pressure
map from overnight shows me that the high has weakened a bit, and
there's more room for the storm to move in a northwestward direction
instead of as westward as it looked yesterday. So maybe the track will
be shifted back to the right later today. I'm curious to see what the
next pressure map contains later today.

I'll send out another update when this system is not so depressed :)

Toodles,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Humberto and TD#8: September 12, Update C

TS Humberto:

A tenacious system, he's still in the Gulf and hasn't made landfall. The
track moved a little closer to the TX/LA border, which is more in
alignment with where I think he will make landfall. He is now officially
moving north-northeast at ~7mph. The north-northeast motion means he is
heading from the '9' on my earlier Dali clock image to the '10' or '11' on
the clock face. So he's beginning to make that curve. The center is
passing close to Galveston at the moment, but because of the orientation
of the TX coastline (also along a north-east axis), he hasn't yet made
landfall.

His wind speeds are 50mph, so he's still a weak-to-mid TS. Although the
water temps are warm, with the land interaction and the wind shear I don't
think he will intensify much more than this before landfall.

TD#8:

I think the computer models initially incorrectly predicted the long-term
track of this storm. It is going more westward than the current center of
the cone of uncertainty shows, and I still think it is going to move into
the Caribbean instead of staying in the Atlantic. I don't remember what
the exact model tracks were earlier today, but I think some of them have
now shifted to a more westward track, and a larger number of them bring it
into the Caribbean. We might see this track shift reflected in the next
NHC advisory (or the one after that).

This storm is one that I will watch closely. It is too soon to tell where
it will go, and the intensity depends on the track (it is still, after
all, only a Tropical Depression). I have my thoughts on this, but I am not
going to comment further on until I've seen the pressure fields tomorrow.

Until tomorrow...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Humberto & Tropical Depression #8: September 12, Update B

TS Humberto:

The storm that is in the Gulf off the northern Texas coast just got
upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto (not wanting to be a storm with no
name, he zipped through the Tropical Depression phase in ~three hours -
after I sent out the last update). He is interacting with land, and
landfall will be overnight in northern Texas or near the TX/LA border -
it's not very easy to pinpoint the center of circulation. He is moving
northwards and will continue in that general direction because he is on
the western edge of a high pressure system (which will be mentioned
again in the TD#8 discussion).

He's about 70 miles south-southwest of Galveston and is moving north at
6mph. He is over very warm water with sea surface temperatures greater
than 30 deg C. Max. winds are near 45 mph (39kt; TS: 39-73mph, 34-63kt)
so he is a weak system but he does have a lot of moisture, so this will
be mostly a rain event for TX,LA, and possibly states farther inland.
He's in some moderate wind shear, and is also interacting with land, so
there is not much opportunity for him to get much bigger.

A plane will be in the system shortly, so I will send out another update
after the NHC has issued it's 5pm (eastern time) advisory.

And because this is mid-September there's another system swirling away
out there in the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression 8:

This system is also moving along the edge of that high pressure system I
mentioned above. I used this analogy last year, but as I can barely
remember what I said last week, who will remember this from then? :)
Imagine the high pressure in the Atlantic as a clock face - a Dali clock
which is all distorted but still has a 12, 3, 6, and 9. These storms all
move in a clockwise direction around this distorted clock. The trick is
that the clock face (high pressure) never stays still and the edges are
constantly moving as well, so forecasting a storm track is really all
about how the pressure patterns change.

At the moment TD#8 is on the southern side at around 6 and heading
westward(ish), and TS Humberto is at around 9 and heading northward.

TD#8 will continue in a general westward (clockwise) direction around
this high until it can turn north-westward or until it hits land. H.
Dean and H. Felix both hit land before turning because the high extended
quite far south-westward. It is not as robust now, however at the moment
it looks like the general westward direction will continue for the next
few days. The models all have it staying in the Atlantic but to me it
looks like it will enter the Caribbean in about ~4 to 5 days. I'll know
more tomorrow when I get the latest pressure maps.

It is about to enter a region of low wind shear and the temperatures are
at about 27 degs C (enough to sustain a system). The center of
circulation is east of the convection, which is also helping to keep
this system down (in intensity).

More later....
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] The Blob and the bigger Blob: September 12, Update A

The Blob:
A 1958 movie which introduced Steve McQueen to the movie-going audience.
It was the only time he was listed as Steven McQueen. It made more money
than anyone expected and is considered a classic these days. Oh sorry...
wrong Blob blurb :)

O.k., there's a Blob (my technical term as you know for what is more
officially known as an 'invest' or 'Low'). It is hanging off the
Texas/LA coast (and those in TX will already know this because it's
probably raining or will rain... yet again). This morning it looked like
there was some circulation to it, but that is no longer obvious and from
what I see, it is just a mass of heavy convective activity. The NHC will
send a plane to investigate it early this afternoon so it might get
bumped up to a formal Tropical Depression. It is already interacting
with land.

The bigger Blob:
The Blob movie was remade in 1988. I didn't see that one, but I'm sure
it was riveting (?!?)

This is actually a nice looking system with circulation and convection
at about 13-14N, 45W in the Atlantic. This has far more promise in terms
of developing further. If the storm in the Gulf is not named, then this
is the most likely candidate to become Humberto.

I'll send out another update later today on both of these systems.

Have fun in the sun (unless you live in Texas). :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression Gabrielle: September 10, Update A

Although she's been downgraded, this storm has aged gracefully and looks
better today than she has done in the past few days. She is in the
Atlantic now and heading in a northeastward direction. There's still
some nice circulation, but not much convection. What there is remains on
her southern side which is over the northern edge of the Gulf Stream.
It's unlikely that she will get any stronger so this is my last post on
this storm (probably ;)).

I'm also keeping an eye on the blob in the Gulf (which doesn't look like
it will develop into anything), and the blob in the tropical Atlantic
(~10N, 34W) which holds more promise but is in a region of strong wind
shear at the moment. More when something develops.

Enjoy the weather. :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 9, Update B

TS Gabrielle made landfall (Cape Lookout National Seashore) as a
weak-to-mid Tropical Storm at about 11.45 am, with no change in max winds
(50mph). The heaviest convective activity has so far has remained
off-shore, and it looks like she is weakening. She is heading in a north
almost north-northeastward direction, and has picked up her forward speed
to 12mph. Soon she will be heading in a northeastward direction and away
from the US as she moves clockwise around that high pressure system over
the Atlantic.

Her intensity didn't change today because of the combined effects of wind
shear and some limited interaction with land. The wind shear has been
strong enough to push the center of convection to the south of the center,
and the center of circulation is again visible on satellite images. So,
although she hasn't completely cleared NC yet, she looks like she will be
a 'nice' storm for them. I hear they are in a drought, but I am not sure
this storm brought them enough rain to help that situation.

Once she re-emerges into the Atlantic later today her center will be close
to the northern edge of the Gulf Stream, which skirts the US coast from
Florida to Cape Hatteras, NC and then 'breaks away' from the coastline and
heads out in a north-eastward direction into the Atlantic. Depending on
how close she is to the Gulf Stream, this means that Gabrielle will be
over cooler waters of somewhere between 25-27 degs C. Along with the wind
shear from the north, this should stop her from developing any further.

Just a point of interest: North Carolina has historically had the most
'hits' and I don't mean number 1 chart topping hits (although they may
have had those too) :)

And now it's time for a cup of tea :)
More tomorrow.
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 9, Update A

Good morning,

Yesterday we were looking at an exposed center of circulation and
convection in the north-west quadrant. The convection was in that quadrant
because that was the part that was over the warmest waters and the Gulf
Stream. Last night, the center of circulation moved a bit more westward,
bringing it in line with the area of convection, and she truely became a
tropical storm.

Overnight it looks like she oscillated in intensity - weakened, and is now
strengthening again. The main part of the storm is still sitting just
off-shore and parts of NC have, so far, only had a few small patches of
bad weather. A small wobble in the path will be enough to bring her
on-shore versus just clipping the NC coast.

She is moving very slowly (around 9-10mph) in a north-northwestward
direction, over the Gulf Stream. The longer she stays over the Gulf
Stream, the more intense and bigger in size she can get. There is some
wind shear, so that should help keep the intensity down but there's a
chance she will become a mid-to-strong TS before she moves off into the
Atlantic if she doesn't hurry up and move forward soon.

Max. sustained winds are now about 50mph (TS: 39-73mph), making her a
weak-to-mid TS. They will probably increase further because of the warm
water beneath the center. The actual center of circulation is harder for
me to see from the satellite images today, but according to the hurricane
planes it is at 34.2N, 76.4W (30 miles south-southeast of Cape Lookout).

We'll obviously know more in a few hours. More later...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 8, Update B

I was waiting to see what the NHC would say in their 5pm advisory before
sending out another update. They have changed ST Gabrielle's status from a
STS to a Tropical Storm. But she is weaker - they downgraded the max.
sustained winds to 40mph (TS: 39-73mph), so she is just barely a TS. In
case you didn't get this from my morning entry, I am not at all suprised
at her official weakened status. :)

I would have gone a step further and just downgraded her to a Tropical
Depression. Their reasoning is that there is a small chance she will get a
bit stronger (from barely a TS to a weak TS) this evening, so they didn't
want to downgrade her completely. I won't argue with that reasoning.

Since this morning's email, Gabrielle has steadily been declining and has
lost a large portion of what little convection she did have, making her
even less of a storm. The northern "rain band" pretty much disintigrated
and is just cloudy now. You can clearly see the center by the wispy
looking clouds that are circling it in satellite images e.g.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis.jpg
There is still some convection in the northwest quadrant of the system,
the rest is all clouds and a windy day at sea. However, the convection in
the northwest quadrant will probably reach coastal areas of NC once the
storm moves a bit farther north.

She did slow down and is now moving forward at 8mph.

Also, after I sent the last message, they have been shifting the track
away from the coast a bit. Again, I agree with this shift. She is
currently heading northwestward.

By staying away from the coast, it means that she will be moving over
cooler waters sooner - she is already in slightly cooler waters of 27-28
degs C. There is also a chance for less interaction with the Gulf Stream
depending on her path. On top of that, the wind shear will be better than
expected. All these will keep this system down.

A number of people have told me today that so long as a named storm is
this weak they don't mind. The reason I object to naming this (and two
others earlier this year) is because, alas, there are those who just look
at the total number of named storms per season. For example, insurance
companies. The more named storms there are, regardless of strength, the
worse the season looks to those who just look at the numbers and not at
each storm. I could be mistaken of course. Maybe insurance companies do
look at each storm in detail? In which case, they would so far have a
tally of 4 named storms this year that truely deserved it, not 7.

If she looks like she's really picking up intensity and/or heading to the
NC coast, I'll send out another update later. Otherwise you'll hear from
me tomorrow.

Toodle pip,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Gabrielle: September 8, Update A

I got out of bed this morning for this "storm"??

Here's another very pathetic looking storm, which by some definitions of a
Tropical Storm (or Subtropical Storm) should not yet be named. Yes, there
are winds in a closed circulation that exceed 39mph (there's been a closed
circulation with decent winds in this system for at least 2 days) - the
winds are about 45 mph, so it's a very weak storm (TS winds: 39mph-73mph).
BUT there is very little convection, and what there is is all to the
north. One definition of Tropical Storm that I read says: "Convection
usually concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into
distinct bands."

Convection concentrated near the center? I suppose it depends on your
defnition of 'near'. And if there are organized distinct bands of rainfall
in Gabrielle at the moment, then I need a new job.

O.k. Saturday morning rant over :) We will accept this as the
third-pathetic-named-storm-of-the-season-which-would-not-have-been-named-a-few-years-ago.
Bringing our total number of named storms up to 7.

Sub-tropical Storm Gabrielle is moving at a slow 12 mph in a
west-northwestward direction. The reason she is slower than some of the
other storms this year is because she is surrounded by higher pressure, so
it's a bit of an uphill battle. There is a good chance that she will slow
down even more. Interestingly, the pressure in her 'center' is at
1011mb...which is not very low at all (normal range of pressure on average
over Florida during the year varies from about 1013mb to 1020mb).

I am not sure yet that she will make landfall - it will depend on the
pressure and also on how much she slows down. If she does make landfall,
just south of Cape Hatteras/Cape Hatteras is the most likely area - which
is in agreeement with the NHC. But, there's a good chance that she will
just barely clip those areas with her "outer rain bands" and stay mostly
in the Atlantic.

She is over warm waters of 28-29 deg C, but as she gets closer the land
that will increase to 29-30 degs C. Also, she is heading into an area of
reduced wind shear closer to land. So, maybe she will become a bit better
organized later (which is when I will consider her a proper storm). Of
course, if she slows down and hangs out over the deep warm waters of the
Gulf Stream (she's not quite there yet) then she will improve in
intensity.

Despite my cavalier attitude towards this system, of course for those of
you in North Carolina be prepared for some breezy weather with possible
rain/thunder/lightning just in case. I'm sure you are anyway. :)

I'll send another update later.

Ciao for now,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Felix: September 4, Update A

I just got back to planet Earth and see that Felix made landfall in
Nicaragua earlier today as a cat 5 storm. He is now a tropical storm and
about to enter Honduras. Of course, the danger really at this point is
from landslides due to heavy rainfall.

Some people asked me if Atlantic basin storms can cross into the Pacific,
and if they can do they keep the same name. Yes, they can cross and
redevelop but they are given different names once they are in the Pacific.
There are at least two cases in the past 20 years that I know about:

In 1996, Hurricane Cesar hit southern Nicaragua as a low level hurricane
and crossed central America and reintensified in the eastern Pacific as
Hurricane Douglas.

In 1988, Hurricane Joan also hit southern/central Nicaragua as a strong
hurricane (cat 4), crossed central America and reintensified in the
Pacific to become Tropical Storm Miriam.

The track that Felix took is a little farther north than Cesar or Joan so
it is unlikely that he will survive the transition as he moves westward
because there is more mountainous land in his path than there was in the
other two cases.

This is my last entry on this storm.

Cheerio for now.
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Felix: September 3, Update A

Felix (wasn't that the name of one of the odd couple?) is still an
impressive storm, with winds of 135mph - a cat 4.

He did become a cat 5 last night as he crossed that patch of deep warm
water I mentioned yesterday. He is currently over less deep warm water,
but I expect him to regain cat 5 status in a few hours because the water
is, again, deep and warm ahead of him. However, I am not sure he will make
landfall as a cat 5. I think there's a good chance he will be a cat 4 at
landfall (in Nicaragua/Honduras) because just before landfall, the warm
water is very shallow and he will be interacting with land. Still a very
impressive storm and not good for the areas in his path.

At the moment hurricane force winds extend out to 30 miles from the center
and tropical storm force winds are being felt 115 miles away. From the
latest satellite images it looks like he is expanding in size so these
distances may be too small. The outer bands are already over land.

The high to his north is still holding strong and keeping him to the
south, so I agree still with the NHC track. He is moving along at a brisk
20 mph, and is expected to make landfall in less than 24 hours.

I won't be able to send another entry until after landfall, but I'll send
one out after assessing the post-landfall.

Toodles,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Felix: September 2, Update A

This planet that I'm on doesn't seem to provide me with easy access to
email. Or the news. It's quite a nice stress-free planet really... but
apparently I must be partial to some stress because here I am, on the
internet.

O.k., when I said a couple of days ago that this storm wasn't going to do
anything much for a couple of days, I had in my head that he would become
a low-to-moderate sized hurricane today. But Hurricane Felix has been a
very bad boy. In less than 24 hours, he has gone from a cat 1 (74-95 mph
winds) to a CAT 4!! (131-155 mph). This is one of the fastest developing
storms I can remember and the NHC estimate a pressure drop of 3.4 mb/hour.
I have to admit though, he is a very handsome looking storm with a really
nice eye.

He is currently at 13.8N, 72.5W, moving at 20mph (fast). Winds are near
140mph, but they only extend out at hurricane force to 25 miles at the
moment. Tropical storm force winds are out to 115 miles from the eye. I
agree with the track for the next few days - the high to the north is
keeping it south, and at the moment it looks like landfall in the Yucatan
Peninsula. Possibly Belieze.

The bad news (there's good news??!) is that he is now moving to even
warmer waters of 29 deg C or higher, and even worse, he will soon be
passing over an area in which the warm waters are very very deep. The wind
shear will not keep this down, and there is very little interaction with
land now that he is in the Caribbean. So, it looks like he will become a
cat 5 storm.

I will try and check in sometime in the next 24 hours, but overall, I
agree with the NHC official track. Landfall won't be for 2-3 days yet.

More sooner or later...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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