Monday, September 24, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TD Jerry and BIG BLOB (and little blob): September 24, Update B

BIG BLOB (Technical Term):
I will start with the blob that is, perhaps, the most worrisome to me at
the moment. Although the NHC have not yet given it an official
designation, I am writing about it so that those in the Caribbean (and
beyond) can keep an eye on it. It is at ~ 11N, 33W on the southern edge of
a high in the Atlantic, and following the edge of the high that path takes
it into the Caribbean and then turning northward into the Atlantic. The
good news (as you know, I'm ever the optimist) is that it is unlikely that
this high will stay the same shape over the next few days: the computer
models are even more land-friendly, and just curve it out into the
Atlantic before it gets to the Caribbean islands. It is currently on a
west-northwestward path.

I mentioned this blob in previous messages as the one in the far eastern
Atlantic. It is now in the central Atlantic with the deep convection
covering about 600 miles in the E-W direction and about 500 miles in the
N-S direction. There is good circulation with this system in the lower and
middle troposphere (the lower layer of the atmosphere, which extends to
about 12-13 km height), and circulation is slowly developing at higher

TD Jerry:
The NHC finally downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry to a Tropical Depression
at the 11am advisory this morning. So it was officially a tropical storm
for 24 hours. This is my last note on this "storm". Hurray hurray. Time to
celebrate! :)

Blobettes (oooh... a new "technical" term ;) ):
There's a much smaller blob (blobette) currently partying in the windward
islands (where else would blobettes party? :)). It is bringing some heavy
convection and only has circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Not much more to say about this for now.

There is also an itsy bitsy blobette in the Gulf, but at the moment it
doesn't look like this will develop much. There is some convection
spreading northward over land (look up if you live anywhere in Louisiana
or Mississippi).

That's all for today folks (I feel like I should be chewing on a carrot
when I write that :) ).

Blog archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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