Friday, September 14, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Ingrid: September 14, Update A

TD 8 became Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Atlantic last night, but this
poor little storm is struggling to stay alive.

Track: The high pressure in the Atlantic that was responsible for
keeping Dean and Felix so far south continued to erode yesterday and
there is now a lower pressure gap in the Atlantic which this storm could
pass through - so I am now more convinced that she might stay in the
Atlantic compared to two days ago. For now, she will continue on the
general west-northwest to northwest path.

Intensity: With such a weak system it was not easy to see the center of
circulation in the satellite images this morning, so I was waiting to
see what the hurricane plane would return. They are out there at the
moment, and have located the center at 15.2N, 50W. She is heading into
a region of even stronger wind shear from the west, and she is
surrounded by dry air, both of which will inhibit intensification.
However, she is also simultaneously reaching warmer water temperatures
of 28 deg C at the surface, but also a bit warmer with depth which will
help to sustain her.

The NHC currently have her going from a TS to a Tropical Depression by
Sunday morning and remaining a TD after that. She is looking a little
weaker now than she did this morning, but it is too soon to say if
that's a diurnal thing to a longer-term decline. Her currently max. wind
speed it 45 mph - a weak system.

If there's any change I'll send out another note later, otherwise tomorrow.

But before you all run away, I have some interesting news. Some clever
and funny guys from the NWS have figured out exactly why Humberto became
a Hurricane so soon before landfall. I'm very impressed. This is their

"The Spurs Rule for Land-Falling Hurricanes in Texas:
Since The Admiral (David Robinson) put on a Spurs uniform, a hurricane
will strike Texas only in the years when the San Antonio Spurs win the
NBA Championship. Chart:"


These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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