Saturday, September 15, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression Ingrid: September 15, Update A

The strong wind shear really took it's toll on TS Ingrid, now a Tropical
Depression. So although she still has some decent circulation, there is
not much convection. But to mis-quote Monty Python: 'She's not dead yet'.

She is still moving over waters warmer than 28 deg C, but is also still in
the region of high wind shear and will remain in that for another couple
of days.

The low that was digging into the high pressure that allowed her some
north-westward movement weakend yesterday and the high pressure
re-developed, which is why she is back to moving a little more westward
today, at 12 mph. But the high is still not very robust, and there is room
today/tonight for a bit more northwestward movement before she bumps up
against the southern edge of the high again. However, there is not much
point in talking about the track because there's not much of a storm at
the moment.

There is a good chance that she will survive the wind shear and
re-intensify in a couple of days. I will send out another note when there
is a change in this storm (either she's gone, or she improved).

Have a lovely weekend,
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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