Sunday, September 23, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Depression 11 & other blobs: September 23, Update A

Subtropical Depression 11:

There's been a persistent area of circulation way out in the subtropical
Atlantic (36N, 46W) for a few days (nowhere near land, and on a road to
nowhere). Yesterday the convection began to increase so in the early hours
of this morning (5am) it was officially designated Subtropical Depression
11. Although the forecast calls for continued strengthening to a named
"tropical" storm (beginning with the next advisory), at the moment I don't
see that happening. It is over cold water temperatures of 24-25 deg C,
which is below the 26.5C value for storm maintenance. Also, in the last
few hours it looks like the deep convective activity has fallen apart. The
center of circulation is broad and is encased in dry air. This system is
headng in a general north-northeastward direction, so no-one need be
concerned with this (unless you happen to be on a boat out in the middle
of the Atlantic).

Other Blobs:

1. There is a large area of convective activity and general cloudiness
stretching from Central America to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a bit
of circulation near the Yucatan, close to sea level. The circulation was
stronger yesterday but weakend when crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The
only reason I mention it is because it is emerging into the Gulf (west of
the Loop Current) and I'll be keeping an eye on it.

2. There is an area of circulation about 450 miles east of the windward
islands. It is quite far south, at 10N, 55W. It has some convection east
of the center of circulation. If this doesn't move slightly northward or
develop soon, it may not develop at all before it gets too close to the S.
American landmass.

3. The one I'll really be watching closely is the blob that is out in the
eastern Atlantic, now west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is
still quite far away at ~9N, 27W, but there is some good circulation and
heavy convection already associated with this system.

I guess you'll be hearing from me later. That should make it a happy
Sunday for you. :)
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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