Great as they are, I *completely* disagree with the NHC on the naming of
this storm. I wish I had saved the GOES IR satellite image from earlier
this morning to show you how much this storm has fallen apart between the
5am and 11am advisories. I have saved the 11am image, but need a
comparison image to make the point. I had a quick look around on the web
but can't find an archive of those images. I can't believe they have named
yet another storm this year which does not warrant it. Grrr arrrgh
(cartoon steam coming out of my ears). That takes the total "named storms"
up to 10, of which I think at least 3 (or is it 4 now?) shouldn't have
been named.
The NHC justification in the 11am discussion: "AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM JERRY."
First, 0807 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) was at ~4am Eastern Daylight
Time (EDT) this morning. Their 5am EDT advisory had moved it from a low up
to a subtropical depression, which I agree with. But I guess they didn't
look at the latest images for their 11am advisory. It is amazing what you
can see if you look at the latest information - what a novel idea, hey?
Maybe this would explain why I saw landfall for TD10 about 4 hours before
the offical agreement.
My second comment is that they upgraded this storm because they calculated
winds of 35 kt. Satellite wind speed categorization is not 100% accurate,
which is partly why there is a post-season analysis. Subtropical/tropical
storm winds are 34kt-63kt. Their estimate of wind speed is ~1 knot (!!!)
difference from the TS category - this is within the margin of error.
My final comment is a little more political (because as you all know,
science and politics are the same thing these days). It is good to know
that when the QuickScat satellite goes away, there will be fewer named
storms. Maybe insurance rates will come down then. Maybe I'll finally see
a cow jump over the moon. In case you don't remember, QuickScat was the
excuse at the "center of the storm" earlier this year when Bill Proenza
(head of the NHC for about 5 minutes) was fired. To sum up that fiasco: he
said that information from QuickScat is needed but the NHC staff didn't
agree and said that QuickScat winds aren't as important and their analysis
would not be compromised if this data was not available.
There is even less deep convection in this system at this time than when I
wrote my earlier report.
When the NHC does their post-season analysis, I wonder if they ever
'down-grade' a storm. I know storms have been upgraded. Did I already say
this earlier this year? I've been thinking it for a while.
Grr...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
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