Wednesday, September 19, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] The Florida Blob and the Remains of Ingrid: September 29, Update A

I know some of you are thinking that I've fallen asleep on the job with
such a lot of convection just off the Florida coast and over parts of
Florida. I was debating whether or not to send something out yesterday
evening, but there have been a few questions about it since then, so I
thought I'd let you know what is going on and why there hasn't been an
official classification to this system.

This mass of activity we have over Florida at the moment originated as
part of a front that came down from the north. The circulation
(associated with a low - so counterclockwise circulation) was initially
confined to the upper regions of the troposphere (the lowest layer of
the atmosphere) at about 10-12km above the ground. But since yesterday
afternoon and evening, the circulation has been extending downward, and
there is now circulation at sea level as well. At sea level it is not
as well defined as it is in the upper levels. The upper level
circulation is centered over southwest Florida, the lower level
circulation is a bit farther east. The convection that is off the east
coast is a result of the deep warm waters of the Florida Current/Gulf
Stream system. This system has not moved much in the past 24 hours and
because it is slow to develop and is over land, it is not yet strong
enough to be a Tropical Depression. As you have probably heard on the
weather news, we can expect rain over part of Florida. I prefer rainy
and cloudy weather. My kind of day ... and it was /is fascinating to
watch this develop yesterday and today - right over Florida. Very cool. :)

The other thing that has not moved much in the past 24+ hours is the
remains of Ingrid, which is still loitering off the north-eastern edge
of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic, and is producing as much
convection as she possibly can in the unfavorable environment she is in.
There is still some low level circulation, but the really strong wind
shear environment over the past few days knocked a lot out of the
system. The NHC stopped issuing advisories on this a couple of days ago.
I didn't say anything because there was (is) still some circulation. It
is unlikely that this will re-develop, so this is most likely my last
entry on this system.

More later,

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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