Thursday, September 27, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen & TS Lorenzo: September 27, Update A

TS Karen:
She's undergoing some *very* strong wind shear from the west (at least
50 knots in some places) so if you look at a satellite image you can see
a beautiful rotation and center of circulation, but all the convection
is to her east. I don't remember seeing such strong wind shear for any
storm so far this season. She remains a TS, and it looks like that shear
will continue for a day or so. The high pressure has not weakened much
since yesterday, so I expect her to maintain a west-northwest path for
the next few days. This will keep her in the Atlantic, but maybe a bit
closer to the VIs (in 4-5 days) than the current cone suggests. She's
still moving at around 12 mph, and has winds of about 65 mph.

TS Lorenzo:
TD 13 was named earlier this afternoon after a plane went into the
system and found 60 mph winds (TS: 39-73mph; 34-63kt). He is moving at a
mere 3mph in a south-westward direction and is over waters of 29-31 deg
C. He is also very close to land (Mexico) so it is unlikely he will
develop much more than this - but because he is moving so slowly, the
center won't make landfall until early tomorrow morning. He is mostly a
rain event. Probably another system which will be a named tropical
storm for less than 24 hours.

I suppose if we are to have above average years, then these are the
sorts of storms to have!

Toodles for today,

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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