Monday, September 03, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Felix: September 3, Update A

Felix (wasn't that the name of one of the odd couple?) is still an
impressive storm, with winds of 135mph - a cat 4.

He did become a cat 5 last night as he crossed that patch of deep warm
water I mentioned yesterday. He is currently over less deep warm water,
but I expect him to regain cat 5 status in a few hours because the water
is, again, deep and warm ahead of him. However, I am not sure he will make
landfall as a cat 5. I think there's a good chance he will be a cat 4 at
landfall (in Nicaragua/Honduras) because just before landfall, the warm
water is very shallow and he will be interacting with land. Still a very
impressive storm and not good for the areas in his path.

At the moment hurricane force winds extend out to 30 miles from the center
and tropical storm force winds are being felt 115 miles away. From the
latest satellite images it looks like he is expanding in size so these
distances may be too small. The outer bands are already over land.

The high to his north is still holding strong and keeping him to the
south, so I agree still with the NHC track. He is moving along at a brisk
20 mph, and is expected to make landfall in less than 24 hours.

I won't be able to send another entry until after landfall, but I'll send
one out after assessing the post-landfall.

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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