Wednesday, September 12, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Humberto and TD#8: September 12, Update C

TS Humberto:

A tenacious system, he's still in the Gulf and hasn't made landfall. The
track moved a little closer to the TX/LA border, which is more in
alignment with where I think he will make landfall. He is now officially
moving north-northeast at ~7mph. The north-northeast motion means he is
heading from the '9' on my earlier Dali clock image to the '10' or '11' on
the clock face. So he's beginning to make that curve. The center is
passing close to Galveston at the moment, but because of the orientation
of the TX coastline (also along a north-east axis), he hasn't yet made

His wind speeds are 50mph, so he's still a weak-to-mid TS. Although the
water temps are warm, with the land interaction and the wind shear I don't
think he will intensify much more than this before landfall.


I think the computer models initially incorrectly predicted the long-term
track of this storm. It is going more westward than the current center of
the cone of uncertainty shows, and I still think it is going to move into
the Caribbean instead of staying in the Atlantic. I don't remember what
the exact model tracks were earlier today, but I think some of them have
now shifted to a more westward track, and a larger number of them bring it
into the Caribbean. We might see this track shift reflected in the next
NHC advisory (or the one after that).

This storm is one that I will watch closely. It is too soon to tell where
it will go, and the intensity depends on the track (it is still, after
all, only a Tropical Depression). I have my thoughts on this, but I am not
going to comment further on until I've seen the pressure fields tomorrow.

Until tomorrow...
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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