Thursday, September 13, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Humberto & TD#8: September 13, Update A

TS Humberto:

Sneaky storm Humberto did reach hurricane strength about 1.5-2 hours
before making landfall as a Category 1 storm with max. winds of 85 mph.
If only all hurricanes could be like that. He made landfall at about 2am
and has now been downgraded back to a TS. So I was wrong yesterday when
I thought the land and wind shear would be enough to keep him as a
mid-sized Tropical Storm. The NHC did expect an intensification, but I
think no-one expected that much of an intensification. What this shows
is that us scientist-types still don't know why some storms intensify...
hmmm... the words 'job security' come to mind.

He made landfall in northern TX, close to the TX/LA border and is
heading in-land. He still has a lot of moisture so all those in his path
can expect rain, rain and er... rain. Maybe floods. And did I mention rain?

O.k. enough sillyness. This is my last entry on Humberto.


Although this system has some decent circulation, there is just not a
lot of convection - and it has decreased in the last few hours. The
system is surrounded by dry air which is being entrained. The NHC said
that looking back at the satellite winds from Quickscat, it looks like
TD 8 might have reached Tropical Storm strength for a few hours, but
it's back down to a TD and as they didn't see it at the time (they did
have a busy 24 hours with Humberto) it didn't get named (Ingrid would be
the next one). What would we do without those satellite winds?

The official track has also been shifted a little more to the left, i.e.
the cone at 5 days covers a little more of the Caribbean than it did
yesterday - which I would have agreed with yesterday. But the pressure
map from overnight shows me that the high has weakened a bit, and
there's more room for the storm to move in a northwestward direction
instead of as westward as it looked yesterday. So maybe the track will
be shifted back to the right later today. I'm curious to see what the
next pressure map contains later today.

I'll send out another update when this system is not so depressed :)

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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