Friday, September 28, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, the remains of Lorenzo, and TD 14: September 28, Update A

I'll start with the easiest first.

TD 14:
This is a new Tropical Depression, way out in the eastern Atlantic,
close to the Cape Verde Islands. It has some circulation and
convection. It is heading in a northwestward direction into the
Atlantic at the moment. Unless someone tells me they know someone on the
Cape Verde Islands, I won't send anything else on this until I becomes a
named storm. So... er... more on this later today then.

TD Lorenzo, formally known as TS Lorenzo, and briefly known as Hurricane
He was moving so slowly that he did have a chance to intensify some more
before making landfall. He was upgraded to a hurricane yesterday
evening, and stayed as such for about 5-6 hours, but rapidly lost steam
(puns always intended :) ) after making landfall at around 1 am this
morning in Mexico. He's now inland and a depression so this is my last
entry on him.

TS Karen:
She's still out in the Atlantic and that very strong westerly wind shear
is successfully keeping her disorganized, so all the convection is to
the east of the circulation. Until a few hours ago there wasn't too much
deep convection to speak of, but since the last NHC advisory the deep
convection has picked up again. This might be a mid-afternoon
strengthening. The NHC forecast has her downgraded to a depression at
the next advisory, but with this convective activity, they might hold
back from that. Either way, she's a weak system at the moment.

They did move her long-term track a little closer to the islands, as
expected. Her movement has been a little doolalee (sp?) today, because
the high pressure that has been steering her in a west-northwestward
direction until now has changed a bit. It stayed strong to the north and
east, but also started building up to the west, so she has had this
little pocket in which she is moving around in a circular manner - she
started at 15.1N, 49.2W a few hours ago, and is now at 15.9N, 49.2W but
looks like she might head back southward a bit - it is difficult to tell
when she will finish this circular sort of motion. There's a chance she
will get out of this and instead of resuming her west-northwestward
track, she will move a bit more north-northwestward (away from land) -
it is tricky to see at the moment, so I might send out another note
later today once she has finished dancing in circles.

That's all for now folks!

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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