Thursday, August 28, 2008

TS Gustav, TS Hanna & assorted Blobs and Blobettes: August 28 Update B

Aahhh, another nice, calm day in the tropics... I am, of course, referring
to the tropics on Mars. Here on planet Earth someone's been a bit busy
with that coloring pen and the map of the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf, haven't
they? Tut tut tut. As I didn't write about Hanna until she was a TS
(barely though - see below) - my bad!, I guess I ought to write about all
the other blobs and blobettes so you know what's what.

TS Gustav:
He's made very little progress in intensity or track and is continuing to
dump rain on poor little Jamaica. He is currently at 18.1N, 76.6W, heading
W over the island at 6mph, so he's now crawling at the same speed as a
snail ... or so I imagine it feels to the Jamaicans! Winds are holding
steady at 70mph, as expected. Central pressure is 985mb. I heard that LA
and MS declared a state of emergency. I can imagine what everyone is
thinking... but really, he could still go anywhere once he gets past Cuba.
As I said earlier, there is now room for him to take a more NW turn
towards Cuba. The track has slowly shifted eastward and now brings him
north of Grand Cayman and more solidly over western Cuba than before. But
its still a complicated situation. Everyone should be getting ready - from
the Florida to Mexico.

TS Hanna:
She's actually weakened - a combination of wind shear and dry air
continues to keep the convection on the eastern side and her max. winds
are now around 40 mph (TS: 39-73 mph), so she is barely a TS! But I think
the NHC will keep her at that because she has the potential to
re-intensify if either factor changes. Central pressure is 1003 mb. She's
located at 20.7N, 60.1W and is moving WNW at 12 mph. It still looks like
she will turn NW maybe in the next day or so. It is still too far to
assess where she'll be in five days, so everyone on the eastern seaboard
(including Bermuda) should be watching.

Going from West to East:

Blob #1 - currently located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Its got a
lot of convective activity - clouds, rain, thunder etc. but I don't see
any circulation in this at the moment. The NHC have it shaded 'orange'
indicating 20-50% probability of formation. I will keep an eye on it.

Blobette #2 - currently located in the middle of the Atlantic, between
Hanna and the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC have this shaded yellow,
indicating low probability of formation. There is some circulation in the
lower sections of the troposphere, but not much convective activity. No
self-respecting blobette would be seen out on the town looking like this!
So I'll not send out any more on this one unless it smartens up a bit.

Blob #3 - left Africa today. It has some really strong circulation in the
lowest section of the troposphere, and some not very well organized areas
of convection. The NHC have it marked as a medium probability. I'll keep
an eye on this one too.

That's all for now folks. I might send one out later tonight - mostly on
the named systems. I'm visiting another planet (in another galaxy) for the
next four days. If all goes as planned, I'll be sending updates (at least
one per day if I can) - assuming they are technologically advanced enough.

Toodle pip,

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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