Thursday, August 28, 2008

TS Gustav & TS Hanna: August 28 Update A

GREAT GOOGLIMOOGLIES!!! Who forgot to give Mother Nature the "It's Labor
Day Weekend: everything will be closed for the long weekend" Memo???

TS Gustav:
He's apparently touring the Caribbean. Having had a look around
Hispaniola, he made a beeline for Jamaica, where he is at the moment. He
did take his time crossing though, and appeared to stall just off the
coast of Jamaica over night.

Once he finally managed to move away from interacting with Haiti he
started to get stronger over water where temperatures are greater than 31
deg C (and 26 deg C temps over the upper 100m). His max. winds are now 70
mph (983mb central pressure), so he's a very strong Tropical Storm/almost
a cat 1 (74-95 mph range). There is a lot of convection (strong
thunderstorms), mostly over water but some over the eastern side of the
island at the moment as well.

Circulation now extends almost to the top of the troposphere (the top is
called the tropopause).

There is a bit of wind shear from the north, but it looks like it will
diminish in a day or so. Combining that with his interactions with
Jamaica, there's a chance he will remain a strong TS as he crosses the
island, and then begin to regroup over water on the other side.

The forecast calls for him to remain a hurricane from this point out,
gradually increasing to a cat 2 in 3-4 days. The official center is
somewhere around 17.9N, 76.1W. He's moving W at 5mph and is basically over

That high pressure retreated northwards yesterday, which gives him plenty
of room to move in a more northward direction versus a southward one, so a
WNW-NW motion is not out of the question. The center of cone is forecast
to head right over Grand Cayman, but there is room for him to move north
of that closer towards Cuba. The high has also expanded westward into the
Gulf, bringing it closer to the Tex/Mex border at that end. But it is too
soon to make that call. As I said earlier, everyone in the Gulf states
need to be ready.

TS Hanna:
TD8 was just upgraded to a TS, which is what she looks like - satellite
winds are around 35 knots, which is about 40 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph).
You better start thinking up those cartoon jokes now...

She is currently at 20.5N, 59.2W, heading WNW at 12mph. I agree with the
NHC that she will make a NW turn in the Atlantic. I know the track looks
like it's heading towards the US eastern seaboard, but it is way too soon
to tell. Er... she might actually recurve towards Bermuda... so if you are
on that cruise next week, that's the one you want to keep an eye on.
Central pressure 1002 mb.

She's experiencing some wind shear from the west, which is keeping most of
the convection to the east of the center. Water temperatures underneath
are 29 deg C with warm waters of over 26 deg C in the upper 60m.

I'll send out another update later.

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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