Saturday, August 30, 2008

Hurricane Gustav, TS Hanna, Blob: August 30 Update A

Bother bother bother bother. Do these storms know I'm on vacation? I'm
sure you all know what is going on from the news reports, but Bad Boy
Gustav intensified VERY RAPIDLY over the past ~30 hours from basically a
strong Tropical Storm to a CAT 4! You know, I think this time last year I
was in this same place and the storm du jour did the same darn thing
before hitting the Yucuatan. Hmmm. Anyway, we all knew it was going to
intensify, but this was beyond everyone's expectations. We've seen this
rapid intensification before - a number of times this year already, and in
previous years. This illustrates, yet again, that we still have a long way
to go before we fully understand what makes storms intensify before we can
begin to have better predictions.

Hurricane Gustav:
Made first landfall in Cuba's Isle of Youth as a mid-to-strong Cat 4 storm
with winds of 145 mph (cat 4 range: 131-155mph), central pressure of 954
mb. At this point, any interaction with Cuba probably won't do much damage
before he makes second landfall in western Cuba, and I would not rule out
the possibility that he could become a cat 5 (range: 155 mph or greater).
He's currently located at 21.6N, 82.5W, continuing NW 14 mph.

This is not good because it looks like his entry into the Gulf may be as a
major storm - cat 3. There is a high pressure expanding eastward across
the US and by the time the storm enters the Gulf, there's a good chance
he will be heading towards the TX/LA border. However, the high has not
yet reached the Gulf, so there is still uncertainty regarding landfall and
everyone is (I hope) prepared.

TS Hanna:
She's still a mid-level TS with winds of 50 mph, central pressure 1000mb.
She's currently located at 22.2N, 67W, heading WNW 8mph. She will continue
in a WNW to W direction for now as a high pressure is also building
westward across the Atlantic. Future track now depends on this high
pressure, the high pressure coming in from the west, and where Gustav
goes. Did I mention this is all a bit complicated? (as they always seem to

There's a blob out in the eastern Atlantic - one of the ones I mentioned a
couple of days ago. This one looks somewhat promising. But I am out of
time now, so I will try and get to it tomorrow.

My apologies my friends, but I really have to get going. If you More

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


Hurricane Ranger said...

Newbe, congradulations w/St. Pete Times this morning, guess I'll climb aboard for advice OK, captain...
Thanks much,

Jyo said...

Thanks Hurricane Ranger! It really is a hobby so I update when I can depending on what else is going on at the time. But good to have you on board. :)